Posted on 12/14/2004 4:56:43 PM PST by Politicalities
This is a followup to yesterday's thread.
8 more counties reported today, bringing the total to 32 of 39. Gregoire's picked up 148 votes while Rossi's picked up 248, a net gain of +60.
The bad news is that the margin of remaining Gregoire votes over remaining Rossi votes has increased. 1,006,586 Gregoire votes remain to be counted, while only 878,072 Rossi votes remain.
But there's good news, too. Rossi did quite well today, and closed the "achievement gap" in the number of extra votes per tabulated vote by a good amount. Yesterday, Gregoire was getting an 0.0621% rate of added votes while Rossi was getting 0.0598%. As of today, Gregoire's rate is 0.05034% and Rossi's is 0.05021%.
Bottom line? In the ballots remaining to be counted, Gregoire can expect to pick up 507 votes, Rossi can expect 441. Adding in the current gains brings it to +691 Gregoire, +689 Rossi, which means it ends up in a +40 victory for Rossi.
Unfortunately, this doesn't consider the effect of the King County absentees, which may or may not be counted.
When is this count supposed to be complete?
Dec 23
Other than party affiliation, what the difference between the two candidates?
And if Rossi is still the winner by then when will the next recount begin?
Well, Rossi's first name is Dino. You gotta have a Governor Dino. It's like an unwritten law or something.
And if Rossi is still the winner by then when will the next recount begin?
Never. This is the one and only candidate-requested recount allowed by law.
I've posted in these threads like a zillion times about why I don't blame Gregoire for seeking this recount, then I got tired of repeating myself and just stuck it on my blog here. Go there if you care.
I doubt the "mystery" King ballots will be allowed. The Democrats wanted to canvass ALL the votes in their principal stronghold. The WA State Supreme Court said NO. I'm feeling a lot better about our chances. The Democrats just can't take a loss as an answer and move on.
Just so you know, you're driving me nuts with all this back and forth news! ;-)
Is that the newest democrat math?
No, that's a typo. Gregoire's picked up 184, not 148. The net gain is 64, I have no idea where the hell I got +60 from. Oops.
Curmudgeon, I feel your pain :)
The Democrat laden counties need to know how many votes they need to win. It's not fair to ask them to recount until they know how many they need.
isn't the bad news ... that in King county ... they are going to be counted 561 more absentee ballots ... that weren't included previously
Yes. Gregoire was an extremely bad Dem candidate. She made a number of seemingly inexplicable screwups.
For one thing, she was barely visible. Didn't campaign much. Probably figured she had the thing in the bag.
Also, she's been the state attorney general for years, and she's always been Christine Gregoire. When running for governor, she decided to start going by Chris Gregoire. Why the hell do that? She had brand recognition. People knew her name. When they heard the new one, they had to wonder why she changed it. It was confusing.
Rossi was fortunate to have her for an opponent.
That is my impression, too, that she is extremely "bad" in her past record. My sister-in-law in Seattle who is VERY liberal voted for Rossi. She feels that Gregoire is corrupt. I don't think she's voted for a Republican before!
WA State hasn't elected a Republican Governor for 20 years and the State went big for Kerry. Apparently many Kerry voters just could not stomach Grigoire since as you know they usally pull for the "D" down the ballot. Not this time.
I don't understand why this is bad news. It seems like good news to me. If you recount a Gregoire vote two things can happen: It can stay a Gregoire vote or it can become a not-Gregoire vote. Likewise Rossi votes. Rossi can only pick up votes from the pool of Gregoire votes. The bigger the pool the better.
What is wrong with my logic here?
The Democrats fought to have the law ignored and they lost. If they can't fix an election - what can they do? If they're smart, they'll call for a January state-wide revote.
Good point, I am wondering the same thing myself.
What is wrong with my logic here?
Here's the problem.
Yes, if you recount a Gregoire vote, it can stay a Gregoire vote or become a not-Gregoire vote, that's true. But if you recount a hundred thousand Gregoire votes, they might turn into 100,503 Gregoire votes... which is in fact what's happened so far. Meanwhile, 100,000 Rossi votes have turned into 100,502 Rossi votes.
My model is based on the assumption that each candidate will gain votes at the same rate he's gained them in the past during the manual recount. It's a reasonable assumption, I think. In most recounts, candidates gain votes proportionate to their election-day totals. But if my assumption is not true my conclusions aren't valid.
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