Posted on 02/17/2005 7:53:47 AM PST by JohnnyZ
Test Time for Governors The next two years are a mega-cycle for governors, with 38 states hosting a race. In 2002, 23 Republicans and Democrats won election to their first term, putting the spotlight on these incumbents as they seek reelection after four years of governing. Four other governors (who have succeeded to the office or been elected since 2002) will face voters in 2006 as well.
The Government Performance Project (GPP) and Governing magazine recently released their report card, giving a overall letter grade to each state by taking into account its Money (the state's financial situation), People (state employee management), Infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.), and Information (how well the state uses technology to communicate to the state's residents).The grading was obviously not on a curve, since there weren't many high marks.
While a low grade does not necessarily mean a loss next November for the sitting governor's party - and, conversely, a party in power can't rest on its laurels just because the state received a high grade - the ratings do constitute political ammunition for candidates.
Here are the grades/states:
GPP Grade: C- Both Gov. Bob Riley (R)'s Alabama and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)'s California received "C-" grades, the lowest of any state holding a gubernatorial election in the next two years. But Riley is in much worse shape. He is expected to face a primary challenge because he advocated for a tax increase of over a billion dollars that was soundly defeated by Alabama voters. Former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) is the most prominent name mentioned. And if he survives that, Riley could also face a competitive general election from Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley (D) or former Gov. Don Siegelman (D), the man Riley beat in 2002.
Schwarzenegger is in better shape, even though California's financial situation was given a "D." He'll certainly face any number of statewide elected Democrats in the general election, but he appears to be riding a wave of popularity following his election during the Gray Davis recall. It's unclear that voters are ready to blame the state's problems on Arnold after only a year in office.
GPP Grade: C Three states get the mediocre "C" grade: Hawaii, Wyoming, and New Hampshire. Gov. Linda Lingle (R- Hawaii) and Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D-Wyoming) are in very similar situations. Lingle, a Republican, was elected in a deep "Blue" state and Freudenthal, a Democrat, was elected in a deep "Red" state. But up to this point, there are no challengers even mentioned to run against either one of them.
Last fall in New Hampshire, Bill Lynch (D) knocked off incumbent Gov. Craig Benson (R) for a two-year term so he'll be up again in 2006. No incumbent in the Granite State had lost reelection to a second term in twenty five years, until Benson last November. In the end, Lynch may get a credible challenger, but no Republican heavyweights are looming.
GPP Grade: C+ Eleven states make up this class, but Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) of Alaska is the cream of the crop in terms of vulnerability. He almost dragged down his daughter, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), in last year's Senate race and now must fight for his own reelection. Democrats are still trying to come up with a candidate, but anyone with a pulse has a chance against the governor.
Both Arkansas and Colorado will host open seat contests because Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and Gov. Bill Owens (R) are term-limited. Republicans and Democrats will have competitive and crowded primaries in both states and the general elections should be tightly contested.
Republican governors Mitt Romney (Massachusetts), Don Carcieri (Rhode Island), and Jodi Rell (Connecticut) are all seeking reelection in states that are reliably Democratic in most contests. Recent polls show Romney locked in a tight battle with state Attorney General Thomas Reilly (D). Democrats are waiting to see how vulnerable Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) may be before setting their sights on Carcieri. Rell's approval numbers are astronomical after succeeding Gov. John Rowland (R) who was indicted on corruption charges and resigned before he could be impeached. But she could still face a very competitive race.
Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) of Oregon may face a competitive race, even though the state Republican Party is not the strongest. Democrats have held the governorship since 1986, making it prime territory for a change message. New polling shows Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry (D) is very well-liked even though he is in a very "Red" state. He skated into office in 2002 without anyone laying a glove on him, and he just may get by the same way in 2006.
The remaining three are in much better shape. Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) is going through a rough patch in the local media between himself and his father-in-law, Chicago Alderman Dick Mell (D), but there is no sign Republicans will be able to get their act together to mount much of a challenge. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-New Mexico) and Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-Tennessee) are seeking reelection in order to position themselves for a potential White House run in 2008.
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Ehrlich is on his heels, Romney is looking really sketchy, Murkowski will have a tough time of it if he doesn't get a primary, New York is gone (thanks so much George & Rudy), frickin Alabama, and we don't have that many opportunities for our own pickups.
bump for later
"Personally I think we're screwed in the 2006 governors elections."
Because he finally got his blankety-blank-blank tax increase through. This surplus is not due any kind of leadership in spending reductions on Warner's part.
The problem for Democrats is that Gov. Mark Warner (D) is prohibited from seeking a second consecutive term in 2005 and an open seat is generally much more difficult to defend.
This is not a problem from my point of view.
Both parties have strong candidates in Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) and state Attorney General Jerry Kilgore (R) and the race will be a good primer to 2006.
Kaine is Kerry-lite. But now there are two Republicans putting up a primary challenge.
The rankings were by Governing magazine, IIRC, which has left-wing budgetary views, e.g. the best system of taxation is one that taxes as many things as possible (so they trash New Hampshire & Tennessee & other no-income tax states regularly).
A long time ago I heard someone say that if a government has a surplus the people are being overcharged for services. I don’t like a deficit, but large surpluses should be returned to the people, not spent on vote or political contribution generating projects.
But Lisa was helped by the fact that she was running in a presidential year in a highly republican state in which the gop incumbent president was very popular.
I wouldn't go into full-blown panic mode, yet. We're barely past the last election cycle, and it's hard to handicap a lot of those races at this point. I still think we have some good pick-up opportunities here and there. I don't think Ehrlich is sunk, Romney may be close (though even if we lose it, the state will deserve to choke on its leftism run amok), there are no high-profile 'Rats to challenge Murkowski (unless Knowles wants to make a comeback), we'll hold AL (assuming no primary bloodbath). I'll concede NY is gone barring a Rudy run, but Sue Spitzer as Governor might finally start to reverse our fortunes in the state, which have eroded dramatically under RINO Pataki.
You're preaching to the choir on that one.
California -- Arnold again, whoopee. Hopefully McClintock and some other statewide offices though.
Hawaii -- we'll see if Lingle can hold on
Wyoming -- another Freudenthal term, then he heads to the Senate?
New Hampshire -- Benson and Kerry's minions screwed us in 2004, now I don't know if we can get it back
Alaska -- The Democrats may not have a candidate, and Murkowski's unpopularity may subside, but if anyone has proven they can screw the pooch it's Frank.
Arkansas -- We can probably hold this with social moderate Win
Colorado -- Coffman/McInnis vs. Udall? We should hold this too.
Massachusetts -- I can't imagine what Romney is thinking running around like he's gonna run for president. How many times can the Rats screw this one up?
Rhode Island -- looking fine
Jodi Rell -- nice little liberal should be popular with voters
Okay, so far there's only one chance (Colorado) for a strong conservative governor (in addition to Carcieri). Let's continue ...
Oregon -- maybe, but who's gonna run? Mannix?
Oklahoma -- calling JC Watts. Hell, why not Nickles?
Illinois -- Blago is an idiot, but who we got? Lahood? Good grief!
New Mexico -- ain't gonna win this
Tennessee -- not this either, apparently
New York -- gonzo
New Jersey -- we have a couple months to try to beat Corzine. Fat chance.
Florida -- Crist good, Gallagher okay, Jennings bad
Idaho -- looks like Butch Otter
Nevada -- moderate GOPer will likely win -- Sandoval? at least he's Hispanic
Wisconsin -- Mark Green or Scott Walker could well take Doyle out, one of the few races I'm happy about.
SoDak -- Rounds is safe
Maine -- sleeper race, if we had a candidate
Maryland -- Ehrlich is in serious danger
Ohio -- Blackwell could be our star
Georgia -- Perdue has settled in okay but Taylor and Cox are popular
I guess when you hold a lot of states you play a lot of defense.
Iowa -- Governor Nussle!!!
Nebraska -- Heineman or whoever
Texas -- disgraceful that we can't get a potential prez in office here -- but maybe we get Senator Bonilla
South Carolina -- Sanford's in great shape
Vermont -- Douglas is comfy
Pennsylvania -- if someone wants to beat Fast Eddie they need to get it in gear
Arizona -- Napolitano may be going down :)
Kansas -- odds of the KS GOP getting their act together?
Michigan -- longshot
Minnesota -- looking good for Pawlenty, unless he gets Hatch
Virginia -- Kilgore should be a winner
I guess the lack of good governors is my real gripe. Too many stiffs and moderates supposedly "leading" the state parties. We can take out Doyle, Napolitano, and take over Iowa, Virginia -- but we're letting a lot of Democrat 'stars' waltz to reelection.
Too bad the politicians don't believe it.
I've got nothing against primary challengers, but it's these RINOs who threaten to run third-party who tick me off!!
FReegards...MUD
Moore def. Riley, Moore def. Baxley... GOP hold. What a shame about Riley. Some talk that Don Singleterm wants a Secondterm. Baxley will stomp him in the primary.
"Alaska -- The Democrats may not have a candidate, and Murkowski's unpopularity may subside, but if anyone has proven they can screw the pooch it's Frank."
I think he will win, but by a decidedly unspectacular margin. Even better if he steps down and allows a Loren Leman-Sarah Palin ticket.
"Arizona -- Napolitano may be going down :)"
May may be the key word. Will J.D. Hayworth be too "Rush Limbaugh" for Arizona voters ? I still think she may hold it narrowly.
"Arkansas -- We can probably hold this with social moderate Win"
Win Paul just has too much money to lose either the primary or the general. He's avenging dad, but I still wish he or Huckabee had taken on Barbie Lambert-Lincoln (sic).
"California -- Arnold again, whoopee. Hopefully McClintock and some other statewide offices though."
I hope McClintock gets the Lt Gov nod, then Ah-nold can resign and go make "Terminator 4" and a final "Conan" movie.
"Colorado -- Coffman/McInnis vs. Udall? We should hold this too."
I'm beginning to get really pissed at McInnis for not running for the Senate, so just for that, I'm rooting for Mike Coffman. But with the state GOP in such turmoil, Udall might have a better shot than we think (hell, if they could elect that kook Dick Lamm to THREE terms... !).
"(Connecticut) Jodi Rell -- nice little liberal should be popular with voters"
*Sigh* Dick Blumenthal must be gnashing his teeth. He's probably praying Lieberman succeeds Rumsfeld as DefSec.
"Florida -- Crist good, Gallagher okay, Jennings bad"
I've heard some grumbling about Crist. I think Gallagher may be the safest bet. But who will the 'Rats run ?
"Georgia -- Perdue has settled in okay but Taylor and Cox are popular"
There's some people around here on FR who really HATE Sonny Perdue. But it's hard to ignore the sweeping GOP victories on his watch. He's earned a 2nd term. If the 'Rats nominate head twit Mark Taylor, it may be a rout. Taylor hasn't stopped crying since November '02.
"Hawaii -- we'll see if Lingle can hold on"
She's badly got to work on party-building. The GOP was in better shape under her 'Rat predecessor.
"Idaho -- looks like Butch Otter"
Butch has been waiting almost 30 years for the job. The current Lt Gov is also mentioned as a candidate, but he is an enemy of Dirk Kempthorne's.
"Illinois -- Blago is an idiot, but who we got? Lahood? Good grief!"
As long as we get LaThug the hell out of the House, it's a positive. Pete Fitzgerald might even jump in, otherwise I'd probably prefer Joe Birkett. I still think Blag will get a 2nd term, though. Given the mess the state GOP is in, we don't deserve to be put in charge of bubkas.
"Iowa -- Governor Nussle!!!"
Fingers crossed. Hope we can hold his House seat... and lastly, let's hope he doesn't go all Bob Riley on us.
"Kansas -- odds of the KS GOP getting their act together?"
Jerry Moran is the most unifying figure, but KS residents may still opt to keep Gilligan-Sebelius for a 2nd term.
"Maine -- sleeper race, if we had a candidate"
The 'Rats have ME by the balls. We can go back to a very unblissful sleep on this one.
"Maryland -- Ehrlich is in serious danger"
O'Malley is serious whackjob. Now, if only we can get him to open up his feelings about Black people a la Howard Dean...
"Massachusetts -- I can't imagine what Romney is thinking running around like he's gonna run for president. How many times can the Rats screw this one up?"
I can't imagine what sane Republican would want to be a Governor of MA with no Republican party. He may win again, but does it really matter ?
"Michigan -- longshot"
Maybe not as long as we think. Let's hope Valde Garcia can send Jenny Grandstand back to Canuckistan.
"Minnesota -- looking good for Pawlenty, unless he gets Hatch"
If Pawlenty gets back some of our lost legislative seats, I think he should be considered a prime contender for the VP slot (with Condi as #1, of course... ;-))
"Nebraska -- Heineman or whoever"
Republicans can hold this seat with their eyes closed. But who the hell is going to run against Ben Nelson if he won't switch ? Coach Osborne ?
"Nevada -- moderate GOPer will likely win -- Sandoval? at least he's Hispanic"
Jim Gibbons wants this office even more badly than I want Katie Holmes spread eagle butt-nekkid across my sleeper sofa. He should be amptly rewarded for giving the U.S. 6 more years of Harry Reid. Lorraine Hunt, the Lt Gov, should get the nod. If Oscar Goodman decides to fight for it, this could get ugly in the general.
"New Hampshire -- Benson and Kerry's minions screwed us in 2004, now I don't know if we can get it back"
Bruce Keough, Bruce Keough, Bruce Keough, and did I mention Bruce Keough ? I think Lynch was a fluke win because Benson never enjoyed much popularity.
"New Jersey -- we have a couple months to try to beat Corzine. Fat chance."
I predict another scandal in the future... Corzine is going to be caught in bed having sex with his own money.
"New Mexico -- ain't gonna win this"
The big race will be if Heather Wilson can take Bingaman's Senate seat (and then get John Sanchez to take her House seat).
"New York -- gonzo"
Hey, just look at the bright side... Sue Spitzer might force Senate Republicans to grow a pair. After 12 years, it would be a refreshing change.
"Ohio -- Blackwell could be our star"
Unfortunately, some RINOs would like to hang him from a tree. Ken will be the best thing to happen to Ohio since Robert Taft, Sr. Let's get down on our knees and pray that Jerry Springer gets the 'Rat nod (since Blackwell served with him and had to clean up Jerry's mess on the Cincy City Council, he should handle him quite well).
"Oklahoma -- calling JC Watts. Hell, why not Nickles?"
Has JC expressed any interest ? I'd just as soon let Lt Gov. Mary Fallin take a swing at Brad Henry (she'd probably be Governor now if she'd been nominated in '02).
"Oregon -- maybe, but who's gonna run? Mannix?"
Despite some grumblings, I don't think he's game for a rematch, besides, he's too busy running the state party. OR is still fairly GOP, but they've been in a slump for way too long. Save for perhaps one of the primary also-rans in '02 (mostly RINOs), I don't know who else might take a swing.
"Pennsylvania -- if someone wants to beat Fast Eddie they need to get it in gear"
I'm backing Lynn Swann at this point. Having African-American Conservative Republicans as Governors of OH & PA will send the 'Rats into epileptic fits.
"Rhode Island -- looking fine"
Now if only we could dump that twit Chafee into Narragansett Bay...
"South Carolina -- Sanford's in great shape"
Invincible. Now if only we could dump Andre Bauer from the #2 slot, he seems to be bad news.
"SoDak -- Rounds is safe"
And he damn well better run against Johnson in '08.
"Tennessee -- not this either, apparently"
As you know, I live here, in the capital city, and I haven't a friggin' clue as to who will run against Pharoah Phil. All of the political oxygen in the state is going to get sucked out by a Bryant-Ford Senate race.
"Texas -- disgraceful that we can't get a potential prez in office here -- but maybe we get Senator Bonilla"
TX is like a whole other country. Just as long as Ma Keeton Rylander Strayhorn Jackson-Lee Richards doesn't get the nomination, we'll be fine.
"Vermont -- Douglas is comfy"
And a gutless wonder. He's too buddy-buddy with Mao-Tse Jeffords to challenge him. Maybe we can look to Brian Dubie to take out the trash.
"Virginia -- Kilgore should be a winner"
Of course, the RINOs cluster-f*cked our guy in '01, and may try it again. Expect a whispering campaign from the supposedly gay-friendly 'Rats that because Jerry talks "funny" he enjoys a festive yule log in his holiday buns.
"Wisconsin -- Mark Green or Scott Walker could well take Doyle out, one of the few races I'm happy about."
You may be even more surprised when Tommy Thompson decides he wants his old job back. But will Green and Walker step out of the way ?
"Wyoming -- another Freudenthal term, then he heads to the Senate?"
Another term perhaps, because the Republicans say he is governing like one of them, but just like with Alaska, you'd have to have merde for brains to send a (D) to Washington. He'll be another Mike Sullivan, he ain't goin' nowhere after Cheyenne.
"If Pawlenty gets back some of our lost legislative seats, I think he should be considered a prime contender for the VP slot (with Condi as #1, of course... ;-)) "
Actually, I meant she's my top pick for the Presidential nomination (at this point). It's my thinking that Dubya is grooming her to succeed him in the job. I'm hoping she will certainly "modify" her positions on some of these issues, but if she does not, we can always look elsewhere. Ah, I'm probably getting swept up in Condimania right now... ;-)
"I assume you are predicting that Bingaman will retire. If Bingaman does retire, a Wilson-Udall Senate race would be a real barnburner, and a Sanchez-Romero House race would also be close. But if Bingaman runs for another term, as I assume that he will, I think that everyone else will stay put."
I've just heard the whisperings that he may head on out. It's got to be frustrating to those 'Rats with years of seniority sitting in the minority for yet another term with no end in sight. I think we may see a major exodus of members in the next 4 years.
"And who will take on Fat Bill in the gubernatorial race?"
Good question, I really don't know. Perhaps a state legislator, maybe fmr. Lt. Gov. Walter Bradley (who came in 2nd to Sanchez) ?
"It's got to be frustrating to those 'Rats with years of seniority sitting in the minority for yet another term with no end in sight. I think we may see a major exodus of members in the next 4 years."
Bingaman just announced he's running again. The NRSC talked up Wilson to run ..... but no word from Wilson.
That would be Don "Snake" Siegelman (D).
Blago is portrayed as a flake. Plus, the news is now highlighting the corruption of Chicago City workers. Guess there are no Republcians to kick around anymore. I am more concerned about the IL-08. We need to get that seat back. To elect a feminazi in a GOP-leaning district is pathetic. Frankly, I prefer if Birkett waits until Henry Hyde retires. He would make a great keeper of the IL-06.
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