The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

[GOP_1900AD]

You better hope for two things:
1) That they don't all of the sudden double or triple their serial production of military ships.
2) That they are alone, and not accompanied in an axis by other very anti Western players.

[GOP_1900AD]

Yep. That's true. It will take another Pearl Harbor-like disaster to wipe away all the nonsensical thinking.

[Jeff Head]

We are already seeing it. They are producing EIGHT new CLASSES of major combatant ships, and each one is being produced at rates of two or more ships per year.

...and that is on a prepratory footing, not a war footing. If they get serious, they will be cranking out ships like we did at the end of WW II.

...and at that point, we'd better be prepared to bomb all of it into rubble very quickly and not pussy foot around with some type of regional playing field thingy around Taiwan.

If we got serious economically right now, we could mitigate it and shut it down before it gets into any high gear.

[Paul_Denton]

You better hope for two things: 1) That they don't all of the sudden double or triple their serial production of military ships. 2) That they are alone, and not accompanied in an axis by other very anti Western players.

I hope they do not increase their ship production but it will probebly happen. Ours is in sad shape.

Every day, europe is siding more and more with China. The EU does not seem to care that there will be sanctions (which will ruin their economy even more than it is now), they are all gung ho about supporting China.

[houeto]

Wow! 7.5% of Wal Mart's total purchases ($15 billion from China) takes up more than 70% of their shelf space.

Shelf space?!? Now where in the sam hill did you come up with SHELF SPACE???

Talk about....Wow!

[houeto]

OTOH, purchases from American based suppliers totaled $137.5 billion in 2004

And another thing, where a supplier is "based" has nothing to do with where the products are made.

[Mac94]

Conventionally, I agree, that's why if China were to make a move, they'd attempt to "defeat" us by sidelining us in the conflict so that the 7th Fleet or the USAF, etc. isn't a factor. The 7th would only become involved if attacked or given orders to do so, and if China can force us to the sidelines via political and economic carrots/sticks, then all the firepower the 7th Fleet has is pointless in a PRC/Tiawan war.

[Paul_Denton]

Ultimatly Taiwan and Japan need nuclear weapons. If they had a nuclear deterrant than we would not be facing this crisis.

[Mase]

"You all are arguing about Wal Mart when you ought to be looking at computers, and other electronics, including even the innards of DoD equipment and weapons systems."
_____________________

Agreed. Just getting tired of being told that because I buy a space heater and some garden tools from Wal Mart that I'm enslaving people and compromising the security of the country.

Too many on these threads using emotion instead of facts to demonize a great American success story.

[houeto]

You all are arguing about Wal Mart when you ought to be looking at computers, and other electronics, including even the innards of DoD equipment and weapons systems. Is the Wal Mart debate a smoke screen, preventing substantive debate acout ICs, PCBAs, computuers, RF amplifiers, rare earth minerals, and the like?

I wish I'd never even MENTIONED Wal-Mart.

[RikaStrom]

Ping a ling

[houeto]

If we got serious economically right now, we could mitigate it and shut it down before it gets into any high gear.

The problem is too many Western pockets getting rich off Chinese slave labor. There is no will to stop.

[Mac94]

Well, it would make any Chinese move across the Strait a much greater risk.

In a calculated risk, though, could Taiwan, politically speaking, go nuclear in response to a naval blockade? Nukes would be advantageous in defending against an actual invasion and detering the Chinese from using it's nuclear weapons, but would a blockade strategy by China warrent such a response?

Taiwan using nuclear weapons in a struggle with China would be somewhat akin to Israel's Sampson option except for the near term it wouldn't have enough firepower to bring down the Chinese house. It would send Taiwan out in a blaze of glory, but would mean the end of Taiwan. Israel, though, has the internal fortitude (most likely) to use this type of weapon in such a way. Their history prepares them for this. Does Taiwan's political leadership have the same nerve to order the destruction of their own people and nation?

[Mase]

"Now where in the sam hill did you come up with SHELF SPACE???"
_______________

Where in the sam hill did you come up with imports from China comprise more than 70% of the total items in the store???

Do you really think that more than 70% of their total items purchased yields less than 8% of their total revenue? Regardless of how much shelf space more than 70% of their items occupy, my math makes it highly unlikely any retailer would allow more than 70% of their items purchased to generate less than 8% of their total revenue.

Retailers evaluate their operation based on sales and profit per square foot by product, by category, by department etc. Your assumption would necessitate that Wal Mart immediately and significantly reduce the size of their stores.

Or, you could be wrong about what is meant by "commodities".

[Phsstpok]

They deploy as part of training exercises. The same way as other US strategic bomber fly out to ranges in the UK and all the way back after dropping bombs as part of global projection missions.

Yes, that's true.

Not every deployment of a strategic bomber is a warning/threat sabre rattling or impending action. To listen to some Freepers on the subject they are convinced that they are off to drop bombs on North Korea within the week!

But not every deployment is a training exercise, either. To ignore the possibility is to stick one's head in the sand. To ask the question is the right thing to do, particularly in the context of this article about the PLAs build up.

Some might call your attitude a bit "Pollyannaish." A little like saying "we can launch the Space Shuttle when it's freezing out there, nothing will go wrong." The other way to express your apparent attitude is as a "glass half full" optimist.

The flip side, of course, would be to characterize me as a "glass half empty" pessimist. Well I'm not.

However, I really would like to know if the glass has poison in it.

Apocryphal quote from Socrates: "I drank what?"

My attitude, of course, makes me a paranoid. A label I'm proud to wear in today's world. If you're not paranoid you're not paying attention.

[judicial meanz]

Personally I think this is the reason for the sudden friendship and military alliance between Russia and China. It reeks of a pragmatic mutual alliance bent on reducing American influence in the world through military, economic, economic, and political alliances.

When you add Russia and China's shipbuilding capacity together against ours, we are in a world of serious hurt. They have not really reduced anything from Cold War levels of production. They simply build more commerical shipping to fill the gaps that they have in warship construction.

You guys are right on target. We are in for rough days ahead, especially if our Senate and House dont get on the same page and start filling the gaps before it becomes too late.

[Mase]

And another thing, where a supplier is "based" has nothing to do with where the products are made.
____________________

From walmartfacts.com:

'Wal-Mart estimates that we purchased about $18 billion from China last year -- about $9 billion imported from direct sources and about $9 billion from indirect sources -- compared to $137.5 billion spent last year with all kinds of suppliers in the U.S.'

Seems pretty clear to me. They even break out how much they bought directly from China and through indirect sources which gives even more credibility to the amount they claim to have purchased from American suppliers right here in the USA. That leaves about $42 billion in purchases from other assorted countries.

So, do you still think that $179.5 billion of their total purchases in 2004 account for less than 30% of the total items sold at Wal Mart?

[Jeff Head]

FYI

[Stonewall Jackson]

The Iowa's were fairly heavily modernized when they were reactivated back in the 1980's, including the addition of Harpoon and Tomahawk cruise missiles and CIWS defense systems. If they are teamed up with multiple AEGIS cruisers or destroyers for air defense and a frigate or two for anti-submarine protection, they would be a formidable combat platform.

[Jeff Head]

Yep...I would add some Rolling Air Frame missiles (RAMS) for more comprehensive Close in support too.