THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES
A Techno-thriller Series about America and World War III
Posted on 02/16/2005 4:43:40 PM PST by blue kangaroo
It takes two to tango By George Zhibin Gu
In this era of globalization, the elephant and the dragon are finally running fast, together. There is a sense of urgency for the two ancient peoples to catch up with the developed world. True, there is a high degree of rivalry between them, but all that this competition will produce in the end is a creative and productive partnership.
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In this era of globalization, the elephant and the dragon are finally running fast, together. There is a sense of urgency for the two ancient peoples to catch up with the developed world. True, there is a high degree of rivalry between them, but all that this competition will produce in the end is a creative and productive partnership.
Mutual benefits are plenty. India has built up a world-class information technology ( IT) army while China has created a fast-expanding manufacturing force. Their strengths are complementary in numerous ways, all they have to do is team up in a more productive fashion. So far, India's IT army has successfully courted the big boys' club in the developed world. But there is a limitation to how far it can go. Indian software companies are service-oriented. They have not had a large space to develop their propriety products. China can provide them that space.
China Inc will benefit from this partnership as well. It has developed an extensive manufacturing capability and can produce nearly anything under the sun. But in terms of intellectual development, especially software and design, it has lagged behind. This is where the Indian software giants come in. Leveraging on this combination of knowledge and production, India and China together will be able to supply the world better and cheaper products of all sorts.
One would estimate that trade between China and India should touch $200 billion in a decade or so. But we are far from there. In 2004, bilateral trade reached $13.6 billion. Even so, it was a record. China is now India's second-biggest trading partner. In many ways, businessmen in the two countries are way ahead of the governments, having smelt the potential for partnership much earlier and tapping into each other's resources.
Chinese companies generally undertake two kinds of projects in India. The first is manufacturing plants. Both Konka and TCL, two leading Chinese consumer product companies, have factories in India that produce consumer electronics and home-appliances. Haier, the biggest Chinese consumer product maker, is adding a handset production unit in India. A booming Indian economy has a great market potential, besides being a great factory. All Chinese consumer product companies wish to tap into India's $4 billion home appliances market. When the Indian economy grows further, it will become an explosive consumption market. For now, India has 46 million handsets, which will rise to 340 million in a few years, like China.
The second is research and development (R&D) centers. A high-profile example would be Huawei, the leading Chinese telecom network player. It has been operating a sizable R&D center in Bangalore for several years now. It has some 700 employees, mostly Indians and an investment of $80 million. Satisfied with the general environment and the talent base, it is putting in another US$100 million to expand its programs there.
Several Indian companies have also been active in China. All top Indian software firms are in China today. Among them, NIIT, a leading consulting and educational concern, has been operating in China for several years. It has set up numerous training schools in major Chinese cities, each with thousands of students. The other leading IT names, such as Infosys, Wipro, TCS and Satyam, all have a significant Chinese presence. They can definitely play a big role in helping China to move to the next level. In addition, their international experience is a huge plus. Besides, there are plenty of Indian manufacturing companies operating in China. The country provides them both a factory and a market. Consumption in China is way ahead of India as of now. Again, China has plenty of component suppliers who offer a vast choice for Indian manufacturers.
For many centuries, the two nations have lived in isolation. So in many ways, they are being reborn in this era of globalization. Both are now active players in global development. A prosperous India and China is great news for the world. The more prosperous they are, the easier will it be for the developed world to tap into these two markets. The biggest gainers will be the multinationals, who can set up their shops in these low-cost and big-market nations.
An explosive entrepreneurial spirit leads the growths of Indian and Chinese economies. Both are creating millions of entrepreneurs. These entrepreneurial armies are changing the very basics of their traditional societies. In this new environment, their large burdensome populations are being turned into a productive force. Interestingly, they have become the new champions of globalization.
George Zhibin Gu is a business consultant based in China and is the author of a forthcoming book, China's Global Reach: Markets, Multinationals, and Globalization (Haworth Press, Fall 2005). He can be reached at gzb678@yahoo.com.cn
Can you give a short account on the big stories of your invention?
The US objects and develops sanctions, particularly against China. Things escalate from there. In the mean time, China covertly backs a very fundamental and radical clergyman and former military officer in Iran...who then unites all of the fundamental islamic nations.
Ultimately, both powers (the Islamic and the Asian) go to war with the United States and her allies...and Russia, who tries to remain nuetral, is ultimately stabbed in the back when Siberia declares independence and allies itself with China and India.
Umm,Jeff while your scenario makes interesting reading,the fact of the matter is both India & China are competing(& pretty fiercely) for oil exploration & drilling rights in places like Southern Africa,Indonesia,Iran(Where China is ahead) & Siberia.Both are going all out to get a single piece of the assets of Yukos.To suggest that India & China would ever agree to share oil wealth,when both can't get enough is ludicrious to say the least(even if we ignore the political difficulties between them).
About Your-Asian/Islamic alliance,well what about the Chinese strong ties with Pakistan????No Indian leader would even think about signing up with the PRC until those ties end & Pakistan is history?what about their border dispute???You seem to ignoring the fact that India has suffered more casualities against Islamic terror in the last 20 years than the rest of world put together(excluding Israel) & it would tie up with the Slammics??.Would the fundamentalist regimes you describe include folks like Egpyt,Saudi Arabia & the UAE??Well Im very glad to inform you that Washington is planning another round of armssales to those wonderful ALLIES including toys like the PAC-3 missiles(those would be ideal to down American planes,wouldn't they?),More E-2C2000s & what not.
The fact that China and India and Russia are moving closer to economic strategic alliances cannot be contested...it is reported in the news regularly. Will it lead to military alliances as per my series? I pray it does not. But the possibility exists despite their history.
The Nazi-Soviet alliance was one between 2 dictators-India happens to be a democracy & how long did 1939 pact last??India,Russia & China(& others like South Africa,Brazil etc) have common economic interests esp when it comes to the conventions of the WTO,but in the rest of the spheres,India & China are serious economic competitors.Just because China & India are benefitting from outsourcing doesn't mean they are also on the same side-far from it.China is trying to corner the chunk of the services market where India is ahead ,while Indian industry is slowly rising to meet the manufacturing stranglehood of the Chinese.About the strategic "alliance"-well has it come about???The papers have been saying about it since the fall of the USSR,but it has pretty much always come up as a damp squib.You seem to ignore the role of Pakistan in all this & (a pretty emotional) border dispute.India & China have separate strategic relationship with Russia & for pretty separate relationship.A lot of folks blatantly ignore that Russia has a lot of significant chunk of the Indian arms market(to ISrael & Europe),while they are setting themselves up for an ever bigger shock as & when the EU lift's its arms ban on the PRC-even the Brits are in favour of it.
I suggest you take a closer look at & the Chinese-EU relationship & folks like Saudi Arabia & the other oil Sheikhdoms-they are pumping themselves up with the latest weaponry,a good chunk of it from the US of A.
...and, like I said, many times history is stranger than fiction.
China is a serious threat. I do not mean to demean India or Russia with the book. Only to point out that as China's influence grows, so will her capacity to deal with those around her and dmove them towards her sphere. In the end, like with Russia and Germany, the alliances in my series fall apart precisely, among other reasons, because of the things you point out.
In the mean time, China continues to grow economically and militarily and will one day face off against the US and whomever her allies are. Given her government and the areas of competition, unless there is significant change soon, that showdown is inevitable IMHO. I sincerely hope, when that time comes, that both Inida and Russia are on our side of the fence.
The good thing about fiction is that it can have absolutely no basis on facts, and have about as much chance of coming true as a bull frog turning into a price.
China and India have too many issues (Arunanchal Pradesh, Pakistan, Myanmar cocos islands, competition for oil, Aksai Chin, democracy versus totalitarianism, etc ) to combine forces, and that to against the US.
Maybe (just maybe) good fiction, but zero geopolitical value.
Same thing was thought about Nazi Germany and the Soviets in the late 1930's, and yet...
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