The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
2005 Update
By Jeff Head, February 2005


As an update to the original "Rising Sea Dragon in Asia", that I publiushed in January of 2004 (and have been writing and warning about since 2000), I offer this update, dated in February of 2005. This report is fairly short and broad, and I believe does not contain the detail necessary to reflect the true scope of the emerging threat. But it does clearly indicate the nature and size of the current Red Chinese buildup, and their is only one principle power that such a buildup can be directed at, the United States military.

Regarding the continuing naval buildup, the Chinese have already built and launched two of the brand new, very modern, Aegis type Lanzhou Class destroyers, two of the new Guangzhou Class guided missile destroyers, two new Ma'anshan Class guided missile frigates, four of the new large Type 73 Amphibious Assault ships (that's right, four in a very short time frame and more building...can you guess what these are inded for?), and a class of very modern diesle-electric attack subs. In addition, the west has now seen another new class, dubbed the Type 51C that was just launched in December of 2005 in the Dalian, Liaoning Province. Another area air defense destroyer similar to the Type 52C, Lanzho class, this new class is similar in appearance to the Arleigh Burke class original batch destroyers, and is based on the late 1990's Luhai class hull.. It has an Aegis type air defense capability, but no helo facilities, while the two new Type 52C's are similar to the Arliegh Burke Batch IIA ships, with onboard helicopter landing and housing facilities.

All of this is in addition to acquiring four very modern and capable Hangzhou Class destroyers from Russia and a total of twelve very modern Russian diesel-electric subs, as well as currently building their own new and modern classes of nuclear attack subs and ballistic missile submarines, along with continuing heavy research into aircraft carrier design and/or refitting.

The efforts continue unabated as the Red Chinese continue to build or aquire these EIGHT new classes of ships simultaneously at a rapid pace. Eight new classes of ships at once represents a HUGE outlay in technology and capital across the board. It is almost unheard of and is representative of the massive arms build-up the Red Chinese are embarked upon with their new found wealth. If continued, it can have but one goal in mind, a direct challenge for naval dominance in the Pacific Rim and beyond. As stated, that challenege is a direct one to the United States Navy.

In the mean time, the Chinese are also modernizing their naval air forces at a rapid pace, acquiring or license building hundreds of modern SU-27, SU-27SK, and SU-30 aircraft from Russia, many with very credible strike at sea, air to surface missile capabiulities. They are also building their own new J-10 aircraft. Within the past two to three years these efforts represent a quantum leap in terms of the quality of the Red Chinese equipment and the rate at which they are being built or otherwise put into service.

Here are some recent pics.

The brand new construction and launch of the area air defense, Aegis-like, Type 51C Class destroyer.


The new Lanzhou Class (Type 52C) Aegis-like destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Guangzhou Class (Type 52B) Guided Missile Destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Hangzhou Class (Type 951/EM) guided missile destroyers. Four acquired from Russia in the last five years, two already in service, two more in 2005. They carry the Russian Sunburn or Moskit cruise missiles, designed to attack US Aircraft Carriers.


The new Ma'anshan Class (Type 054) Guided Missile frigates. Two launched in late 2003, will be in service in early 2005.


Two of the new Type 73 Amphibious Assault Ship class, of which three have already been built.


The new Yuan Class SSK diesel/electric attack submanrine.


The new Russian acquired Kilo Class SSK diesle/electric attack submarines, of which four have been acquired and EIGHT MORE are on order.


Coninued outfitting of the former Russian Vayrag at the Dalian shipyards.


Red Chinese SU-30 and SU-27SK (J11) and SU-27 aircraft.


The chinese Produced J-10 attack fighter.

As these ships are produced in numbers and as the Chinese continue with their across the board naval buildup and their carrier development plans towards ultimately lauching their own, the balance of power in the China Sea and western Pacific is going to hang in the balance. Do not forget, the Chinese have purchased and are studying and apparently refitting western style and Russian aircraft carriers. Their intentions in this regard, with the production of all the support and defense ships necessary to form carrier battle groups of their own is clear. Even without those groups, they are poducing a formidable force to challenge our groups in the inner island chain in the western Pacific.

While the Chinese experience level with this equipment is lacking and will be very much inferior to the decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point. If within range of large numbers of land-based aircraft and missiles, and if coupled with modern, capable weapons systems like the Sunburn or Moskit missiles and perhaps supercavitiating torpedo technology, a credible threat to American naval supremecy in the western Pacific could be posed in the next few years...and this does not even address their continued rapid buildup of ballistic missiles and modernization program across the board of their land based armed forces, which are proceeding at a similar pace as that described here regarding their navy and naval air forces.

Although the hefty12-14% increase in direct military expenditures of the Red Chinese (and this does not include dual use and so-called private sector input to the defense apparatus-just remeber, in the Red Chinese system, there is no real private sector) represents a small proportion of US Military outlays, remember as well that a significant portion of western outlays goes towards relatively high salaries, benefits, and health care costs that the Chinese system is not burdened with. In terms of outlays towards pure military weapons systems directly, the Chinese are rapidly catching up with western numbers. All of this bears very serious consideration and planning.

While we do so, consider this: As stated, the Chinese are currently building and launching eight modern, entire classes of major combatant vessels (not including the two new nuclear attack and strategic missile submarines)...simultaneously. This is a monumental achievement and compares to the United States Navy which is currently building and launching three new classes of major combatants (the Virginia class subs, the San Antonio class LPDs, and the continuing Burk class destroyers) with plans for two to three more U.S. classes in the future Clearly the Chinese and the PLAN are serious about their future naval capabilities in the China Sea and western Pacific and are rapidly building up across the board to implement them. This should be be reminiscent to our senior citizens who experienced it, or anyone who has studied history, of the rapid buildup of adversary military in the 1930s. We all know where that led.

Again, there can only be one power that the Red Chinese intend to, and must, confront if conflict over geo-political policy comes into play...and that is the U.S. Navy. Such tremendous development, building and launching of vessels indicate that they intend to do just that and their intentions, capabilities and funding in this regard cannot be underestimated.

Copyright © 2005, by Jeff Head

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Jeff Head (jeffhead.com) is an engineering consultant who has many years of experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently wotrks for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and he is also the author of a self-published and best-selling fictional series of military techno-thrillers about future military confrontation with the Red Chinese called the Dragon's Fury Series of novels (dragonsfuryseries.com) that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events.

You can read about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES OF NOVELS

[Paul_Denton]

What I mean is a nuclear arsenal to deter China from even invading. The whole point is the status of MAD. Would china risk mutually assured destruction?

[GOP_1900AD]

It's even worse than that. For all but a few Western headquartered companies, it is the *promise* of future riches. Most companies selling in the PRC have yet to see major ROI. The biggest benificiaries thus far are those who have sourced there, allowing some incremental cost reduction, but, far short of what was predicted during the early 90s when everyone started to re source from the Americas (as well as other Asian locations) to the PRC. So even there, given the reduction in quality, the ROI may be negligable. But having gone through all the trouble to bring up suppliers (and their own joint venture factories) in the PRC, they now are trying to stick it out, asking for greater cost reductions while beating up the supply chain on quality. What a mistake it has all been .....

[GOP_1900AD]

Good point there, regarding Sino-Russian coordination. The likes of which has not been seen since the early 1950s.

[Paul_Denton]

The Iowa's were fairly heavily modernized when they were reactivated back in the 1980's, including the addition of Harpoon and Tomahawk cruise missiles and CIWS defense systems. If they are teamed up with multiple AEGIS cruisers or destroyers for air defense and a frigate or two for anti-submarine protection, they would be a formidable combat platform.

Not only that, but give the cannons modern shells such as RAP (Roacket Assisted Projectile), guided shells and other advanced munitions and they would be formidable too. Plus the big 16 inch guns are just plain awesome.

[Stonewall Jackson]

That would be a good idea. I heard somewhere that the navy was testing a rocket-boosted 16" shell capable of hitting targets almost one hundred miles away. Those shells have a danger-close radius of one thousand yards. Can you imagine coming under bombardment from one or two of these monsters?

Another elderly gunship still in the US arsenal is the old heavy cruiser Des Moines, currently in mothballs in Philadelphia (I believe). While this ship has been out of commission since the 1960's and would require an extensive modernization before it could re-enter service, its nine 8-inch guns are each capable of firing fifty rounds a minute. Her sister-ship Newport News saw service off Vietnam and was deeply feared and respected by the North Vietnamese for her accuracy and firepower.

[Jeff Head]

Seeing the Chinese produce two and three units a year on EIGHT new major combatant classes is sobering. If they keep that production rate up, or increase it, we are going to see first a lot of their vessels, then a lot of their ordinance in the very near future.

Now, until they can crack our hard nut, the CBG protected by AEGIS and SSN's, they arer still going to suck hind tit and end up on the bottom. But, if they come up with say a combination of Sunburn/Moskit supersonic SSMs in numbers and a credible super-cavitating submersable threat, we could be into some serious hurt.

Thanks for weighing in.

[Jeff Head]

We are going to have those type of shells on the smaller, 5-inch guns of the DDX. They were highly discussed for the Iowas and I do not believe there is any reason we could not make it work. We just have to have the will. The Iowas may yet see more service. I know our adversaries, including the Russians, were scared to death of them after their refit in the 80's under Reagan.

[killjoy]

In the late 1970s, under guidance from the USSR, Vietnamese troops took over Cambodia and eventually made incursions into Thailand. Lacking the once present US troops and bases, Thailand went to the PRC for help.

Do you have a source for this?

[Paul_Denton]

its nine 8-inch guns are each capable of firing fifty rounds a minute.

Thats almost as fast as the 5 inch guns currently in use. The Navy is indeed getting interested in guns again. Check this out.

The BB64 Wisconsin is in Class B mobilization status, but I do not know what that means. BB61 Iowa shares that status.

[killjoy]

I wonder why Taiwan bans guns? They have very good reason to allow people to own them. I hope some day they are legalized there.

Some of the Aboriginals do own guns and use them for hunting. It is quite common to hear gunshots up in the mountains.

[Jeff Head]

It was a straw man to begin with. I do not believe the Chinese ever had, or have any intention of their masses rising up out of the abject poverty they are in and becoming the vast market western companies drooled over. They were just led to believe it would be that way. They are too useful for cheap labor and much easier to control.

Having been over there in the late 1990's and into 2000, if you look closely, I'll wager dollars to doughnuts that the vast majority of the individuals benefiting from the new found Chinese propserity are noneother than the same old communist party members from the old Maoist system. Problem is, when you have 7 or 8% of 1.3 billion, you are talking about 100 million individuals who are looking good. They can put on quite the show...and they do.

[Paul_Denton]

Well I hope some time that expands to all of the people there. Glad to know at least somone of them have guns.

[Last Dakotan]

Fascinating, thanks for the post.

[s_asher]

"True free market competition does work wonders when both parties are playing pretty much on the same ground and from the same "free" perspective. The so-called "Free Trade" we are conducting with China is decidedly not the case. They plan to bury us and we are fueling their drive to do it."

If China or any other country feels that they can "win" by subsidies or fixed conversion rate, I'd argue that protectionist policies (such as subsidies) will ultimately make you less competitive in the marketplace, because the subsidies will be pulled sooner or later.

The goal of a competition is to win - at the expense of your competitor. The Chinese are gunning for us because that's what they're supposed to do - compete. And we've already half buried ourselves through ridicious socialist policies.

In 1907, a 19 year boy named Jim Casey borrowed $100 to start a message delivery business. He worked hard and hired local kids to make deliveries on foot or bicycle. By offering lower prices and adding services (food delivery), the company grew over its competition and later became UPS.

Today if a 19 year old wants to start a delivery business in San Francisco, he'd have to pay $8.62/hr minimum wage to hire some kid just to deliver a $10 pizza down the street:
http://www.sfgov.org/site/mayor_page.asp?id=28520

We could ban trade with China today and it wouldn't do a bit of good in making us more competitive. The jobs will simply shift from China to Vietnam or elsewhere. The only way to "win" is to excel above our competition. So far all I've seen are losers who are afraid to admit that they're overpaid and need to update their job skills.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Too many on these threads using emotion instead of facts

Because emotion is easy and facts are hard.

[B4Ranch]

"they are studying it and learning", while America maintains a collective amnesia of world war and communism. It seems we have achieved it from the legislature to the mid schools.

[judicial meanz]

Class B mobilization status means they can be ready for deployment in 20-120 days of a crisis, even though they are currently tourist attractions.

That was one of the conditions of their museum display status.

In my opinion, they are still in that category as an offset to the Peter the Great class of Russian ballte cruisers, which are in commission and active.

[B4Ranch]

>>Too many on these threads using emotion instead of facts to demonize a great American success story.<<

"We're an "empire," ain't we? Sure we are. An empire without a manufacturing base. An empire that must borrow $2 billion a day from its competitors in order to function. Yet the delusion is ineradicable. We're No. 1. Well...this is the country you really live in:"

When you are done reading ask yourself if these are the characteristics of a persevering winner or a nation that is in reverse? Are we striving for continued superiority or servitude to the United Nations?

[Mulder]

Thanks for the update Jeff. You look to the future in your assessments, instead of the past like so many posters here.

Just because our Navy is superior to China's today, doesn't mean that will be so 20 years from now.

Who will manufacture our ships in 20 years? American plants are being shipped overseas, and American factory workers are being told that their skills are outdated and unwanted

Who will design the new technology for our military? American engineering jobs are being shipped overseas at an alarming rate. There is little incentive for American college students to study the hard sciences anymore.

Who will make the innovations necessary to maintain America's technological advanage? Any American school student that shows any signs of stubborn independence or excessive creativeness (all traits needed for new inventions), is either drugged or put in jail.

And so on.

The Freedom that made America great is virtually non-existent. We have become little more than a nation consisting of rule makers, enforcers, and slaves.

We *might* have been able to get away with that (for awhile anyway) while the rest of the world functioned under communism, the most unefficient economic system ever invented; but we will *not* be able to get away with it since China has transitioned to the relatively efficient system of facism.

A nation of 1.3 billion slaves (China) trumps a nation of 300 million slaves (Amerika).

Barring some sort of massive change in the mindset of most Americans, the Republic is over. China will have her way with us, as if this nation was a drunken, drug-addicted street whore.

I suppose in retrospect, things had to return to the normal state of human affairs. Might makes right. Money and power are everything. Worship the state and the men who run the state.

America was but a brief anomaly. It was nice while it lasted.

My only desire at this point is that the fools and traitors responsible for our demise live to experience the fruits of the efforts; instead of just leaving their kids and grandkids to experience it.

Thanks again for all your efforts to stop the tidal wave. Yes, it is still worth fighting for, even if we lose in the end.

[Eastbound]

Ominous! Thanks for the ping, Jeff.