Analysis: A(n Israeli) government with no grace period

The Jerusalem Post ^ | 10 January 2005 | Gil Hoffman

[anotherview]

Jan. 10, 2005 22:50
Analysis: A government with no grace period
By GIL HOFFMAN

Coalition partners Sharon, Peres

Usually the first 100 days of a new coalition's tenure are the only time in Israel of genuine political tranquility.

Political reporters take a vacation and allow diplomatic reporters to start doing their job, reporting about a functioning government that is temporarily free of political stress.

Not this time.

Monday's vote on the formation of a new government that passed thanks to the abstentions of Arab MKs and charity votes from Yahad sent Prime Minister Ariel Sharon a warning that he will not get to enjoy the standard period of grace.

"I guess I won't be able to go to Switzerland," a top Sharon advisor said in typical understatement.

The so-called Likud rebels surprised even themselves with the effectiveness of their protest votes against the new coalition. Rebel leader Uzi Landau promised to make Sharon sweat with every vote.

On a day when Shinui chairman Yosef Lapid was installed as the new opposition leader, Landau made it clear who the real opposition is to Sharon and the disengagement plan. The battle will continue on Wednesday with a vote on the 2005 state budget and with a pressure campaign that will stop at nothing to stop disengagement.

Expect demonstrations outside the Jerusalem homes of United Torah Judaism mentor Rabbi Yosef Shalom Elyashiv, who let UTJ join the coalition conditionally for three months, and Shas mentor Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, who will rule within weeks whether to allow Shas to join the government.

The rebels will also try to exacerbate the tensions created by Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres taking away responsibilities from Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

Sources close to Netanyahu said that Sharon can escape his current predicament in three ways: He can embark on a national referendum, he can reach an agreement with the Likud rebels, or he can get Shas to join the coalition.

Sharon's associates said that only the final option is realistic. Shas has made two demands: serious improvements on social issues and the unilateral disengagement plan becoming less unilateral. Sharon is ready to comply with the first demand now and the second as soon as possible.

Ironically, the rebels are responsible for forcing Sharon to expedite diplomatic overtures to new Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, in order to get Shas into the government. Without Shas, the settlers can say that the government is dependent on the votes of Arabs and political opportunists, just like the second Oslo agreement in 1995.

Sharon made a wise decision to delay appointing new Likud ministers and deputy ministers until after negotiations with Shas. Had he made the appointments on Sunday as planned, it is possible that disgruntled MKs who were not promoted could have prevented the new coalition from passing.

If Shas stays out of the coalition, Sharon's choices will be initiating early elections or continuing to hang on by a thread. The Likud convention's decision last Thursday to prevent new members from voting for Likud leader will make Sharon think twice before embarking on an election he could easily lose.

Sharon's associates were seen following the vote on the coalition repeating over and over again "it can't go on this way."

But unfortunately for Sharon, this way, headaches and all, is the only way it can go on.

[Bahbah]

Lovely picture of Netanya on your page. What a gorgeous beach.

[anotherview]

Thanks. It is beautiful.

Thanks to the American media too many people don't realize how beautiful and how peaceful most of Israel is.

[Bahbah]

"Thanks to the American media too many people don't realize...."

Thanks to the MSM, there are many things that the American people don't realize. I'm so grateful for the internet and for FR.

[Cicero]

The Labour Party managed to muck up Likud when they left power by setting things up so Sharon was eligible for Prime Minster but Netanyahu was not, because he was not an MP at the time the former government dissolved.

That meant that Sharon got the job rather than Netanyahu, and IMHO things have gone downhill ever since. Labour had destroyed itself by its naive stupidity in handling the "peace process," and Likud had a real opportunity, which I think Sharon has now pretty well frittered away.

The rebel Likud MP's can force a vote of confidence, but it's not clear that Likud would get as many votes now as they did the last time. I hope they can get their act together while Bush is still in office and willing to give Israel some real help.