Conference Board: LEI up 0.2% vs forecast 0.1% (Leading Economic Indicators)(Merry Christmas!)

CBS MarketWatch.com ^ | 12/20/04 | Corbett B. Daly

[SierraWasp]

10:00am 12/20/04

Conference Board: LEI up 0.2% vs forecast 0.1%

By Corbett B. Daly

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose for the first time in six months, the Conference Board said Monday. The 0.2 percent increase was slightly faster than expected. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had predicted the LEI would rise 0.1 percent in the month. "Although the LEI has declined for nearly half the year, the declines were relatively modest," said Ken Goldstein, economist for the Conference Board. "Even if economic performance early in 2005 proves sluggish, conditions could brighten by spring," Goldstein added. The coincident index rose 0.1 percent in November.

[SierraWasp]

Double the prediction, yet they say "The 0.2 percent increase was slightly faster than expected."

Well Hey! Don't get too excited during a Bush Presidency, fellas & gals!!!

[SierraWasp]

A HO HO HO PING! God rest ye merry gentlemen!!! Merry Christmas!!!

[Grampa Dave]

Makes one wonder for a milli second, what political party the gloomer and doomer, Corbett B. Daly, who wrote this whine, belongs to?

[wayoverontheright]

For the left, this simply can't be happening. The tax cuts were supposed to HARM the economy, didn't John Kerry say that this was the worst economy since Hoover? How can this be?

More salt in the wound...the market is up 64 points!

[KevinDavis]

I'm sure some freepers will still find something to complain..

[SierraWasp]

But only for a mili van nilly second!!!

[SierraWasp]

"More salt in the wound..."

The more salt, the better, as far as I'm concerned!!!

[SierraWasp]

Well... Ya cain't have too mucha that "Rah, Rah" stuff on here, ya know! All the cynics hafta come runnin in, tryin ta act all sophisticated with sophistry, don'tcha know?

[Moonman62]

The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose for the first time in six months,

It's difficult for the LEI to go up when the Fed is raising rates.

[SierraWasp]

No kidding!!!

I, along with many others, have been very surprised that the bond markets didn't collapse their bubbles. I guess the gradual and consistent reaction of the fed has helped avoid any sudden over-reaction, so far.

[Grampa Dave]

The constant hate FR GW crowd will find something to whine about. Of course many of those are now suffering from Rummy Phobia.

Where are all of the FR disaster predictors who predicted a crash in the Dow and other American Markets before and right after the election?

[KevinDavis]

They are still predicting the housing bubble that is going to come...

[Grampa Dave]

"It's difficult for the LEI to go up when the Fed is raising rates."

Add to that the prices of gasoline the previous 5 months before the election. That is like a tax increase and add that to the interest rate increases you highlighted, it would be doubly difficult for the LEI to increase.

However, in the wine counties of Northern California regular gas prices dropped to $1.85 per gallon for the so called generic. This morning many of the higher price brands were selling their regular for $1.95 or a little lower.

That is not really normal for gas prices to drop the week before Christmas with all of the Christmas driving we do.

[Grampa Dave]

DemonicRat response to this good news for working, saving and investing Americans.

[SierraWasp]

Would you believe... I paid $1.79/gal 87 octane at Sam's Club in Folsom, yesterday???

Maybe it'll drop to $1.49 by year end, then $1.24 by February... Who knows???

[Grampa Dave]

That is good news. I think that regular unleaded at $1.80/gallon will be a normal sighting by the end of the year or the first week or so in January.

[SierraWasp]

Why... That looks like a buncha sour grapes, ta me!!!

[RockinRight]

It's been in the mid 1.60s around here.

[Grampa Dave]

We got as high as $2.25 to $2.50 in the N. California area in October.

[gipper81]

LEI is an unreliable index and is not used for serious market analysis or forecasting.