Russia & Europe, Demography and Growth Rate analysis

various ^ | today | self & threads

[eluminate]

I am not an optimist but this seems way too pessimistic even for me:

"Muslims, China to Carve Russia?

It is calculated that Russia, already in a terminal population crisis, will, by 2050, be driven out of Central Asia by Islamic invaders and lose huge slices of its Far East to China, 15 times as populous. That would push Russia back over the Urals to its European borders and fulfill Putin’s warning of "a threat to the survival of the nation.”

Demographers have calculated that by the end of this century, the British people will be a minority in their homeland. With fertility rates down in England and Wales and ethnic minorities constituting 40 percent of London’s population, U.K. whites will soon be in the minority.

The trend is seen in Japan, the first Asian nation to enter the modern era. Of the 190 nations on earth, Japan is the oldest, with a median age of 41. Politicians there have begged women to have babies."

Plz take a look at some of the articles I have in my first reply and if you could find some different and more up to date information (hopefully from the country you are talking about) Most of the things I found were general gloom and doom articles without local knowledge or analysis. There were several developments I m hoping that will dampen the birth rate "crisis" one the Duma either did or is going to stop providing free abortions as it was the custom. The 2.25 to 3.2 abortions per 1 birth are really staggering things in my view. If even a 10th of those abortion gave birth instead of had it done the birth rate would have been positive. If you use the 1.87 birth rate given by the rand study.

Please give your impressions comments links and opinions.

[eluminate]

http://www.rand.org/publications/CF/CF124/

http://www.km.ru/education/ref_show.asp?id=A99D2130ABC74CB1B92A41B090783E47

http://www.cia.gov/nic/confreports_rusfuturedev.html#ft2

http://www.fas.org/irp/nic/russia.html

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/1/7/192942.shtml

most of the articles that i got tidbits from.

[Travis McGee]

Will the last European die of old age in a zoo, or roasting over a spit?

[eagle11]

I suspect ethnic wars, eugenics and other genetic technologies will change these trends. Whether this is good or bad news for our grandchildren....

[Cronos]

There WILL be a war between India, China and theIslamic superstates of Shia Iran and Sunni Arabia-Pakistan-Indonesia. It may be a 4 way war or there may be camps formed, but there will BE a war.

[eluminate]

i doubt the cloning centers will begin producing europeans. I cant imagine something like: Brunhilda preparing twelve hundred new germans to replace the onces who died to hatch out the munich hatchery.

[Torie]

Whites are currently 92% of the UK population, so the projection posted strikes me as nonesense, particularly since the fertility of the non white immigrants tends to fall with time, and there has been a clampdown on the influx. The idea that Muslims breed like rabbits everywhere is itself nonesense. They don't - they just do in a few places actually, like Palestine and Saudi Arabia. The rate has fallen to close to replacement level in Tunisia and Indonesia, to name just two Muslim nations. It is also way down in Eqypt.

[eluminate]

i agree with you torie what upsets me is that these analysts take .02% increase and compound it at a 50 year clip. I hope russia gets to 2.01 b per 1k so that it stops being that bleak.

[eagle11]

I think that Iran will be more "moderate" and "democratic" in 2-3 years, though. That will change their foreign strategy: a secular revival may rekindle interest in a "Greater Aryanistan" of sorts.

Java and the Indus Valley are the two largest concentrations of Muslims in these emerging superstates. They would make easy targets for biological or advanced radiation weapons...

Eugenics will be back "in vogue" in advanced countries, and we may see a war between "super races" by the century's end...

[eagle11]

I can imagine that. When European peoples finally realize they are going extinct, they will use technology to reproduce...where there's a will, there's a way. I'm in no mood for moralizing about this topic.

[broadsword]

Will the last European die of old age in a zoo, or roasting over a spit?

A quick throat slitting for refusing to drop down on a filthy prayer rug and worship the meteorite.

[Travis McGee]

We'll get to test this question first:

Will Abdul pray, to a glowing crater?

[broadsword]

Might be more interesting to crop dust the Kabbah with plutonium and watch their sweet little hearts melt with fervor on their next hadjj.

8o)

[Travis McGee]

I'm hoping for an Islamic reformation, but I'm not optimistic. Those insane murder cultists will just keep pushing and pushing until they "get voted off the island."

[broadsword]

I'm hoping for an Islamic reformation, but I'm not optimistic.

What you hope for is impossible, my friend. The "holy" Koran is the source of all the violence, slavery, oppression, murder, mayhem, misogyny and terror. And any criticism or questioning of the "holy" Koran carries an automatic death sentence. Same with Mohamed. Some months back, a Pakistani doctor answered a medical student's question of whether or not Mohamed had pubic hair. He was given a death sentence for suggesting that Mohamed might have had pubic hair since he was a fully grown man. And Pakistan is one of the "good" and "moderate" Islamic states.

Does this sound like there is room for honest discussion, self-examination and reform in the Muslim world? I don't think so.

There will be no reform, just a continuation of this slow fight to the death, both at home and abroad. We cannot afford to get soft this time.

[MarMema]

They were beaten back last time. They will lose this time too.

A survivor of the Moscow theatre seige said "They have no future. We do." I think this is true.

[MarMema]

A 10 or 12 year old child in the Beslan school was chosen because of the cross around his neck. The terrorist aimed his gun at the child and said "Pray!".

The child said to the terrorist, "Christ is Risen" and escaped out a nearby window, unharmed.

This child, Sasha, shows us the way to be hopeful.

[Rockingham]

The trend of demographic decline is so general among developed nations and so well-established that it cannot be denied and has some grim strategic and economic consequences. There are important variations though from one country to another, and Russia gets hit the hardest.

Russia is suffering from severe public health problems due to HIV, tuberculosis, and pollution on a scale unimaginable in the West. These effects will not be remedied even if tax and income policies are changed so as to be more supportive of childrearing. Such reforms would likely help in the West. perhaps enough to stabilize populations. In the US especially, I suspect that impending tax and pension reforms and ongoing cultural and technological changes may in a decade or so make larger families and the stay at home mom trendy and more affordable.

[thombo]

The projection rate sounds like nonsense to me as well. I question these doom and gloom statistics. As i recall, 20 or so years ago the fear was overpopulation. A lot can happen(w/in next couple of generations) ie wars,famine,plagues,... China,Africa,India are esp. vulnerable. As far as muslim immigration to western Europe is concerned, i think we'll see some big changes in immigration policy and attitudes.The Netherlands is a good example. Security needs will take priority over cheap labor.

[Savage Beast]

If the Europeans (including the Russians) had functioning brains, they would re-establish a solid Western Alliance and halt Muslim immigration. Evidently, they lack the will to survive.

[Grzegorz 246]

"Demographers have calculated that by the end of this century, the British people will be a minority in their homeland."

I don't agree. This is result of assumptions that Muslims and other minorities will reproduce themselves in the future as fast as nowadays. In my opinion in 20-30 years borne rates among them will not be much higher than among white Europeans.