Posted on 04/03/2005 9:42:49 AM PDT by Nachum
Official IDF sources predict that the withdrawal from Gaza will lead to Palestinian terrorism and violence worse than the previous intifadas, writes Yediot Acharonot's senior military correspondent.
IDF sources predict that immediately after the disengagement, the ceasefire is expected to end with terrorist attacks in and from Judea and Samaria. Among the threats are mortar and Kassam rockets on Israel's new toll-way Highway 6, as well as other areas in the coastal plain and the Afula area. The "regular" ambush attacks on roads, as well as attacks on army bases and towns in Judea and Samaria, are also expected.
The IDF Central Command is already preparing for the next round of armed conflict, correspondent Alex Fishman writes. It is assumedthat it will begin in September. The preparations are mainly in the form of trying to stop the massive weapons smuggling from Egypt into Gaza, and from there to Judea/Samaria.
The Palestinian terrorists are heavily-armed, Fishman writes: "Despite the successes in discovering arms-smuggling tunnels [between Egypt and Gaza], in the battle between smuggling and thwarting smuggling, the smugglers have won."
According to army estimates, in the eight-month period between July 2004 and February 2005, over 3,000 assault rifles were smuggled into Gaza, as well as 400,000 bullets, 400 pistols, and 600 kilograms of explosives.
In addition, over 180 anti-tank rocket launchers and 5 anti-aircraft rockets are now in the possession of the Palestinian terrorists.
The army recently intercepted a shipment of RPG anti-tank missile launchers at the Shoket Junction near Be'er Sheva, on their way to the Mt. Hevron region. Some 20 such launchers were recovered over the past year – as opposed to an unknown amount that have made their way in. Once the RPG rockets become a common weapon in Judea and Samaria, Fishman writes, "the IDF will no longer enjoy freedom of movement in its jeeps on the roadways, nor will it be able to use jeeps to pursue terrorists and make arrests in the cities... Is it conceivable that the army will only be able to use armed personnel carriers and tanks in Judea and Samaria? And what about the civilian traffic?"
In short, Fishman sums up, "stopping the smuggling has become a matter of national existence. It is liable to spell the difference between a diplomatic agreement and a comprehensive war against the Palestinians."
The Mossad, the police, the Shabak (General Security Service), government offices, and the army have all begun working in various ways to collect intelligence and try to thwart smugglings, and the work is being concentrated in the office of the Operations Commander in the IDF General Staff.
Fishman notes that three attempts have already been made in the Shomron to launch Kassam rockets. Arutz-7 reported that a plot to manufacture deadly Kassam rockets there was thwarted last week with the arrest of eight Islamic Jihad terrorist cell members in Jenin. Earlier in the month, the IDF discovered a Kassam rocket factory near Jenin.
This is most likely Israeli propaganda to keep the enemy on the run... I do believe there will be a full blown Middle East War in the not to distant future, but certainly the Israelis are not going to broadcast the timing to their enemy. They're way to smart for that.
I don't blame the State Dep't. I blame one man & one man only: Sharon. If he hadn't betrayed the Likud's ideals, there would be no disengagement.
I don't blame the State Dep't. I blame one man & one man only: Sharon. If he hadn't betrayed the Likud's ideals, there would be no disengagement.Sharon initially only accepted disengagement/the road map grudgingly, even though it is essential to a lasting peace in the region. If you want to "blame" someone, blame President Bush, who has been prodding Israel in that direction basically since his first Inauguration.
-Eric
I agree that what we are seeing today is just a kabuki dance leading up to the big war. I suspect that the Gaza withdrawl and all the concessions are about establishing that the Israelis are doing everything possible to come to terms with the Palestians. When all the withdrawls and concessions have been made including the creation of a Palestinian state and the Palestinians respond with even more outrageous violence , then the Israelis will be in a good position to finish this once and for all.
If you want to "blame" someone, blame President Bush, who has been prodding Israel in that direction basically since his first Inauguration.
Exactly, disengagement was Sharon's idea (actually Mitzna's Sharon campaigned against it) and he sold it to Bush not the other way around.
I have always thought this struggle will not end till one side no longer exists. I do not see how it can end any other way. I wish it were different, but I think not.
That was the same insane logic they used to take the first blows during the Yom Kippur war. It probably resulted in an extra thousand dead Israelis and they did not get much credit for it. By now the Israelis should have learned that dead Jews do not buy them sympathy and even if it did, that is an insane bargain.
They wouldn't accept it without Jerusalem. That was (and IMHO always will be) the sticking point.
It's not only Bush, but Clinton before him with the Land for Peace deal that Arafat refused, but the entire European Union is behind the giveaway of Israeli land for peace. Just goes to show ya that the Arabs do not really want peace with Israel or Arafat would have accepted the Oslo Accord during the Clinton admiistration.Arafat accepted Oslo, which had nothing to do with Clinton.
You're thinking of Camp David. Camp David sounded like a good deal for the Palis, but actually it was not as Israel would have maintained "long term indefinite control" of key areas such as the entire western bank (as opposed to West Bank) of the Jordan River. Clinton wanted a deal that would give him a legacy not involving a blue dress, but also one that wouldn't hurt Barak (some of his aides were helping his campaign in Israel) or Hillary's chances in New York. He tried to pressure Arafat into taking it. Arafat called his bluff and walked away.
Barak, without Clinton's influence, offered the Palis a much better deal at Taba, that they were willing to discuss further. He lost the election, Sharon took over, and the "Education of the PM" had to begin anew.
-Eric
The Bush Doctrine will ensure that the Pali's get their own state, shortly after Syria is broken and the Iranian Party of God (sic) and Iranian forces are disrupted adjacent to Israel.... Then and only then, if the State of Pali cannot or will not prevent terrorism on her own soil and refuses overtures from the US, NATO and the EU to place Multi-National Force Observers on their land, Israel will for the FIRST TIME have the right to prosecute a war against a real State, rather than occupied terror-tories. This will be a win-win solution to the constant analogy's of the failed states in the region. Israel will have to endure more death and destruction, but her patience will ensure the destruction of the Iranian-Syria Terrorism.
I disagree. The Israelis took the first blows in the Yom Kippur war because they had grown complacent. The senior brass did not see the threat. Give some credit to the Egyptians here. Unlike previous efforts they did a good job of preparing for the Yom Kippur war.
I may have miquoted my agreements, per say, but the point I was trying to make is that both Clinton and Bush have the same agenda for Israel and that is to give the heart land of Israel away, and Arafat did not really want peace with the Jews to begin with.
The solution is capture Jerusalem, deport the Pali inhabitants, even the crones in wheel chairs, capture the Temple mount, discuss disaassembly of the mosque..... then begin negotiations.
The only rational thing is to ensure that there will not be a next generation. The Palis have a choice. Let them back off, or go extinct!
Those abominations should be bulldozed off the Temple Mount,
and the sons of Ishmael should be deported to their homeland
of Jordan down to the last man, woman, and child.
The day before the war started the Israelis saw it coming and the Israeli military recommended a preemptive strike. Golda Meir turned it down saying she wanted the world to clearly see who started the war. I cannot tell you how many Israeli lives may have been saved by that preemptive strike but I suspect it would have been quite a few.
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