Posted on 02/22/2005 12:22:26 AM PST by RWR8189
Poll puts parties just 3 points apart, as Blair fails to regain confidence
Labour's opinion poll lead has been cut to only three points in the last month as the Tory pre-election campaign gains momentum, according to the results of this month's Guardian/ICM opinion poll published today.
With the expected date of the general election only 72 days away the poll results will alarm Labour election strategists who fear Conservatives could use the intensive "phoney war" campaigning to close the gap between the parties.
Tony Blair effectively launched Labour's campaign a fortnight ago with his helicopter tour, the six pledges and the party's spring conference. He even attempted to bypass the Westminster media with a special meet-the-voters day courtesy of Channel Five.
But despite all this effort the ICM survey, which puts Labour on 37%, shows the government's lead over the Conservatives is down four points in the last month and has fallen from nine to only three points since December.
For all the frenzied activity in advance of a likely May 5 poll, it looks as though Labour's pre-election strategy - being masterminded by Alan Milburn and former director of communications Alastair Campbell - is in danger of proving a flop.
The ICM poll also shows that Gordon Brown has replaced Tony Blair as Labour's biggest electoral asset with the chancellor enjoying the same kind of cross-party respect that the prime minister had before his 1997 and 2001 general election victories.
The survey shows that Mr Blair's political appeal is confined to Labour's core voters who still see him as likeable and caring. But among the wider electorate the prime minister is regarded as arrogant, out of touch and untrustworthy and it appears that his hopes of rekindling his "marriage" with voters generally may prove shortlived.
While Mr Brown gets positive ratings from Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters they now see Mr Blair as a positive liability.
The apparent Conservative revival - they are on 34% compared with 30% in December - follows a spate of policy initiatives on immigration, pensions, health and crime upon which the Tories hope to build with new promises of tax cuts.
Their resurgence underlines Mr Blair's recent warnings to his party not to underestimate the Tories and that they remain as dangerous as ever.
Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat leader, is the only other politician, along with Gordon Brown, who is regarded as an asset to their party by a majority of voters in all three mainstream parties.
His party remains unchanged for the third month running on 21% and may benefit from Labour's relative decline from the 2001 election when 18% of the vote delivered Mr Kennedy's party 52 seats.
The Guardian/ICM poll also shows that Ken Livingstone, John Prescott and even Labour's campaign manager himself, Mr Milburn, are regarded generally by the voters as, on balance, election campaign liabilities. Mr Livingstone's ratings are so bad - even among Labour voters - that it would be wise for the party's managers to advise him to take a holiday during the campaign.
The ICM poll shows that the names of only four cabinet ministers are really recognised by the public - Gordon Brown, Tony Blair, John Prescott and Jack Straw.
Labour's leading women politicians - Patricia Hewitt, Tessa Jowell and Ruth Kelly - also suffer from a lack of public recognition with around 50% saying they do not know whether they were any good or not. But among those who have heard of them, Ms Hewitt and Ms Jowell both appeal almost as strongly to Liberal Democrat as to Labour voters.
Among the other parties, Michael Howard, appears to be quite well placed. His support among Conservative voters is as strong as Mr Blair's and Mr Brown's is among Labour voters and wins the respect of a significant minority of Labour and Liberal Democrats.
As for the minor parties, the nationalists of the SNP and Plaid Cymru take half the 8% share of the vote which goes to "other parties". The Greens secure 2% and the UK Independence party is becalmed on 1%.
· ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,013 adults aged 18 and over by telephone between 18-20 February, 2005. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
I like Blair, but who the hell would replace him if he were to step down or if he is pushed out?
Is there somewhere on the web I can go to get details on all of the Brit political party platforms as compared to US parties? I'd look myself but I'm at work and time is not my ally right now. Thanks!
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