Posted on 12/27/2004 9:23:23 AM PST by calcowgirl
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush faces a major rebellion within his own party if he follows through on a promise to push legislation that would offer millions of illegal immigrants a path to U.S. citizenship. Almost no issue divides Republicans as deeply.
To get the guest-worker initiative through Congress, Bush will need to go against the wishes of many Republicans and forge bipartisan alliances. That's what President Clinton did in 1993 to win approval for a free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, over objections of a large bloc of congressional Democrats.
The chance seems slim for finding common ground between those in favor of liberalized immigration laws - Bush, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for example - and those who want fewer immigrants, tougher border controls and harsher penalties.
Opposition is strongest among House Republicans.
"In our party, this is a deep division that is growing deeper every minute," says Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo. He heads a group of 70 lawmakers who are against easing immigration laws.
Tancredo said Bush's guest-worker proposal is "a pig with lipstick" and will not pass.
Bush asserts that he won valuable "political capital" in the election and intends to spend it. It is not clear how much of that he is willing to spend on the immigration measure.
Higher on his list of priorities is overhauling the Social Security system, rewriting the tax laws, limiting lawsuit judgments, and making his first-term tax cuts permanent.
An estimated 10 million immigrants live in the United States illegally; the vast majority are from Mexico, with an additional million arriving every year.
A hint of the trouble ahead for Bush on immigration came this month when proposals to tighten - not ease - border restrictions nearly undermined a bill to restructure U.S. intelligence agencies.
The chairman of the House Judiciary Committee wanted the measure to bar states from giving a driver's license to illegal immigrants. Rep. James Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., said some of the Sept. 11 hijackers gained access to U.S. aircraft by using a driver's license as identification.
Sensenbrenner ultimately backed down, but only after House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill, promised that the chairman's proposal would be considered in separate legislation in 2005.
Hastert also indicated he would not move ahead on major legislation unless it was supported by a majority of Republicans in the GOP-controlled House - and that he would not rely on Democratic support to pass a bill.
Immigration overhaul is "an issue that splits both parties, and given the new Hastert rule, may never go anywhere," said William A. Niskanen, chairman of the libertarian Cato Institute. Niskanen was a member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers.
The president's plan would grant temporary-worker status, for three years to six years, to millions of undocumented workers. It also would it easier for those workers to get permanent U.S. citizenship.
As governor of Texas, Bush was committed to immigration changes. As president, he came close to making a deal with Mexican President Vicente Fox in the days before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Those plans were put on hold as tighter borders took on a higher priority for the United States.
As a presidential candidate, both in 2000 and 2004, Bush eagerly courted Hispanics, the fastest-growing ethnic group in the electorate.
"We will keep working to make this nation a welcoming place for Hispanic people, a land of opportunity para todos (for all) who live here in America," Bush told the League of United Latin American Citizens last summer.
Bush claimed 35 percent of Hispanic voters in 2000 and at least 40 percent last Nov. 2, according to exit polls. That compares with the 21 percent won by Bob Dole in 1996 and the 25 percent that Bush's father got in 1992.
Republican consultants suggest Bush will not make a big push for his immigration bill until he has achieved his goals on Social Security and the tax laws. They also say the president may jettison the immigration bill if it would jeopardize other parts of his agenda.
Inside the administration, nobody is suggesting that passing the immigration plan would be anything other than extremely difficult.
"We don't want to overpromise," Secretary of State Colin Powell said during a visit last month to Mexico City.
EDITOR'S NOTE — Tom Raum has covered Washington for The Associated Press since 1973, including five presidencies.
You must be a liberal becuase you always shift the argument. What we are discussing is the fact that Corporate America wants this worker program so as to avoid paying higher wages to Americans. They could care less if 50 or 100 cram into a tenement or live like animals.
If they find a way to clean toilets faster, good for them, but they have thus far not discovered a way to do that.
Wait till your job goes to some illegal willing to work for a fraction of the wage you get paid. You will sing a different tune amigo.
Is the poco going loco, over his cowardice to say that FED govt. unions are closed shops.
If you want to discus unions, then ping me to a thread about unions.
See post #84.
Your welcome.
I don't believe she'll ever put out a bill that would satisfy me on this issue so I'm not going to worry about it. The kool-aid drinkers bring it up as a diversionary tactic in the debate because they have little else.
I agree 100%. Dane's newest diversion is unions.
I feel sorry for the American workers who are still in the workforce and whose jobs are being targeted by greedy companies wanting to replace them with guest workers.
I live in NY and we are literally swamped with illegals standing on corners interupting traffic and the like. They are rude, dirty, and leave trash everywhere, even on the lawns of private homes.
A Hospital is a largely hispanic area is closing due to financial red ink. Why, these people use the emergency room for general care. Who do you think pays the bill? No one!
By law, you can't refuse anyone emergency room care.
I know, your preaching to the choir.
What is discussed at Free Republic on immigration is totally irrelevant. Congress is compelled to amend the original act so as to take care of the security problems.
That reform bill will contain the 'earned legalization' language.
After it is all said and done, you will be looking back in regret.
I guess the reason I get so worked up about this is because GWB obviously never read Gibbons and the fall of Rome. We are going the same way, fast.
That's why I say:
"Legalization by deportation - not legislation is the only common sense avenue for illegals. Bankruptcy is the only common sense avenue for felon employers."
I'd love to see a mandatory fine of sixty percent of a company's reported net annual income for hiring any illegal. No excuses - period.
Your union allegiance is relevant to your every immigration post. As is hadenuf's and others.
Talk about conflict of interest.
That would be nice and send the right signal.
Sorry, no conflict of interest here; just speculation on your part.
Funny you should mention productivity in an illegal (read cheap) labor thread. Funny because cheap labor is the enemy of productive labor. Why would anyone invests in technology or innovative procedures when they can just use cheap labor instead? If you care to research this at all just look at the difference between the high (relatively) labor north and the cheap (slave) labor south in pre civil war USA. One can learn a get deal studying history, one sees the north inventing, innovating, building factories etc but the south doesn't it relies instead on cheap labor. Also interesting to note that the use of slave labor also impoverished free white (and black) labor since free labor had to compete with slave labor.
Bottom line is cheap labor = poor society. Now maybe yall what to be poor, but I'd knida like to remain middle class, but that is going to be difficult with the all out assault on the middle class that the Bush administration has undertaken. I don't think Bush means to put the US middle class in the poor house but that will be the result of his economic policies. Unfortunately for us, Bush is clueless about middle America and completely out of touch with reality, kinda like his dad. A good man, means well but just plain clueless.
His/her horn's tuned to the same frequency as bayourod's.
'rod, I pung ya cause I won't talk about you to your back....;-)
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