Posted on 12/11/2004 8:57:28 PM PST by Dr. Marten
Chen's Taiwan Poll Loss Seen Easing China Strains
Dec 11, 10:54 PM (ET)
Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party supporters celebrate in front of party headquarters in Taipei... Full Image
By Alice Hung and Tiffany Wu
TAIPEI (Reuters) - The pro-independence party of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian suffered a surprise defeat in weekend legislative elections that could ease tensions with China but paralyze government on the democratic island.
Without a clear mandate in parliament, Chen will find it hard to push through his plan to write a new constitution and thus enshrine his ambitions to transform the status of the island that China's claims as a renegade province.
"Taiwan voters have clearly chosen to put the brakes on the pan-green camp," the China Times said in a Sunday editorial, referring to the color of Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
"Rather than saying most voters voted for pan-blue, we should say they opted to maintain stability," it said. The opposition Nationalists, or Kuomintang, fought the election under a blue flag and on a manifesto more conciliatory toward Beijing.
The party of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek that fled the mainland in 1949 and remains committed to some form of reunification emerged the biggest winner, taking 79 seats, up from 68 in 2001. Overall, the opposition alliance took 114 of the 225 seats.
The DPP remained the single largest party but gained only two seats for a total of 89. Along with its hardline pro-independence ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, they control just 101 seats.
Any form of French-style cohabitation between the two groups was unlikely because they have long been bitterly opposed and their leaders are barely on speaking terms. The deadlock is likely to frustrate Chen's political aims, and slow the drive to independence.
"China and the United States will be breathing a sigh of temporary relief," said Zhu Feng, head of the international security program at Peking University.
"The results of the election show that most people in Taiwan want the status quo," Zhu said.
Analysts in Taiwan agreed that the increasingly strident tone of pro-independence parties toward the end of the election campaign may have scared voters who only in March had re-elected Chen as president -- if only by the slimmest of margins.
PEACE AT HOME?
Chen was swift to try to make peace with his opponents.
"The end of the election should be the beginning of reconciliation and cooperation," Chen said late on Saturday as the extent of the opposition victory became clear.
"Let us unite Taiwan, stabilize ties across the Taiwan Strait and work together for economic prosperity."
The two sides may be set on a collision course. Triumphant Nationalist leader Lien Chan at once called on Chen to name an opposition member as premier -- a proposal Chen has rejected.
"We urge Mr Chen Shui-bian to respect the new will of the people," Lien said.
The Nationalists, who fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war in China to the communists, favor closer ties with the mainland and have used their legislative majority in the past four years to block many of Chen's policy initiatives.
For example, they has blocked a proposed $18 billion special budget to buy advanced defensive weapons from the United States, saying the deal was overpriced.
This election had been viewed as a vote of confidence on Chen's push for a separate Taiwan identity, and his party's failure to boost its seats by any significant margin underlines a caution among voters over provoking China, analysts said.
Beijing has positioned 600 missiles across from one of Asia's newest and most vibrant democracies and says it will attack if the island declares statehood. Security analysts view the Taiwan Strait as one of Asia's most dangerous hotspots.
Chen has promised not to hold a referendum on the explosive issue of Taiwan independence but is assertive about the island's sovereignty and is determined to write a new constitution.
This plan suffers a setback with the opposition victory since two-thirds of lawmakers must approve constitutional changes.
Chen has also campaigned to de-Sinify Taiwan politically and culturally, with proposals that China says are separatist moves.
"We'll make every effort to realize all the promises made by A-Bian and the DPP to the people," Chen told supporters late on Saturday, referring to himself by his popular nickname. (Additional reporting by Benjamin Kang Lim in BEIJING)
Darn. I was really hoping that the Pan Green alliance would win this. At stake in this election was the fate of its entire armed forces and even soverieignty. I still hope that Chen gets the weapons budget passed at least. Taiwan is its own country and China needs to keep its dirty hands off.
Joker. Actually aI am surprised at the KMT's loss of power.
Well If Taiwan declared Independence,it would lead to a potential bloodbath for all players,including Taiwan,China & even the US.That's why Bush hasn't really been to happy with Chen's plans.
From todays "Taiwan News":
PAN-BLUES RETAIN MAJORITY-After upset defeat in legislative elections, President Chen calls for 'cooperation and stability' with opposition parties.
CSB lost a lot of face in this election. Its going to be a long road for him. Taipei Mayor Ma is gaining strength for the next Presidential election and he's KMT.
What was that?
the silver lining for the dpp is that lien might get so confident he decides to run again next time.
Despite what was published concerning the sub incursion into Japanese waters, some very reputable sources are saying they made revolutions to let their presence be known only after heading back out and while close to international waters. It was a very direct warning.
There's too much going on in the ways of the 'old diplomacy.' I think this very taunt string holding together what we're calling peace has dam near reached its elastic limit.
Even though the PRC military is still no match for the USs, conventional or nuclear.
The famed 'middle kingdom', the leave us alone kingdom, in the 21st century instead are international belligerents. They have to imagine that unlike Saddam with his avarice for Kuwait that the US will not support Taiwan for fear of Chicom manpower and nuclear weaponry. Remember The Korean War, they'll say, and how the US/UN cut and run in the face of the Chicom threat.
China will talk with KMT in 2008 after KMT takes over the power. DPP will not win next time.
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