Slate commenting on religious matters is a little like Linda Lovelace talking about sexual purity.
HOWEVER....
It is obvious from any list of possible papal candidates that there is a good chance of a Pope from Latin America, South America, and/or Africa (or even India). One from Belgium is a noted liberal.
As I recall my history, there have already been 3 black Popes: Saint Victor I, who reigned from 189 to 199 A.D., Saint Miltiades, who reigned from 311 to 314, and Saint Gelasius I, who reigned from 492 to 496.
Gelasius was from Africa, but Roman North Africa: and most of the racial stock at the time was Berber or Punic - in other words, semitic at best. Not negroid.
None of these three persons was black. All three were African Romans, and thus would have been of Mediterranean or Semitic ancestry.
I think that one of the most important parts of the analysis is the focus on demographics. It will be fascinating to see what role pure demographics plays in this "race" for the ring as the profile of the Catholic Church has changed dramatically in the past 26 years. Also, with 96% of these cardinals having been appointed by JPII himself, it will be interesting to deduct what they perceive as the most pressing issues facing the church in the 21st century. JPII hung on against all odds and appointed cardinals at a furious pace, against much criticism. He virtually wiped out any Commie-sympathizing factors within the college and these current cardinals are the ones who will, when all is said and done, carry his legacy forward.