CIA Excludes Russia from Superpowers of Future

Kommersant ^ | JANUARY 14, 2005

[Paul_Denton]

CIA Excludes Russia from Superpowers of Future

January 14, A group of analysts from U.S. intelligence has worked out several scenarios of world development, The Boston Grobe reports.

Among them there is an “American World” (The United States will form a new world order), “New Caliphate” (Islamic States exert influence on western democratic communities). “Circle of Fear” (terrorists get mass-destruction arms and the entire world takes such tough measures that the world becomes totalitarian), “Davos World” (India and China become more influential than the United Stated or the European Union at the international political arena).

However, none of these scenarios mention Russia as a country of influence. Analysts believe Russia will remain an important partner for western countries and India and China due to its rich natural resources. The report notes that Russia’s main problems in the nearest 15 years will be a hard demographical situation, AIDS, unstable South and Caucasus, Islamic extremism and, as a result, ethnic conflicts.

The report “Mapping the Global Future” has been prepared by analysts of National Intelligence Council, which includes members of the CIA and other U.S. intelligence services.

[Arkie2]

This from the agency that saw 9-11 coming (sarcasm). I'm not impressed. Anything they publish has more to do with their upcoming budget requirements than threats to the nation.

[Poohbah]

Given the CIA's abysmal record at prognostication, the Politburo in Beijing is reading this report and saying, "Comrades, we are, like, SO totally doomed."

[mrsmith]

http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html

[squidly]

Is this the geopolitical equivalent of being left off the People magazine Best Dressed list?

[GSlob]

Well, this prognosis somewhat reminds of a seasonal weather forecast: the weather in summer can be reasonably expected to be warmer than in winter months... Linear interpolation of existing trends has its uses, and its limits.

[drt1]

You know, everyone ignores the fact that China could well go the way of the USSR. Contrary to the accepted common wisdom, China has many of the same problems that beset the USSR in terms of serious ethnic, nationalistic and geographic/economic disparities. China (PRC) is not the monolith many believe nor is control so complete as to rule out regional or ethnic divisions leading to serious political instability.

[snowsislander]

You know, everyone ignores the fact that China could well go the way of the USSR. Contrary to the accepted common wisdom, China has many of the same problems that beset the USSR in terms of serious ethnic, nationalistic and geographic/economic disparities. China (PRC) is not the monolith many believe nor is control so complete as to rule out regional or ethnic divisions leading to serious political instability.

China is growing wealthy, something that we never allowed the Soviet Union to do. The government of a wealthy totalitarian state is in my guesstimate more likely to stay in power than a poor one.

[Paul_Denton]

Yes I know. China's collapse is inevitable. I do not belive what the CIA says either. However in its dismal condition it will be a LONG TIME before Russia becomes what it was during the cold war (even then they could not match the US nuke for nuke or tank for tank).

[Paul_Denton]

There has been a lot of uprisings and conflicts (especially ethnic conflicts) within China. No longer just peaceful protests but events where chinese police get killed.

Tianenmen Square did not silence the people (as proven by the violence or at least the tip of the iceberg we hear about). Brainwashing never worked outside of the big cities. There is also the Chinese water crisis that even their overgrown dam has failed to solve. Rich or not, China's communist party is losing its grip. Short of using nukes on its own populace (which would mean killing its own soldiers and police so necessary to keeping the iron grip), China's communist party WILL crumble.

[JonDavid]

Sound like New World Order conspiracy propaganda. The NWO myth was actually started by the Soviets in the 1920's.

[drt1]

That is partly my point. The "Wealthy" China is largely confined to the Coastal regions/Easter and Southeastern sections of the country. The rest of the country is very economically depressed. Given that, even the thriving portion is at some level of risk due to the almost complete dependence upon predatory trade as the engine of economic growth. I'm not so certain that these mercantilistic policies can avoid serious repercussions.

[Poohbah]

The ChiCom coastal elites are getting tired of carrying the hinterland.

[drt1]

Please see my post 12

[Paul_Denton]

Wealthy China is at risk if they antagonize the US enough. Attacking Taiwan, Japan, or supporting a North Korean attack on South Korea would mean the end of the cash flow that sustains their entire country. This would lead to people getting desperate and the enire place would crumble from within, especially with their military deployed and unable to keep the populace in check.

[GOP_1900AD]

Bird cage liner ...

[Paul_Denton]

Did I ever imply that I was dumb enough belived this stuff? No I did not.

[dk/coro]

We might even carry your argument a step further:

Let's look at populations, economic demand and productivity, and demographics. These alone support the CIA generalized conclusions. Every "empire" has its peak; and I submit ours was about the time we were all learning to use a hula-hoop -- about the mid 60's.

Wen we transitioned from a creditor to a debtor nation, the downslope SLOWLY commenced, in my view. And no hegemonic world power has ever been able to sustain the collective burden imposed b world leadership for a sustained period/

I consider it our challenge to broaden the down-side of the sine curve -- and to ensure the slope is as "ripple-free" of acceleration as possible.

I further believe the resources required to compete against the challenges posed by Islamism (in its many manifestations) will generate increased monetary and political burdens that we have yet to calculate.

Still, all in all, I would not trade places with a soul anyplace on Mother earth!!! It has been one heck of a run -- and it ain't over yet, by a long shot!

[mercy]

Overpaid Ivory tower eggheads pulling each other's puds. Circle jerk.

[GOP_1900AD]

Relax, my comment was not direct at you personally, it was directed at those who wrote the report.