Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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National Warning Map

Clickable Map Here

Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

National Radar Loop

National Radar Summary

U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[Mother Goose]

Thank you, tomkat. I got blasted last week for sounding "pious," so I realize I am a "trepid" freshman trying to fit in with the seniors.

FreeRepublic is such an incredible place to be - just listening would be fine, but I can't help but pipe up once in a while. Thanks again, oh mighty cat.

[joonbug]

Yes more global warming. I wish AlGore would explain all of this.

[Capt. Tom]

This is forcast as a run of the mill Noreaster here on the cost south of Boston. - Tom

Updated: 9:25 PM EST on February 27, 2005 Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Monday afternoon to Tuesday morning...

Coastal Flood Watch in effect from Monday evening to Tuesday morning...

Overnight
Partly cloudy. Lows around 16. West winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming northwest after midnight.

Monday
Partly cloudy in the morning...then mostly cloudy with snow likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Detail Monday Night
Snow...mixing with or changing to rain after midnight. Snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches possible. Very windy. Not as cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph

[Dat Mon]

"Ann just melts whenever she sees me."

Ha...mon...sorry its just global warming.

[Dat Mon]

Signup date shows up when you click on the name. Dont worry though, most folks dont particularly care...I happen to know that Libertarian mon from way back though...character he is!

And yo...Ed where the hell are you these days?

[Nick Danger]

Puhleeze toss a snowball toward a goofy liberal in m name.

That's hard to do; the Cato Institute is right down the block, and half the people walking by are libertarians. How 'bout if I get one of them for ya?

[technochick99]

Ugh... flying into Newark in the morning.

[Dat Mon]

"anyone says anything you tell them Joe said it was ok."

Thats an interesting concept. Maybe Ill try using this rationale in some personal relationships and see how it pans out.

[Dat Mon]

You got the Hurricane mon covered good!

I plan on checking in NBC10 at 11:00 to see how screwed up we're going to be come Tuesday. Looks like Monday is a nonstarter.

[hineybona]

No more pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeee..Where is the spring already !!!

[nwctwx]

I would have posted the info in the other thread if I saw it, I tried some searches before posting. Sorry again.

[Interesting Times]

p.s. Puhleeze toss a snowball toward a goofy liberal in m name.

Hey, I'm in Falls Church -- the odds are excellent.

It isn't snowing here yet, but I do have a couple of boxes of golf balls.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I need some education before I could be a storm predictor.... Geez!

[oceanview]

looking like the worst possible track for the east coast - its just offshore, 12 inches for the major east coast cities, NJ, etc. plus 50MPH winds. its blizzard material.

[Axenolith]

Because everything they say is really, really, really important...

[nwctwx]

It's coming together very nicely!! Of course, I love snow. ;)

The low is well east of earlier guidance, and the current predicted track is almost perfect for big city snows. Once this thing is off Cape Cod it will look a bit like a hurricane... just awesome!

[nwctwx]

[Axenolith]

DUDE! My EYES!

Put a filter on that thing ;-)

[LibFreeOrDie]

Ha! You think I understand all this meteorological jargon? I just pay attention when Todd Gross uses the term "bombogenesis."

Anyway, for Bostonians, here's Todd's technical notes as of 11PM:


"11pm Update:
Latest models are in, quizzically, they drop the intensity of that short-medium wave that caused all the concern and split between the models in the first place. This leads to an almost consensus now, although the ETA/NAM still insists on heaviest potential (even precipitation) inland, while the GFS and RGEM throw heavy precipitation just offshore. Those two bring the mix up to around Boston only briefly, the ETA/NAM has it in place a bit longer, but not until after the brunt of the precipitation is here. All models churn out less than an inch now, but based on the current organization of the precipitation area, and probable over 10:1 ratio and benchmark track, I am now going for just about a foot from Boston and just NW.. or in other words: Cape Ann, SW to Worcester. 8-12" south of the city, and 3-8" on the cape where BUFKIT analysis on the ETA produces maybe 2-3" in Chatham, and 7" or so in Hyannis. The problem is that the GFS is colder but the 00z BUFKIT GFS wasn't out yet before air time. It isn't impossible that the Cape could end up with healthy amounts.

One wild card that is left is the second vort max that I spoke of on Friday that eventually causes a regeneration over us by Tuesday evening. The warm advection field goes away so there isn't much to work with, but the GFS is becoming increasingly aggressive with that followup/backlash scenario... and at 500mb, so is the ETA/NAM. In fact, usually I draw surface systems on top of the 500mb chart as they should occur based on the interplay of short waves and ridges. This helps me to detect where low pressure may form in an otherwise weak environment. Sure enough, the surface is showing broad low pressure over us 00z Wednesday (7pm Tue. evening) and using the 500mb trick above, I find a more localized low pressure system offshore that arcs back to Cape Cod, that should be strenghtening, and feeding off slight warm advection Tuesday evening from offshore. With the 500mb low closing over us, light snow or even a burst of moderate is not out of the question Tuesday evening, but NW winds should inhibit anything meaningful Wednesday."

[hipaatwo]

Our local weatherman (Philly)went from 10-15" at 6pm to 8-12" at 11pm. Also said blizzard like conditons. But there is a forecaster at Accu-Weather saying the Philly forecasts are all hype.