Ford Beats Reagan! (How conservatism won in 1980 by losing in 1976)

The Weekly Standard ^ | January 24, 2005 | Robert D. Novak

[John Lenin]

The GOP is one election away from big loses if the keep spending like drunken sailors.

[Larry381]

If JFK hadn't been assassinated, could Goldwater have beaten him?? What would have been different had this have happened??

Interesting question. I remember reading in early 1963(in between a recording session of a new girl group called The Ronettes) a Time magazine article doing a rundown of a possible Goldwater-Kennedy race and the consensus was that Goldwater could have won. People today have no idea how much Kennedy was hated in the south & border states and he probably would have lost the entire south. That together with the traditional Rep states in the Midwest & west might have given Goldwater a pretty good shot. If I remember right one of the main reasons Kennedy visited Texas in Nov 63 was to try and shore up his support in that state-a state he probably would have lost.

[Clemenza]

If Scoop Jackson would have won the Democratic nomination in '72 or '76, there would have been no "Reagan Democrats."

[Vigilanteman]

Perhaps I am being self-centered, but I felt a turning point in the 1976 campaign (my first) could have happened when Ronald Reagan came to North Dakota to campaign for our 18 convention delegates.

I was honored to speak in his behalf to the county convention, the largest in the state which also was home to most of the state party leadership. The rank-and-file were behind Reagan by a 4-1 margin. Ford just did not excite anyone. Nevertheless, the RINO leadership's idea of compromise was to split the state delegation 9-9 and then have the audacity to tell the Reagan backers that under the rules of the convention, they could have awarded all 18 delegates to Ford.

Reagan clearly had the momentum in June when he made the trip to North Dakota. That decision by the party leadership clearly slowed his drive for the delegates needed to win.

Some of the young turks (myself included) actually left the party and cast their lots with the Democrats after that snub. Carter did not excite me, but our Democratic governor was a moral, decent man who had the leadership and vision which Ford sorely lacked.

[fhayek]

I am always taken by the fact that Ronald Regan was always in the right place at the right time. Put another way, he was always where he needed to be. It is uncanny. I confess that I do not necessariy subscribe to divine interventionalism, but if anyone was tapped by God, it was Ronald Reagan. He lost in 1976 because he was supposed to lose. And we are all much richer because of it.

[sittnick]

If Scoop Jackson would have won the Democratic nomination in '72 or '76, there would have been no "Reagan Democrats."

That might be true, but then the same could be said of George Wallace. Jackson ran decently in '76 in a handful of states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Washington. He did not run well enough to place any better than 4th or 5th, and ran out of money in April when April was still early in the primary cycle.

He finished no better than fifth, behind Carter, Jerry Brown (who I believe would have won the nomination if he started earlier), Frank Church and even Mo Udall. I don't see him gaining a lot of ground in '76 if you remove one or two of those candidates. The southerners might have backed someone completely different (e.g. Lloyd Bentsen). A Carter/Jackson ticket might have positioned the Dems a bit better in 1980, but probably not. (That is also assuming a Carter/Jackson ticket would have beaten a Ford/Dole ticket.)

[sittnick]

Perhaps I am being self-centered, but I felt a turning point in the 1976 campaign (my first) could have happened when Ronald Reagan came to North Dakota to campaign for our 18 convention delegates.

That might have been a turning point, but the two real turning points were North Carolina and Texas. North Carolina, because Reagan had to prove he could win somewhere, and Texas, because Ford could have finished Reagan off there, and instead loast ALL 96 DISTRICTS and the four bonus delegates.

[wrathof59]

If Ford would have won in '76, there would have been no Ronald Reagan Revolution.

IMHO, we would now be a 90% socialist country and look like Canada. Arghh.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

You think so?

Because I think quite the opposite. I think Reagen would have still won but in 1984. He would not have had Iran to deal with and we would not be facing another war to clean up Carters little mess.

The Gulf War never would have happened and Saddam would be long gone.

[Vigilanteman]

Right you are insofar as this turned a Quioxitic Quest into a real run. Once Reagan showed he could win, a lot of people (including me) who would have normally sat on the sidelines came out to support Reagan. It was thanks mainly to these people that Ford came as close as he did to winning.

The RINO wing still loves to blame Ford for dropping Nelson Rockerfeller from the ticket, pointing out that New York's 41 electoral votes alone would have given Ford the majority needed to win.

While Ford did well enough in New York he actually might have won with Rockerfeller still on the ticket, it is likely that any gains here would have been off-set by losses in flyover country.

Recall that Carter ran a pretty slick populist campaign and was actually quite competitive in states like Virginia, Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Iowa and Illinois where Ford won by less than 2%.

[Vigilanteman]

Right you are insofar as this turned a Quioxitic Quest into a real run. Once Reagan showed he could win, a lot of people (including me) who would have normally sat on the sidelines came out to support Reagan. It was thanks mainly to these people that Ford came as close as he did to winning.

The RINO wing still loves to blame Ford for dropping Nelson Rockerfeller from the ticket, pointing out that New York's 41 electoral votes alone would have given Ford the majority needed to win.

While Ford did well enough in New York he actually might have won with Rockerfeller still on the ticket, it is likely that any gains here would have been off-set by losses in flyover country.

Recall that Carter ran a pretty slick populist campaign and was actually quite competitive in states like Virginia, Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Iowa and Illinois where Ford won by less than 2%.

[ConservativeDude]

Would anyone happen to have a link to the video of RR's 76 speech which he gave on the stage, impromptu, congratulating Ford?

I need this video.