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Don't believe the doubters: America's decline and fall is a long way off yet
The Times (U.K.) ^ | 01/21/05 | Gerard Baker

Posted on 01/20/2005 2:41:47 PM PST by Pokey78

THE INAUGURATION of an American president is an introspective affair, the ultimate home-brewed celebration of the continuing success of this great continental experiment.

Beneath the Greek-echoing columns of the Capitol building yesterday assembled the protagonists of the American demos — the fabled three branches of government, plus the modern successors to the citizen-militia, an independent press, and above all, of course, the people, tens of thousands of them, arrayed in a snowy tableau off to the hinterland’s horizon.

But with billions able to watch the event around the world, the obverse of this democratic coin is its imperial head. A presidential inauguration is a chance for America to remind the world who is boss, to demonstrate that the modern United States is the inheritor not only of Greece’s glory but of Rome’s reach.

President Bush’s second inaugural address professed anew this self-confidence of a nation tirelessly willing and uniquely empowered to take on the responsibilities of global leadership. And yet behind the pageantry and in between the rhetorical tropes, it was not hard to spot an unusual level of anxiety and uncertainty among Americans about their country’s leadership in the world.

The war in Iraq has sapped the brimming self-confidence with which America greeted the new century. The strength and boldness of the US response to September 11 has given way to a nervy resignation about the limits of American power. In financial terms an unsettling sense that America is increasingly beholden to rising powers across the oceans has infected its famous optimism.

Though Americans gave Mr Bush another four years in November, they did so, not so much in a spirit of vaulting confidence but of constrained choices. As he begins a new term, polls suggest that Americans remain uncharacteristically gloomy about the future. A solid majority believes, just as it did on election day, that the US is on the wrong track.

Iraq is the main reason, of course. Before Iraq, and even after the shock of September 11, it was commonplace to think that America could achieve by arms more or less anything it wanted. The doubts generated by Vietnam had been banished in a decade of military achievements — in Kuwait, Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan. Now, to be stymied by a few thousand insurgents in Iraq is a bitter, and unexpected, revelation of the limits to ambition.

The US economy too, the other pillar of reborn American pride in the 1990s, is as much a fount of worry and self-doubt. The dollar continues to struggle under a mountain of public and private debt. You could not help but notice the symbolism this week of a European consortium unveiling an aircraft to eclipse Boeing’s dominance. Surprising books about the rising power of a united Europe are ascending the bestseller lists.

More plausibly, perhaps, Americans look at their growing dependence on Asia’s rapidly expanding economy and wonder if this is the future. China, and increasingly India, are talked of as rivals, not in some distant future, but in the world that is taking shape now.

What to make of all this? The first thing to note is that we have been here before. Previous premature judgments about America’s decline enjoin us to be a little circumspect about its current difficulties. Even as American pre-eminence was realised in the past 60 years, the country has been racked by prolonged periods of self-doubt. In the 1950s, half the nation was convinced it was losing the Cold War. Vietnam eroded American confidence, not only in its power but even in the justice of its cause. In 1989, the apotheosis of American success, the fall of the Berlin Wall, was seen by many as the passing of an era of American supremacy. Japan and Germany were going to rule the world, we were told.

All these alarms proved false. Will this incipient post-Iraq malaise prove to be any different? It is too early yet to declare Iraq a failure. True, the Bush Administration, and those of us who supported it, were wrong to believe that a quick show of force would bring the walls of tyranny crashing down. It will indeed be a long slog. But if the US can stay the course, the auguries are still positive. The principal obstacle to American goals there, and in the broader Middle East, is not the brittleness of US power, but the willingness of the American people to shoulder its burden.

The prospects for the economic foundations on which American supremacy has been built are harder to predict. We need not dwell too long, Airbus superjumbo or no, on the threat from a united Europe. This ageing, genteel, pacifist, dysfunctional old Continent is not going to be challenging anyone in my lifetime.

Asia is different. China’s ascent to global pre-eminence, or at least parity with America, looks inevitable. Like the US it has a vast internal market, a motivated and increasingly skilled workforce. Its current three-to-one population edge over the US may fall, but it will still be a giant. India’s ascent has farther to go but looks equally assured.

The rise of rival economic power centres does not necessarily spell America’s end. The resilience of the US economy through the past four turbulent years — in contrast to Europe and Japan — is a monument to its capacity to recreate itself. But more important even than America’s dynamism and economic resilience is the durability of its central ethos: the power of freedom. The genius of the founding fathers, which was celebrated again yesterday, has created the world ’s most stable, successful, and, for all the current phobias, still the most appealing model of society for humankind. The world may grow and change around it, but I would not bet on America’s eclipse just yet.

gerard.baker@thetimes.co.uk


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Germany; News/Current Events; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: inauguraladdress; w2
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1 posted on 01/20/2005 2:41:48 PM PST by Pokey78
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To: Pokey78

What a load of steaming dung.


2 posted on 01/20/2005 2:48:27 PM PST by DCBurgess58 (We have a French knife in our back)
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To: Pokey78

America alive and well. Watch the election, inauguration and free enterprise system work day in and day out. For the whole world to see. If they don't like it, don't watch.


3 posted on 01/20/2005 2:49:26 PM PST by handy old one (It is unbecoming for young men to utter maxims. Aristotle)
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To: DCBurgess58

Oh, I don't know.

This last paragraph is fairly revealing!

"The rise of rival economic power centres does not necessarily spell America’s end. The resilience of the US economy through the past four turbulent years — in contrast to Europe and Japan — is a monument to its capacity to recreate itself. But more important even than America’s dynamism and economic resilience is the durability of its central ethos: the power of freedom. The genius of the founding fathers, which was celebrated again yesterday, has created the world ’s most stable, successful, and, for all the current phobias, still the most appealing model of society for humankind. The world may grow and change around it, but I would not bet on America’s eclipse just yet."

No matter how hard socialists try, they just can't deny America's greatness!


4 posted on 01/20/2005 2:50:25 PM PST by Bigh4u2
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Comment #5 Removed by Moderator

To: DCBurgess58

Did you read the same article that I did? I liked it.


6 posted on 01/20/2005 2:55:53 PM PST by Mears
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To: John_Wheatley

Yes! In an 'offhanded way'.

Until the last paragraph that is!


7 posted on 01/20/2005 2:56:26 PM PST by Bigh4u2
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To: John_Wheatley
Did you read it? He is actually praising America.

There's a pretty large segment of people that basically can't understand an article that isn't some simplistic Coulter or WingNutDaily rant, or they stop reading an article when they come to the first sentence they have the slightest disagreement with.

8 posted on 01/20/2005 3:03:19 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: DCBurgess58

Did we read the same article? It said that unlike Europe, America will be able to maintain its competetive edge while China and India become more industrialized and powerful. And if you don't believe that China is going to continue to gain strength, then you're simply in a dream world. 1.3 BILLION people, an abundance of resources, and continued liberalization of the economy means its only a matter of time before it catches up with us.


9 posted on 01/20/2005 3:04:40 PM PST by jamesissmall218
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To: DCBurgess58

"The genius of the founding fathers, which was celebrated again yesterday, has created the world ’s most stable, successful, and, for all the current phobias, still the most appealing model of society for humankind."

What is dung about this?

The strength and weakness of the US is the same, our ability to doubt ourselves.


10 posted on 01/20/2005 3:04:48 PM PST by Purple GOPer
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Comment #11 Removed by Moderator

To: jamesissmall218

"An abundance of resources"? You mean people, right?


12 posted on 01/20/2005 3:17:27 PM PST by monkeywrench
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To: Pokey78
..plus the modern successors to the citizen-militia, an independent press,...

I don't think that I am ready to to allow the repeal of the 2nd Amendment on the basis that Dan Rather will be a bastion of effective resistance to governmental tyranny.

13 posted on 01/20/2005 3:29:05 PM PST by elbucko (Feral Republican)
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To: monkeywrench

Absolutely. Its not oil or ore but rather the free mind that creates wealth. I LOVE the USA!


14 posted on 01/20/2005 3:29:38 PM PST by wildcatf4f3 (out of the sun)
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To: wildcatf4f3

You're right, of course, but they don't have an abundance of those in china. Hopefully they'll stand up for freedom.


15 posted on 01/20/2005 3:32:01 PM PST by monkeywrench
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To: just too late
Get someone to read it to you, you half wit!

Half Wit?

You can go to hell, I'm sick and tired of seeing things like:

A presidential inauguration is a chance for America to remind the world who is boss

A presidential inauguration is a ceremomy for the swearing in of our president. Is is for American public consumption, not some stage managed theater to impress the world.

The war in Iraq has sapped the brimming self-confidence with which America greeted the new century

Excuse me? And the evidence for saying this is?

polls suggest that Americans remain uncharacteristically gloomy about the future. A solid majority believes, just as it did on election day, that the US is on the wrong track

Once again, excuse me? What polls show a majority of Americans believe we're on the wrong track.

I will amend my first post just for you... What a load of smelly steaming dung. I don't give Damn if there is a backhanded compliment in the last paragraph. Perhaps you could just STFU about what other people post.

16 posted on 01/20/2005 3:34:59 PM PST by DCBurgess58 (We have a French knife in our back)
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To: Pokey78
Never underestimate the creativity and adaptability of free men and women.

Command economies and fascism can only take you so far, and tend towards inflexibility and stagnation.

17 posted on 01/20/2005 3:42:13 PM PST by FierceDraka (The Democratic Party - Aiding and Abetting The Enemies of America Since 1968)
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To: Pokey78
It is too early yet to declare Iraq a failure.

Considerably too early. But then, declaring it a success is impossible if you have no stated criteria for success, and that seems to me to be a singular shortcoming of media, planners, and yes, the Bush administration itself.

The lack of it is what is behind the hostile media's ability to constantly raise the bar, so don't expect a lot of action there. It is also responsible for the admininstration's freedom of action on the topic, so there's a good deal of motivation to keep that nebulous on their side as well. But it does affect morale, as the article implies, and I think it's time to address the topic publicly.

Yes, this will tie the administration's hands a bit and allow its many enemies to twist it into something not intended. That is what enemies do. I do not think anything so concrete as a timetable is required here; a timetable will be a comfort to our enemies and thoroughly exploitable. But a clearer statement of specific objectives is, I submit, overdue.

18 posted on 01/20/2005 3:50:53 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: DCBurgess58
What a load of steaming dung.

Huh? What page are you on? It's a good article.

They are actually saying something good about America.....or is THAT your problem with it?

19 posted on 01/20/2005 4:10:31 PM PST by processing please hold (Islam and Christianity do not mix ----9-11 taught us that)
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To: DCBurgess58
I went back and it read again. There were some things that popped out at me that I didn't see with the first reading.

I apologize for my smarmy tone.

20 posted on 01/20/2005 4:17:04 PM PST by processing please hold (Islam and Christianity do not mix ----9-11 taught us that)
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