German poll setback for Schroeder

BBC News ^ | February 20, 2005

[HAL9000]

An election in the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein has dealt a blow to Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, exit polls suggest.

His Social Democrats (SPD) won only 38.5% in the state election, behind the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) on 39.5%, according to the TV polls.

It is not yet clear whether the SPD will be ousted from power in the state.

The SPD had appeared to be bouncing back in opinion polls since losing a series of state elections last year.

Economic woes have compounded Mr Schroeder's problems

Heide Simonis (SPD) has been running Schleswig-Holstein since 1993. She is Germany's only female state leader.

Correspondents say a Danish minority party, the SSW, might now act as kingmaker in Schleswig-Holstein as the SPD struggles to retain power.

Unemployment in the state is even higher than the national average of about 11%.

It has some 2.2 million registered voters.

The state is governed by a coalition of the SPD and Green party - the same alliance forming the federal government.

Correspondents say the vote will indicate whether the government coalition has lost support because of a recent scandal over lax visa practices.

[seppel]

Muntefering, the socialist party hack, has already done the expected triangulation: "The election is contrary to the polls, but proves the socialists are out of the worst and heading for another country-wide win in 2006."

You need to be a socialist moron to believe that junk. However, I personally have misgivings about Schroeder and Fischer, they are godless closet communists. These people can only be removed from office by unusual circumstances. They are virtually glued to their seats of power.

The pervasive cultural lie here is that socialists are somehow more moral (?!) and socially just.

[AdrianR]

Update from Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aUWYgjv9aZ5Y&refer=europe
German TV projects 40.4% for CDU, 37.9% for SDP.

[Michael81Dus]

PRAY FOR A CHANGE IN SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN!!! If we can take over the government there, the voters in North-Rhine-Westphalia can make a 2/3 veto majority for the CDU/CSU/FDP in the Bundesrat (Upper House) possible!! May 22 could be decisive, so that Schröder would resign on May 23!! :-)

[OldFriend]

Before we pray for Schroeder to be gone, tell me about his replacement.

Thanks.

[longjack]

"Spiegel" is saying that the CDU and FDP will get 35 seats, while SPD, Greens and SSW will get 34.

SSW looks like they got 3.7%. I thought there was a 5% rule, but I guess I'm wrong here. Doesn't that count at elections at this level?

longjack

[jamesissmall218]

Looks like the CDU-FDP won in Schleswig-Holstein, which is very good news. Now if they can only pull of a win in NRW, I think they will be unstoppabale, and then you can get rid of Schroeder and bring in a real leader, Angela Merkel. Congratulations!

[jamesissmall218]

Because the SSW represents an ethnic minority (the Danes in Schleswig-Holstein), the 5% rule doesn't apply to them.

[AdrianR]

Yes, there is a 5% rule at this level but SSW is exempt from 5% rule as an ethnic minority party.

[longjack]

OK, thanks.

That's what my wife thought it probably was.

longjack

[AdrianR]

Would that mean an early election? I am not so familiar with the German system.

[jamesissmall218]

The leader of the Christian Democratic Union is Angela Merkel, and she is presumed to be the future Chancellor should the CDU/CSU/FDP win the next federal election. She's an east German, and while she may not be as conservative as some Freepers would like, she maintains a pro-US stance, which takes a lot of courage for a political leader in Germany these days. She would be a welcome change for Germany, and her election would probably do a lot to improve US-German relations.

[longjack]

Would that mean an early election?

If the CDU takes NRW, they would take enough seats to win any votes of their own legislation and also override any Schroeder veto. Schroeder becomes, in effect, powerless, and would most likely call for new elections since he can only go up from there.

That's my take, anyway, but Michael will explain it thoroughly when he reads your post.

longjack

[OldFriend]

Does she have the courage to cut taxes on corporations and begin to limit entitlements?

[Kulturkaempfer]

As of 21:32 CET there's still a narrow lead for the conservative CDU and the classical liberal FDP.


Even a popular premier couldn't help the socialists.

On 22 May there will be the Mother of all battles in the next state election in North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's most populous state. Will the left wing loose this election, too, Schroeder could soon be history. The current socialist premier of this state is a very pale figure. There's no possibility for the Socialists to play the personal card (unlike today).

A result of conservative victory in North Rhine Westphalia would be a 2/3 super-majority in the upper chamber of the German Parliament which allows to veto every single law including the important budget.

Actor Schroeder and the violent thug Fischer would be reduced to lame ducks! Let's pray!

[TypeZoNegative]

I pray to god every day that we don't ever have a parlimentry system in the USA just because of elections like these.

[longjack]

I don't particularly think Merkel is a very strong candidate.

The CDU/CSU were riding at pretty close to 50% one year ago, while the SPD was flirting with 25%. Merkel and Stoiber managed to squander that lead.

Also, the CDU Transatlantikers, Schaeuble and Koch have been marginalized by their own party in the last year. Merkel has toned down her America support quite a bit since was blasted after her America trip. A good example is the recent Mainz fasching float that shows her on a ladder climbing into Bush's backside

Merkel doesn't have the Gravitas to stand toe to toe against Schroeder and the German media on the Anti-American issue. That would probably be political suicide in Germany, anyway, so I can't say as I blame her. Nor does there seem to be anyone else over there besides Schaeuble and Koch who have the b*lls to speak up for America.

In general, regardless of that, I just don't think she is pulling in the support of the German populace for some reason.

That just my 2 cents, BTW.

longjack

[longjack]

How close is the battle now between Stober and Merkel?

I think you said you're a Bayer, correct? You should have some good inside info on Stoiber.

It's seems like Merkel will be the one to succeed Schroeder, since there doesn't seem to be anyone else, but she doesn't seem like a strong candidate to me.

BTW, Why did Bayern beat up on bankrupt Dortmund so badly :>)

longjack

[longjack]

I pray to god every day that we don't ever have a parlimentry system in the USA just because of elections like these.

You got that right.

I was thinking the same thing. A party representing 3.7% of the voters gets to determine who runs the place, then gets posts in the new government as a payoff.

longjack

[jamesissmall218]

I agree that she may not be the strongest leader. I mean, in a country where unemployment is pushing 12% and the economy has been essentially at zero growth for some time, you would expect the opposition to have a strong lead. A big part of the reason for this is that she's an east German and is pro-US. She may not be as vocal about it as she once was, but, as you said, given the attitude towards America in Germany right now, can you blame her? At least she isn't generating hatred of America in the populace for electoral gain, as Herr Schroeder did in 2002.

Another big part in the decline in support for the CDU/CSU was internal squabbling over plans for health care, but I think that has mostly been put to rest now. I think the Schleswig-Holstein election has shown that the CDU/CSU is back on track. Coupled with the scandal that has recently broken out over the issuing of visas by the Foreign Min. Joschka Fischer, I think the CDU/CSU's fortunes will begin to rise. As long as more infighting doesn't erupt, I can't see how they would lose the next election, given the terrible state of the economy.