Posted on 01/04/2005 8:56:14 PM PST by adaven
Trio of storm systems could have devastating impact on U.S.
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON - Moisture-laden storms from the north, west and south are likely to converge on much of America over the next several days in what could be a once-in-a-generation onslaught, meteorologists forecast Tuesday.
If the gloomy computer models at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center are right, we'll see this terrible trio:
All three are likely to meet somewhere in the nation's midsection and cause even more problems, sparing only areas east of the Appalachian Mountains.
"You're talking a two- or three-times-a-century type of thing," said prediction center senior meteorologist James Wagner, who's been forecasting storms since 1965. "It's a pattern that has a little bit of everything."
While the predicted onslaught is nothing compared with the tsunami that ravaged South Asia last week, the combo storms could damage property and cause a few deaths.
The exact time and place of the predicted one-two-three punch changes slightly with every new forecast. But in its weekly "hazards assessment," the National Weather Service alerted meteorologists and disaster specialists Tuesday that flooding and frigid weather could start as early as Friday and stretch into early next week, if not longer.
"It's a situation that looks pretty potent," Ed O'Lenic, the Climate Prediction Center's operations chief, told Knight Ridder. "A large part of North America looks like it's going to be affected."
Kelly Redmond, the deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev., where an unusual 18 inches of snow is on the ground already, said the expected heavy Western rains could cause avalanches. Since Oct. 1, Southern California and western Arizona have had three to four times the normal precipitation for the area.
"Somebody is in for something pretty darn interesting," Redmond said.
The last time a similar situation seemed to be brewing - especially in the West - was in January 1950, O'Lenic said. That month, 21 inches of snow hit Seattle, killing 13 people in an extended freeze, and Sunnyvale, Calif., got an unusual tornado.
The same scenario played out in 1937, when there was record flooding in the Ohio River Valley, said Wagner, of the prediction center.
Meteorologists caution that their predictions are only as good as their computer models. And forecasts get less accurate the farther into the future they attempt to predict.
"The models tend to overdo the formation of these really exciting weather formations for us," said Mike Wallace, a University of Washington atmospheric scientist.
Yet the more Wallace studied the models the more he became convinced that something wicked was coming this way.
"It all fits together nicely," Wallace said. "There's going to be weather in the headlines this weekend, that's for sure."
Wagner was worried about the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys as the places where the three nasty storm systems could meet, probably with snow, thunderstorms, severe ice storms and flooding. Some of those areas already are flooded.
The converging storms are being steered by high-pressure ridges off Alaska and Florida and are part of a temporary change in world climate conditions, O'Lenic said.
Over equatorial Indonesia, east of where the tsunami hit, meteorologists have identified a weather-making phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's producing extra-stormy weather to its east. Similar oscillations in the north Atlantic and north Pacific are changing global weather patterns. Add to the strange mix this year's mild El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific - which is unusually far west, Redmond said.
There's also another, more playful explanation: The nation's weathermen are about to converge on Southern California, and they bring bad weather with them.
The American Meteorological Society will meet next week in usually tranquil San Diego, which should be hit with the predicted storms and accompanying flooding in time for the group's gathering.
In 1987,when the meteorologists met in San Antonio for their convention, the city had ice storms. In 1993, when they gathered in Anaheim, Calif., it rained for 4.5 out of five days and triggered mudslides. Atlanta got rare snow during the meteorologists' 1996 convention. And in 2003 in Long Beach, Calif., heavy rain greeted them.
Ron McPherson, the group's recently retired executive director, said: "It always rains on the weatherman's parade."
We're doomed.
Doomed.
Decent little storm we've got coming through. All in all, can't complain as it is the 1st week in January and I'll be firing up the snowblower for the first time tomorrow morning. 8-15 inches forecast for eastern Nebraska, with the heaviest coming down tomorrow afternoon.
We're all gonna die!
Well, someday, anyhow.
}:-)4
I couldn't find anything on the weather channel about a storm in the Gulf. Maybe just warm air moving in? We don't even have much rain probability here this next week.
Is this Bushes fault?
Here in Kansas, I just stepped off my front porch right into a patch of black ice, and fell on my hiny. OWWWW!!
Tread carefully, Freepers!
I'll get to fire up the blower for the second time this season when I get home from work...go to bed, then get up and do it again at least once before work tomorrow...fun, ain't it?
All I know is that it has been raining non stop in San Diego we have snow off the highways floods everywhere so weird weather going on but it appears weird weather is now everywhere and going to get worse, if we were to have a mass catastrophe like the Tsunami's we will all be on our own there is only so many people and supplies to go around.
later read
Sorry :-)
The Houston Humidity Express.
Having lived in Houston for much of my life, I feel ok with poking a little fun.
Almost 80 here in Florida today. Temps in upper 50s tonight. Will stay this way for at least the next week.
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We most certainly are doomed!
The global warming is upon us!
Oh!.....I forgot that it is Bush's fault for dropping bombs on Afghanistan and Iraq.(global vibrations)
heh, heh, heh!!!!!(buy a umbrella)
BFD. The Pinapple Express sets up every year. How do they think we get the rainy season in Nor Cal?
gloom & doom alert
We're under a flash flood watch and right now there's freezing rain falling less than 30 miles from my location. By Sunday we'll be back up to 70 though. Y'know, 70 degrees wasn't uncommon in Houston when I lived there. I've lived in SE Ok for 3 years now, been visiting for 10 years prior to that and I've never seen 70 during January before. One day last week it was warm enough I had to turn the a/c back on...not that it was actually hot outside, if I remember correctly the high was 72 but with the sun shining it sure made the house hot.
We can call it Pedo Gigantesco de Mexico (Giant Fart of Mexico)
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