Posted on 12/24/2004 8:13:41 PM PST by Fitzcarraldo
Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office December 24, 2004
2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronmers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk) for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale.
Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029.
Ah.....don't worry about it. It still has a 99 percent chance of a miss. The scale means nothing when you compare it to the actual probability of a hit, 1 percent.
Sounds like a typical Hannity and Colmes show to me.
I think they already have.
Impact probability is now placed at 42:1. Deep-space sensor assets are being mobilized with urgency to characterize this rock with very high precision. Our next chance to do orbital corrections is 2013. We'll know a lot more over the next couple days.
Trying to target a specific spot with the asteroid would likely be a problem many orders of magnitude greater than targeting it in a way to divert it from the earth. imh layman's o.
I'm sure a good physicist could come up with a better analogy than I can.
I'm just praying that the pieces of the USA left will be significant enough to acclaim the Lordship of Jesus Christ with some umph.
Have hoped and prayed folks were paying better attention than seemed to be the case.
Nevertheless, I still believe that London will be virtually destroyed by such and/or a BIG quake. I think the asteroid is more likely for some reason. No big revelation, just a conviction.
This site has updated odds each day:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
This isn't a large asteroid and the effects of an impact will be localized. Been looking at some asteroid tsunami info and it appears even the effects of an ocean impact would be pretty limited.
Of course, previously on FR you've proven impervious to actual valid scienfitic info in regards to your apocalyptikook fantasies, and I don't hold out much hope that will ever change.
Wasn't at all talking about the asteroid breaking up the USA.
I've noticed that all manner of historical proof of prophetic fulfillment scratches your awareness or cognitions not at all in any detectably useful way.
I suppose building events will catch you utterly by surprise given your level of unawareness. At least you won't be able to claim honestly that you weren't forewarned.
.
Size estimate on this asteroid is 380 meters.
Can't even begin to estimate where on the earth it would hit if you still only have a 1 in 45 % chance of it hitting the earth at all.
But this asteroid would not have catastrophic world wide effects. If it hit the earth, 70% chance it hits the ocean, and while there is a tsunami threat it may not be that big of a tsunami threat. The chance it hits the US out of the remaining 30% chance is pretty tiny.
Would you be kind enough to tell me when the proper time is to pin a target on my ex wife's butt?
Thanks.
Do you think that the pioneer effect(if real) could cause a significant miscalculation.
You read Lucifers Hammer eh?
Especially if it calves into 30 pieces. Big fracas, no real damage, excluding small islands, if hit.
It's only 400 meters, no where near "life as we know it" size unless we're counting that as the economic disruption from falling on a major world commerce center...
Of course, it's "life as we know it" if it falls on any of us as individuals too though!
I'll be 70 then, if I am around at all. Somebody be sure and ping me in 2028 if this thing is gonna hit so I can start getting my house in order.
I did a Google and found an interesting web site with an abstract of an AAS presentation by two researchers, one from JPL and the other from Los Alamos. This quote kinda puts a damper on the subject, at first glance:
In the absence of any physical theory that predicts such an acceleration, the primary candidate remains systematic error generated by spacecraft systems.
But then they turn around and say:
However, neither we nor anyone else has been able to find a viable spacecraft systematic that is both large enough and constant enough to explain the anomaly.
Which flips it right back to looking like a possibility.
OK. So what's the significance to the discussion of near Earth or Earth impacting objects? Well, that appears to be part of the paper, too:
We show that the Pioneer anomaly, interpreted as a physical effect external to the spacecraft, can have profound implications for LP comet orbits.
<snip>
In addition, it eliminates all hyperbolic orbits. The Oort cloud becomes a narrow shell of comets at about 2500 AU with a thickness of about 400 AU.
<snip>
In these models, comets entering the solar system on interstellar orbits become nearly parabolic on their first pass, as observed, and then undergo further evolution by drag and planetary perturbations. Large effects on short period comets such as Halley and Encke are avoided by assuming a hole in the resisting medium inside 10 or 20 AU, consistent with limited Pioneer data analysis in this region.
I'm going to continue to Google to see if I can find more. But it's an interesting question.
"1.6e+03 MT". OK, I'm a little rusty on math and nuclear weaponry, but isn't that 1,600 megatons? I don't think the biggest H bomb we have can do better than 100 MT. Sounds worrisome to me....
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