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GOP's 10 most at-risk
The Hill ^ | 17 feb 05 | Hans Nichols

Posted on 02/17/2005 2:13:15 PM PST by white trash redneck

House Republican leaders last night notified their 10 most vulnerable lawmakers that they will be the lucky beneficiaries of this year's first ROMP (Retain Our Majority Program) fundraiser.

The list provides an early preview of who GOP leaders think need the most help from their fellow lawmakers. It also lets potential Democratic challengers know that any run will be expensive.

The 10 members are Reps. Bob Beauprez (Colo.), Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Jim Gerlach (Pa.), Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.), Anne Northup (Ky.), Jon Porter (Nev.), Dave Reichert (Wash.), Rick Renzi (Ariz.), Rob Simmons (Conn.) and Mike Sodrel (Ind.). Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), who narrowly won his 2004 race, is not on the list.

ROMP was designed by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) in 1999 to funnel money from legislators hailing from safe seats to those who represent more marginal districts. Typically, a ROMP beneficiary receives upwards of $100,000 from each event and rarely spends less than $2 million defending his or her seat.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has not yet determined which Democrats will be included in the "Frontline" program, the Democrats' carbon copy of ROMP.

"We're still talking to members with Congressman [Mike] Thompson [D-Calif.]," said Greg Speed, spokesman for the DCCC. Earlier this year, DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) tapped Thompson to quarterback the Democrats' Frontline effort.

But Republicans clearly want to boost their vulnerable members' first-quarter campaign-finance reporting numbers before those figures are due March 31. To that end, DeLay will host the cycle's inaugural ROMP fundraiser March 17, St. Patrick's Day. There could be as many as four ROMPs this year, with those later in the cycle focusing more on promising challengers.

This year's first batch has seven repeats from last cycle and includes three newcomers: Fitzpatrick, Reichert and Sodrel. Sodrel defeated Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.), the only Frontline Democrat outside of Texas who lost in November.

"If incumbents are seen as safe, it will free up more offensive opportunities later in the election year," said Jim Ellis, director of DeLay's ARMPAC.

Lawmakers selected for the first ROMP round were elated.

"The congressman is extremely happy to be included in the first ROMP event and is greatly appreciative of the assistance he is receiving from his colleagues towards his reelection," said Mike Conallen, Fitzpatrick's chief of staff.

"Being included in that event will help us achieve that goal," he added.

As a result of the campaign-finance legislation passed three years ago, the first quarter of a nonelection year has become increasingly important in the fundraising game. Even though many freshmen are still setting up their offices and reeling from the last campaign, they need to post strong numbers to ward off any potential challengers. The last cycle was the first in which the first FEC reporting deadline was in late March, not late June.

"The March 31 deadline comes up in a hurry," said Josh Mathis, a lobbyist with Bockorny Petrizzo, who managed Reichert's campaign.

Democrats said that their Frontline list would be forthcoming and that their effort last year - their first official foray into member-to-member giving - was a success.

"We reelected everyone, all but one of our incumbents outside of Texas, last year," said Speed.

"Our top goal remains to reelect every single one of incumbents in 2006," he added.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; US: Arizona; US: Colorado; US: Connecticut; US: District of Columbia; US: Indiana; US: Kentucky; US: Nevada; US: Pennsylvania; US: Washington
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006house; annenorthup; beauprez; congress; electionushouse; fundraising; gerlach; jonporter; marilynmusgrave; mikefitzpatrick; reichert; renzi; robsimmons; romp; sodrel
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Does anybody know which of these congresscritters are good conservative solid citizens, and which are RINO's?

Since DeLay isn't supporting Shays, I suspect they are all pretty good, though I'd like some feedback.

1 posted on 02/17/2005 2:13:18 PM PST by white trash redneck
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To: white trash redneck
The two from Colorado are true conservatives.The rest are iffy at best.If you are going to send money to anyone send it to Musgrave.
2 posted on 02/17/2005 2:16:16 PM PST by Gipper08
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To: white trash redneck

Simmons is the RINO of the bunch, the rest are pretty much OK Conservatives.


3 posted on 02/17/2005 2:16:32 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (*Gregoire is French for Stealing an Election*)
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To: white trash redneck

Reichert is solid....but in a traditionally swing district.


4 posted on 02/17/2005 2:16:56 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: white trash redneck

Is there a similar list for dimmocrats?


5 posted on 02/17/2005 2:20:02 PM PST by lawnguy (We both know I'm training to be a cage fighter.)
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To: white trash redneck
The last three election cycles they have been saying that Anne Northup is going to lose, but she wins by big margins everytime. I personally don't see her losing, she has done alot for her district.

Just my personal opinion.

6 posted on 02/17/2005 2:20:04 PM PST by Recon by Fire
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To: white trash redneck
Since DeLay isn't supporting Shays *grin* ..Does this mean, there's a big "BULL's EYE" on RINO Shays' back?
7 posted on 02/17/2005 2:21:04 PM PST by skinkinthegrass (Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you :^)
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To: white trash redneck

Remember to keep location in mind...Republicans form the NE and sometimes the midwest are generally less conservative overall than those from the south or far west. That's just the way it is. Rob Simmons's lifetime ACU rating is 55; moderate at best. But I'd vote for him over a down-the-line liberal who would rate a zero.


8 posted on 02/17/2005 2:21:11 PM PST by TheBigB ("Official Keeper of the FR Eye Candy" ~Title bestowed by SirLurkedalot)
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To: white trash redneck
I was surprised to see Anne Northup (Ky) in this group. Thought she was much more solid and might be a candidate for senate should anything (more) happen to Bunning.
9 posted on 02/17/2005 2:22:14 PM PST by Mase
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To: white trash redneck

Shays is the ultimate RINO, the kind that stays Republican forever, but can never be counted on for anything important.

His seat is as safe as can be - live boy or dead girl safe - because of his rhetorical sabotage of Clinton's impeachment. Democrats simply don't want him to talk, and therefore will not pose any serious challenge to him.


10 posted on 02/17/2005 2:22:44 PM PST by thoughtomator (If Islam is a religion, so is Liberal!)
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To: Gipper08
If you are going to send money to anyone send it to Musgrave.

Why "Thank You", Rep. Musgrave. *grin*

11 posted on 02/17/2005 2:24:09 PM PST by skinkinthegrass (Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you :^)
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To: white trash redneck

Let's come up with a DUMP (Democrats Unlikely to Maintain Position) program for the 10 most vunerable RATS.


12 posted on 02/17/2005 2:24:29 PM PST by mombonn ( ¡Viva Bush/Cheney!)
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To: white trash redneck

The most endangered is Lincoln Chafee, RINO. He's not even no the list. I guess they only looked at the House.


13 posted on 02/17/2005 2:25:40 PM PST by Brilliant
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To: white trash redneck

What is the success rate of the program? How many people in the program lost in the past?


14 posted on 02/17/2005 2:27:34 PM PST by paudio (Four More Years..... Let's Use Them Wisely...)
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To: thoughtomator

like posted earlier....some states my have a moderate Repub on the ballot, but I'd rather vote for an 80% Repub than an 80% Dem.........


15 posted on 02/17/2005 2:28:02 PM PST by NorCalRepub
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To: anniegetyourgun

I don't know if I'd call Reichert's district a swing district. I live in the 8th here in Wash. and the area trending to the left and getting populated by Rats is in and around Bellevue which is major cause for concern. Jennifer Dunn enjoyed quite a few reelections too.


16 posted on 02/17/2005 2:30:34 PM PST by Horatio Gates (Some cops are jerks. On the bright side, other cops think they're jerks too.)
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To: Mase
Nothrup's district tilts democrat because of Louisville.

She's just been able to win it multiple times.

17 posted on 02/17/2005 2:34:34 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("PLAYOFFS? Don't talk about playoffs. You kidding me. Playoffs?" - Jim Mora Sr.)
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To: shotokan

It's always been considered a swing district by the party. Can go either way, much depends on the candidate. Dave prolly won for his name recog and Jen's endorsement. Glad he's on the list of endangered species - the seat must be protected.


18 posted on 02/17/2005 2:34:43 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: Recon by Fire; Mase

Concur....I do thing that Bunning will retire, and Anne would be the perfect choice..she did much better than expected in 2004, but she had W at the top of the ticket..won't be the same in '06, and the demographics of her district make it a 50/50 race on average...This is a pre-emptive strike to discourage a deep-pocket dem from taking on the race....good move..


19 posted on 02/17/2005 2:36:36 PM PST by ken5050 (The Dem party is as dead as the NHL..)
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To: Gipper08
If I am not mistaken, Beauprez (sp) has already been re-elected once. As for Shays, my guess is that he is safe, as is Ann N. from Kentucky.

Me thinks this is a lot of wishful thinking by the writer.

20 posted on 02/17/2005 2:40:06 PM PST by OldFriend (America's glory is not dominion, but liberty.)
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