Posted on 03/31/2005 1:56:57 PM PST by nickcarraway
NEW YORK (AFX) - Oil prices have entered the early stages of trading that could lead to a 'super spike' with the potential to move prices to $105 per barrel, enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
The call, which would mean a possible doubling of oil prices from their current level, sent crude back above $55 per barrel for the first time in a week. The contract for May delivery was last quoted up 2.4 percent at $55.30, having earlier touched a high of $55.55.
'The strength in oil demand and economic growth, especially in the United States and China, following a year of $40-$50 per barrel WTI oil has surprised us... The reason for this adjustment in view is that persistent high prices are improving the financial position of key oil exporting countries and could serve to keep potential revolution at bay,' said analyst Arjun Murti.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron.com, said $105 oil is technically possible but not likely for at least 3 years and only if a major supply disruption, such as a halt to imports from Saudi Arabia, occurred. 'The timing of the report was conducive to the rally,' Flynn said. 'It's just another reason to be long. There's no doubt we're in a new bull market for crude oil.' Hear audio interview.
John Kilduff, energy risk analyst Fimat USA, agreed that the $105 price assumes a major supply disruption in Saudi Arabia or a Venezuelan embargo on shipments to the U.S.
'I don't know how they get to that number, short of a significant supply disruption event occurring,' he said. 'It's more reflective, to be fair, of the psychology of the energy market right now that there's going to be tremendous demand growth in the late third and the fourth quarter of this year. That's going to put the producers of crude oil in an extremely challenging position in terms of meeting that demand, and that's what is being priced in right now.'
Analyst Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International said the Goldman call was irresponsible and 'clearly an attempt to talk up the market on nothing more than hot air. Goldman has huge speculative energy positions and they have no interest in watching it go down right now.' Goldman's previous 'spike' high for oil was $80 a barrel. The brokerage also raised spot forecasts for WTI spot oil - West Texas Intermediate spot oil, the benchmark crude that trades daily on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- to $50 for 2005 and $55 for 2006. Its previous forecasts were $41 in 2005 and $40 in 2006.
Murti also said earnings consensus for oil and gas companies ought to grow by 21 percent and 35 percent, respectively in 2005 and 2006, as those stocks stand to outperform the broader market.
The return could be 80 percent if prices hit a super spike, he said.
Murti recommends adding to positions in the oil sector 'at current prices, on a pullback, or even after rallies,' and raised 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates across the board.
But you can bet those profits are "obscene" to some folks...
Not all taxes of course(I'm really not sure how much do) but some of these taxes on gas go to the making and maitenance of roads.
It's only logical that those who use the roads.. pay for them.
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