Posted on 03/17/2005 2:52:47 PM PST by Cornpone
PARIS, March 17 (AFP) - For the first time a majority of French say they plan to vote 'no' in the national referendum on the European constitution to be held in May, according to a poll to be published Friday in the daily Le Parisien.
According to the poll, carried out by the CSA institute, 51 percent intend to vote 'no' and 49 percent 'yes'.
Less than half of French voters are likely to vote in the May 29 referendum, with 53 percent of respondents saying they will abstain or cast blank ballots.
The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday among a representative sample of 802 over the age of 18.
The margin of error were not immediately available. The latest poll is likely to worry French President Jacques Chirac, who has been campaigning hard for a yes vote.
But the French electorate, angry over economic and labour reforms imposed by the conservative government and wary over Chirac's push to have Turkey become an EU member in the future, is in a volatile mood.
Street protests have been gathering pace in recent weeks and reached a crescendo last Thursday with a crippling national strike in a scene reminiscent of demonstrations in 1995 that eventually brought down the previous centre-right government.
With public support slipping away and the prospect of France -- one of the founding states of the EU, and its second-biggest economy -- becoming the country that torpedoes the EU constitution, Chirac had brought forward plans for the referendum.
Late last month, both houses of the French parliament held a rare joint session in the palace of Versailles to modify France's 1958 constitution so that the referendum on the EU charter can go ahead.
The main parties, Chirac's ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and the opposition Socialists, have officially backed a 'yes' vote, though both have dissident members who say they will join the Communist Party and the far right in voting against.
Former EU commission president Jacques Delors warned of a "political cataclysm" in France in the case of a 'no' vote, in an interview to be published Friday by the newspaper Le Progres.
"If the 'no' prevails, France will be in for a political cataclysm," he said. "In Europe, it will open a very serious crisis which will slow down European construction, to the disadvantage of France," he said.
Delors said he was opposed to calling a referendum to adopt the constitution as a vote by parliament "is as important democratically as a referendum".
The constitution aims to streamline decision-making and forge a more coherent joint foreign policy in the European Union, which is finding its current procedures -- often requiring the unanimity of members -- unwieldy following the bloc's expansion last year from 15 to 25 states.
France and another nine EU member states are to call their voters out to decide the matter. Denmark announced late last month that it would hold its plebiscite on September 27.
Britain -- whose citizens are the most eurosceptic in the European Union -- has yet to announce a date for its referendum, reluctantly agreed to by Prime Minister Tony Blair, though it looks likely to take place in the first half of 2006.
The remaining 15 EU members have decided to ratify the charter through their parliaments, without putting it directly before voters -- a choice that has generated some resentment, particularly in Germany, the EU's biggest economy and biggest contributor to EU coffers.
Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia have already ratified the constitution via parliamentary vote.
To paraphrase General Patton, I'd rather have an french enemy in front of me than a french "friend" in back of me.
I suspect that the coddling of islamists is a motive for this apparent "mini-revolt" by the proles.
And BTW, if that EU constitution is adopted
I think you may have missed something. See post #3. I thought I was unambiguous, but in my joy may have given a different impression. I'm not for the EU Constitution.
I also think we are basically like minded. France is a big fish in an increasingly smaller European pond. However, the other fish in that pond increasingly have options to move to a bigger pond that France is not in.
"There's no possibility that the EU would allow the "NO" to win. Even if 65% voted, they would find a way to change that."
Ah, they need to borrow Hugo Chavez's voting machines!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...in their dreams. It's only "conservative" in comparison to communism.
However, the other fish in that pond increasingly have options to move to a bigger pond that France is not in.
Conditional agreement provided the Constitution is not adopted. Once bound to that Constitution those options are significantly reduced. Unfortunately I am of opinion Europe will adopt the Constitution even if it suffers a few setbacks.
It can't bring down Chirac's government. He's elected to a fixed term, like the US President.
It might bring down his center-right control of Parliament and return it to the Socialist/Communist "gauche plurielle".
Who can say?
But a stolen election is only possible if the vote is close, and if the People get wind of a real stolen election in France, that WILL bring down Chirac. There will be general strikes and a nationwide - peaceful - revolution.
The French do not take shit from their government.
When they are angry, really angry, they go into the streets by the millions, and the government ALWAYS caves, because the alternative is that the French go into the streets by the tens of millions. And then they start going into government buildings and pulling people out. French union tactics are thuggish and violent, and the Communists oppose this EU vote.
I do not think the government will be able to truly pull off an election theft in France. For one thing, there will not be electronic voting. For another, the vote counters and folks carrying the ballots around by truck will all be Communist union syndicated members. They will be vigilant.
This EU Constitution is a "bridge too far", to use an expression I like a lot. It is not good for France. It is good for the Enarques, because they believe they will rule Europe. But they will slip out of the control of the French. Of course, there will be a full-court-press of persuasion.
I think it will not pass.
It will be just like the Governor's Race in Washington State. They will keep recounting until they get the result they want.
I am very grateful to Victor Davis Hanson for his book "The Soul Of Battle". He made me really understand how great a General and leader Patton was. His analysis will be with me the rest of my life.
Kerryism at work
Unfortunately I am of opinion Europe will adopt the Constitution even if it suffers a few setbacks.
I hope not, but if so... c'est la vie.
And bring in Jimmy Carter to bless the whole scam.
You'll find this old article interesting about Villepin
.....They have no military power and their economic power is waning, rapidly.......
They will be eclipsed economically by a rapidly expanding and financially powerful Gulf Cooperation Council that will soon add Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. Egypt ? perhaps.
The vibrant economies East of Suez will produce a darkness across Europe.
You got it.
The vibrant economies East of Suez will produce a darkness across Europe.
OK. You've convinced me. Where can I invest the dollar in the 'East of Suez' opportunity that I was going to buy a lottery ticker with this week?
Now what should I do with that dollar next week? I think I'll look into the Duchy of Grand Fenwick.
Also their economy is in such a mess a more hard left government will not be able to help only make it worse.
Old joke:
A man walks into a bookstore.
MAN: Excuse me. Do you know where I can find a copy of the French Constitution?
PROPRIETOR: I'm sorry, we don't carry periodicals.
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