Posted on 12/06/2004 1:36:44 PM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection
Yes, we realize the election was more than a month ago, but here's a new analysis worth noting because of its major implications for future elections: Young Jews are fleeing the Democrat ghetto.
Just as Latinos are escaping the Democrat barrio and blacks have begun to run from the Democrat plantation, Terry McAuliffe and company have a new migraine to cope with.
"Several key demographic trends favored President Bush and foretell of possible future Republican success in Florida. President Bush defeated Senator Kerry with voters 18-24 years of age (3% to .5%), 25-40 year olds (12%-8%) and won the gender gap by defeating Senator Kerry soundly with male voters (+13%) and losing the female vote by 5%," Artemis Strategies announced today, citing a poll of 600 Jewish voters in central and south Florida by Michael Cohen, vice president of Fabrizio, McLaughlin.
The survey estimates that:
Bush gained 7 percent more Jewish votes in Florida in 2004 than in 2000.
He crushed Sen. John Kerry among those who cited terrorism, national security or Israel as top concerns.
He won 27 percent of Jewish Democrats in Florida, whereas Kerry took only 4 percent of Jewish Republicans.
Sweet. It was only a matter of time--the Jews are realizing they have more to fear from Islamicfascists and their Democratic apologists than they do from right wing Christians. I predict more and more Jews will vote Republican in the future.
This is nice to see. I also read that 75 percent of Catholics who attended weekly mass voted for W.
Young Jews may be voting republican but the overall trend of Jewish voters for the past 100 years has been no trend at all....Ike got 45 % (a high) after WWII.
Now if anyone can explain this it would be illuminating for many folks.
For those intrested in the facts, go to the "Jewish Virtual Library" on the internet. They have the records since 1900.
I think Eisenhower was a special case after WWII, due specifically to his role in the war. Judaism was old long before the advent of constitutional democracy in the world, and its collectivist habits are hard to overcome. I am the lone outlaw in my extended liberal Jewish family.
There's no mystery.
Jews vote like other Americans. The more religous they are, the more they have come to vote Republican in recent elections.
The trick is that secular Jews who vote conservative quickly disappear as identifiable Jews, so eventually don't get counted among Jews at all. Liberalism has become the Jewish religion, and the distinguishing characteristic of a Jew outside of orthodox circles.
Great headline!
His greatest attribute.
Well, welcome anyway. It takes time to realize the there is no freedom in socialism.
Limbacher needs to learn how to write coherently. Also, the exit polls showed Bush getting 20% of the Jewish vote in Florida, so if this poll shows Bush getting 96% of the Jewish GOP vote and 27% of the Dem Jewish vote (maybe collectively totalling about 40% of the Jewish vote, somebody is wrong.
Very true. BTTT.
Duh! The exit polls are wrong.
My point being, many Jews are still deep in bondage to the Democratic spin machine.
Pray for W and Our Troops
True--but as the anti-semitic left creeps farther and farther out of the closet, left wing jews will either leave the party or their religion behind. And leaving their religion behind won't save them--it didn't save converted jews from the Nazis (who didn't care if someone named Stein converted to Catholicism, she was born jewish and hence she died for it)--and it won't save them from the islamofascists, who have the unwavering support of the left. As I told my sister, a liberal Vassar professor of French who ignores our mother's jewish heritage--it is the night before Krystalnacht again. Will you stand or fall?
Not to worry, there are still PLENTY of 'useful idiots' that are so caught up in self-hatred and hatred of W and Republicans in general - that the Dim party in Massachusetts will remain in power for a long time. It will be the Israelis that suffer.
Well, thats very nice, but why do the vast majority of Jews vote demo...not just now, but for the last century?....We are talking 100 years!!!! And there is no trend to vote Repulican... if you look back over the past five elections.
There has only been a trend to young Jews becoming more religious in the last 30 years or so. Secularized Jews don't have children, religious Jews do.
And you completely missed the point about Jews assimilating and failing to be identified as Jews.
No.
You avoided reality.
The vast majority of Jews have not voted for Republicans for the past 100 years. That is simply a fact.
The supporting history is clear and the Jewish media has provided it.....
By the way, there is no shame that the great majority of Jews vote left. People can vote as they like.
http://www.thejewishpress.com/news_article.asp?article=4411
The Jewish Vote: Don`t Believe Those Exit Polls
Posted 11/24/2004
By JOSEPH SCHICK
The election day exit poll results have been reported as factual throughout the general and Jewish media. If they are to be believed, President Bush received no more than 25 percent of the Jewish vote.
It is reasonable to be concerned that in light of these polls, President Bush will be less supportive of Israel in his second term, concluding that former secretary of state James Baker was right when he used a vulgarity in dismissing Jewish interests relating to Israel because "they don`t vote for us anyway."
But while John Kerry captured a large majority of the Jewish vote, there is evidence that the exit polls have underestimated Jewish support for Bush.
In the 2000 election, the exit polls predicted victory for Al Gore. This year, they projected that Kerry would win the popular vote and both Ohio and Florida. Obviously, these polls are very flawed.
The exit polls got the election results wrong in a very large sample of thousands of voters. In the case of the Jewish vote, the exit polls sample a tiny number of people who happen to be Jewish. Almost none of these polls specifically poll only Jews and as a result, the number of Jews polled is so small as to be statistically meaningless.
As an example, CNN`s exit poll is based on a fairly large overall nationwide sample of 13,660 voters. Of these 13,660, only 3 percent, or 410 people in all 50 states, are Jewish. According to CNN, 25 percent of these 410 Jews, or 102 people, voted for Bush.
Relying on a nationwide sample of 410 Jews is unreliable enough. To take a sample of 410 Jews and proclaim that who these 410 voted for means anything is absurd — especially since these 410 people just happened to be Jewish. Again, CNN did not specifically conduct a poll of Jews. It conducted a poll of American voters, 3 percent of whom told the pollsters they were Jewish.
When the focus is on specific states, the extent of the exit polls` unreliability becomes even clearer.
In New York, where 6,868,000 people voted, CNN`s exit poll concluded that 8 percent of voters, or 549,000 people, were Jewish. CNN`s exit poll claims that only 18 percent of Jews — or 98,900 Jews — voted for Bush in all of New York State.
The CNN exit poll came to this conclusion after questioning 1,452 people in all of New York State. Eight percent of these 1,452 people were Jewish. This comes to a grand total of 116 Jews questioned by the CNN poll, of whom 21 voted for Bush.
Taking seriously a poll of 116 people is silly. Nobody knows what areas within the state these 116 people were from. CNN`s poll did not reach all or even many New York State voting stations, and there is no reason to think that CNN polled in any of the Orthodox neighborhoods.
In New Jersey, CNN`s exit poll queried 1,520 people, 7 percent (or 106) of whom were Jewish. Of those 106 Jews, 24 percent voted for Bush. There are quite a few observant Jews in New Jersey, but considering that only 106 Jews were questioned in the entire state, it`s doubtful that the CNN poll ever made it to any of their neighborhoods.
The actual vote in several New York and New Jersey counties is revealing. For example, Bush won a majority in Rockland County, with more than 60,000 voters — 12,000 more than four years ago, when Al Gore prevailed there by 17 points. Not coincidentally, Rockland County includes Monsey and Spring Valley. But it is likely that CNN`s poll did not question even one voter in those areas.
The Bergen Record reported that "election results from Bergen County show a striking change in the voting patterns within Orthodox neighborhoods. In the district near the Englewood synagogue [of Congregation Ahavath Torah, led by Rabbi Shmuel Goldin], about 45 percent of voters went for Bush, as opposed to 21 percent in 2000. A similar shift occurred in heavily Orthodox neighborhoods in Teaneck, including one where Bush captured 62 percent of the vote after garnering just 14 percent in 2000."
The Orthodox shift toward Bush in Bergen County was a major contributor to Bush`s garnering 26,000 more votes there than in 2000 and closing the gap from 14 points to 4 points.
Similarly, Ocean County went for Bush by a 60-39 percent margin, after Gore won a majority in 2000. The town of Lakewood is located in Ocean County.
Various estimates suggest that approximately 60 to 70 percent of Orthodox Jews voted for Bush. Perhaps even stronger than Orthodox Jews in their support for Bush were Russian Jewish voters. An American Jewish Committee election day survey showed that 75 percent of Russian Jews in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania voted for Bush.
Russian Jews represent a not insignificant percentage of the Jewish population in the Northeast, and most are non-Orthodox. While together the Orthodox and the Russians still amount to a minority of the overall Jewish electorate, both groups live in a relatively small number of neighborhoods and were likely disproportionately missed by the pollsters.
In a sample of just a few hundred people, which to begin with is statistically inconsequential, failing to adequately poll the observant and the Russians would result in a significant error in the poll estimates. It is likely that the exit polls are off by five points or more.
To the extent that there is media coverage of how Jews vote in the presidential election, in the future there should be election day polls taken specifically of Jewish voters. One pollster, Frank Luntz, conducted such a poll this year on a limited scale, in Ohio and Florida only. While polls of Jews would contain flaws, they would be an improvement from tallies based upon exit polls of 13,660 Americans — 13,250 of whom are not Jewish.
Joseph Schick is an attorney. He writes at www.jschick.blogspot.com and can be e-mailed at josephschick@hotmail.com.
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