Posted on 01/30/2005 2:35:53 PM PST by rface
From his Hyde Park apartment, using a 2001 Dell computer with a dial-up modem, Jay Cost knew something the John Kerry campaign did not: How to win. The 26-year-old doctoral student at the University of Chicago saw weakness in the Kerry campaign early -- and strengths in President Bush's re-election effort -- that he tracked on a daily "blog," a Web-based discussion site he launched in early fall called The Horserace Blog.
Not only did his analysis win mention on several prominent news outlets including CNN and Rush Limbaugh's radio program, it became a campaign tool for insiders and political pundits around the country.
For Cost, a conservative Republican, the blog was born out of frustration with the mainstream media and its rudimentary grasp of politics and campaigning. After pundits spent days lamenting a goofy photo of Kerry in a space suit and how it would impact his campaign, Cost launched the blog with his own analysis — and old-fashioned research.
"The media spends a lot of time focusing on things that don't matter and have never mattered in presidential elections," he said.
Using political theories gleaned from schooling and from years studying presidential elections, Cost spent up to 16 hours a day figuring out who, exactly, was in the lead. While media outlets droned about "too close to call" polls, Cost used the polling data and the campaign stops of the candidates to determine who was more solid.
"You can figure out what's going on in a campaign by where the candidates are spending their time," he said.
Example: After the first debate, Kerry went to Ohio and Florida. The nation's presidential campaign reporters spun the campaign stops as evidence of Kerry's upswing. He bounded into red states to build on the momentum spurred after his strong debate performance, the national media reported.
But from Cost's perspective, Kerry stopped in the bluest and most Democratic regions in both states, reflecting the fact that he was losing his base.
"If you're solid, you go to Tampa or Orlando," Cost said. "You go to a swing area."
Cost studied everything: U.S. census data; voter registrations in obscure New Mexico counties; evangelical Christians who stayed home in 2000. He analyzed the Florida Panhandle, searched for increases in voter registration and noted population increases in rural Ohio.
He spent up to 16 hours a day holed up in his apartment office, taking breaks to clean house before his wife got home. A third-year doctoral student studying political science, Cost wasn't taking courses at the time and devoted endless hours to his craft.
If you didn't know Cost, a Pittsburgh native and valedictorian of his high school class, you might guess him to be a youth counselor or an IT guy with a decent wardrobe. He could be handing you popcorn at the movies or teaching fourth-graders about adjectives. He smiles a lot and nods while he listens.
He would be patient with the waitress who brought the wrong order.
But he didn't mince words on the blog. Forget couching phrases with "mights" or "coulds." The Horserace Blog was about bold predictions.
He gained notoriety by writing to mid-level, conservative blogs and getting mentioned here and there. Soon enough, he had a following. On election day, he spent the morning "talking people off ledges." Bush supporters were growing anxious with poor exit polls.
Cost voted around 3 p.m., grazed on cold cuts and stayed up until 6 a.m. pounding at the keyboard.
Kerry, he says, spent too much time raising money and not enough time building grass roots. He was impersonal and caught in the liberal-to-moderate trap of being ambiguous, thus the "flip-flopper" title.
Kerry took the black vote for granted, and he spent his time inefficiently.
So he lost, which Cost predicted.
Bush, meanwhile, courted the Christians who stayed home four years ago and snubbed the New York Times to grant inverviews with smaller, Christian publications. He timed his issues appropriately, declaring support for the gay marriage amendment in the early spring. And for the first time in a long time, Republicans greased a machine. They made calls to voters who hadn't shown up to the polls yet. It was grass-roots activism at its finest.
While Cost would be an asset to any campaign, he's not interested. He knows too much. He couldn't stomach the fact-twisting, the manipulation, the dumbing-down.
He plans to look for a professor post after graduating, though his real passion is the philosophy of social science. He shut down The Horserace Blog after the election, not wanting to join the ranks of bloggers who don't know what they're talking about. Cost's specialty is presidential elections — and classic rock trivia and The Matrix — but the election is over, and the blog was put to rest.
He'll revive it later. In four years. When he tires of Dawson's Creek reruns.
Kristen McQueary may be reached at kmcqueary@dailysouthtown.com or (708) 633-5972.
And the "pros" had their heads up their asses.
I don't recall where I learned of him, but he was right on the money. When the exit polls had everyone in white knuckle mode, I remained calm because he was right and I knew it. He's a real doll and I hope he resumes his blog in 2008/
It really was one of the most interesting political blogs I read regularly before the election.
How many good things have been born out of this frustration, all of which the MSM would like to shove back in the bottle.
I went to his blog daily from mid Sept on, the guy was really accurate and a wealth of information
This was a great blog to peruse during the election. Hat's off to Jay Cost.
Wow i wish i knew about this before the election...and i hope i remeber it for the next one!
This is funny. There was some of that going on right here.
Some of you who kept wondering how I could be so certain Bush would win OH: I read Cost religiously. He knew the #s inside out. I knew if our voters turned out, it didn't matter what the Dems did, based on his numbers.
Exactly. I got home after "flushing" the GOP polls and knew we won, only to hear all the idiot "exit polling" data and the panicked Freepers.
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