I'm not so sure.
Posted on 01/26/2005 12:59:33 PM PST by dilbert80
Economist: China Loses in Dollar Stability Wednesday January 26, 3:47 pm ET By Edith M. Lederer, Associated Press Writer China Has Lost Faith in Stability of U.S. Dollar, Top Chinese Economist Says at World Forum
DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) -- China has lost faith in the stability of the U.S. dollar and its first priority is to broaden the exchange rate for its currency from the dollar to a more flexible basket of currencies, a top Chinese economist said Wednesday at the World Economic Forum. At a standing-room only session focusing on the world's fastest-growing economy, Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute at the China Reform Foundation, said the issue for China isn't whether to devalue the yuan but "to limit it from the U.S. dollar."
But he stressed that the Chinese government is under no pressure to revalue its currency.
China's exchange rate policies restrict the value of the yuan to a narrow band around 8.28 yuan, pegged to $1. Critics argue that the yuan is undervalued, making China's exports cheaper overseas and giving its manufacturers an unfair advantage. Beijing has been under pressure from its trading partners, especially the United States, to relax controls on its currency.
"The U.S. dollar is no longer -- in our opinion is no longer -- (seen) as a stable currency, and is devaluating all the time, and that's putting troubles all the time," Fan said, speaking in English.
"So the real issue is how to change the regime from a U.S. dollar pegging ... to a more manageable ... reference ... say Euros, yen, dollars -- those kind of more diversified systems," he said.
"If you do this, in the beginning you have some kind of initial shock," Fan said. "You have to deal with some devaluation pressures."
The dollar hit a new low in December against the euro and has been falling against other major currencies on concerns about the ever-growing U.S. trade and budget deficits.
The U.S. currency came under some pressure Wednesday, drifting lower versus most currencies including the Japanese yen and the euro, as dealers mulled the Chinese official's statements.
Fan said last year China lost a good opportunity to do revalue its currency, in July and October.
"High pressure, we don't do it. When the pressure's gone, we forgot," Fan said, to laughter from the audience. "But this time, I think Chinese authorities will not forget it. Now people understand the U.S. dollar will not stop devaluating."
Asked how speculation about revaluation could be curbed, he noted that China imposed a 3 percent tariff on Chinese exports.
Some Chinese experts say that perhaps inflation can be reduced this year, "but I'm not that optimistic," Fan said, noting that fuel prices keep rising.
"So maybe China (will) have 4-5 percent inflation in 2005," he said.
Fan, whose nonprofit institute specializes in analyzing the Chinese economy, stressed that the country's development is a long-term process that will take decades, maybe a century.
Since China's economic modernization began over a decade ago, 120 million rural laborers have moved into cities, but another 200 million or 300 million people need to move into the cities from the countryside to spur development, he said.
"The income disparity is huge, and income disparity will stay with us for a long time, as long as those 200 to 300 million rural laborers stay in the countryside," Fan said.
Nonetheless, William Parrett, chief executive of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, told the panel that Chinese companies are making significant progress in becoming global giants, led by state-owned companies.
"It's probably at least 10 years before the objective of the government of 50 of the largest 500 companies in the world being Chinese" is achieved, he said.
It does if you're a contrarian.
You've predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions.
WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Republicans in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday introduced legislation to create a new federal regulator with the authority to close mortgage funders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.....
This is not bad news for the U.S. at all. What the Chinese government is saying is that their policy of linking the yuan to the dollar is having some serious consequences. First and foremost, their currency has declined against other currencies for no reason whatsoever in economic terms -- except that the U.S. dollar has been falling.
Yes, and the only thing worse than a fiat currency is one that is linked to a fiat currency like the Chinese yuan is.
I'm not so sure.
A useless parition of data.
Bush plays damned good poker.
We're working on it.....be patient.
It is all just nonsense. If they move to a basket there will be pressure taken off os the dollar anyway. Ig the Euros and the Japanese are whining now just wait until the Chenese peg to the Euros and the Yen. Too funny. As ussual, the rest of the world want us to do all the work. GWB is not playing along.
If he could actually fix this "monetary mercantilist" game that has been played on us in this term, he should get a Nobel for economics. Not that he will fix it, but he will make a return to the older status quo quite politically painful for whoever follows him.
China is still only a one or two trillion dollar economy. How can an economy that size finance the debts of an eleven trillion dollar economy?
In the past (as in Clinton or carter) when ever this sort of thing happened we propped the dollar up whenever our "partners" starting whinging. We had less import so nobody cared and our "trading partners" (great euphemism, that one) coughed a bit and then got back on the gravy train as the markets returned to a "strong dollar."
CHina and the EU want to be global economic powers. Well, welcome to the club.
The Euros were not bitching about theireconomies when the EUro was at .75 to the dollar, now where they?
It is just that dang GWB going around and upsetting apple carts.
they do not finance government debt = they do not finance private debt
purchasing power grown-up version
Note in top graph gold-$ link cut, that was international.
it was cut for us in 33 and silver-$ cut in '64
Since China's economic modernization began over a decade ago, 120 million rural laborers have moved into cities, but another 200 or 300 million people need to move into the cities from the countryside to spur development, he said.
Now are we bot missing something like a billion people here? BTW, this guy is a big time consultant for the Europeans.
China may move to a basket but not soon, and it will not help them. The rest of the world will call in their chips. Everyone else looked the other way when they were just sapping us. Now that they are hurting it is a different story.
People forget that much of the boom in China is driven by investment in anticipation of moreexport and that huge internal market that we have been hearing about for the last 150 years or so.
Well the USA is growing tired of the game and it will take decades for the market to appear, if it ever does.
You are graphing inflation here, not FX prices.
I wonder if this is tied to China withdrawing their bid to have two of their banks on the on wall street? They could not reach the standards that were required of them to have them posted there....something like that. I just skimmed the story yesterday.
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. That will teach them that it isn't a good idea to peg your currency to the big dog's.
Right ON!!
Don't know how you figure. The Chinese are huge holders of our debt. If they no longer want our currency, and the Japanese have already decided not to buy more of our debt, where do you think the money is going to come from?
The World Bank is now warning that unless we reduce our debt, they may no longer be able to consider our currency stable.
How about getting rid of social security and medicaid all together. For that matter, how about scrapping the education system. How about those troops, they're just whiners, they don't need armour, they don't need tanks.
Gee, how about more tax cuts. How about more spending. Why not fiddle while Rome burns!!!
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