With or without Codey, Corzine set to enter race for [NJ] Governor

December 1 - When Jon S. Corzine steps before the cameras in Newark on Thursday afternoon, he’s expected to announce the formation of an exploratory committee for next year’s governor’s race -- a pro forma move tantamount to a declaration of candidacy and an effort to re-establish the sense of inevitability that surrounded his gubernatorial aspirations this past summer.

Corzine began calling key Democratic officials and party leaders before Thanksgiving, telling them that he planned to make his announcement sometime this week. Word of the calls leaked to the press, and stories that Corzine was ready to jump in began popping up last week.

But until this afternoon, when the senator’s office issued a vaguely-worded press advisory, the state’s political community was in the dark about the when and where of the announcement. That silence bred rumors -- that Corzine was getting cold feet, that he couldn’t convince key players to join him on stage, that he was hashing out a last-minute deal with Codey, that he was facing unforeseen health or family issues, that his fledgling campaign operation was plagued by disorganization, to name a few.

It’s widely agreed, though, that Corzine had little choice but to join the fray now. The senator is said to be irked -- “absolutely boiling” in the words of one influential state Democrat -- by the glowing press coverage that Acting Governor Richard J. Codey has received and eager to nip in the bud any potential movement of Democrats to Codey as a gubernatorial candidate. But Codey wants to string out his honeymoon as long as possible. His allies say he’d like to keep his intentions a secret until the end of January, after he delivers his State of the State address.

If he wants to run for governor, Codey really has no incentive to announce it now, since his subsequent actions as acting governor would likely be viewed by the press through the lens of his political ambitions. He also figures to be in a stronger position in two months, either to run against Corzine or to cut a deal with him. Codey is considered one of the best inside political players in the state, cagey and coy and always looking to keep his options open. Some who know him well believe he will run; some believe he won’t. But most agree that Codey himself probably doesn’t yet know what he will do.

“Dick will string Corzine along and play with his head,” one party fund-raiser commented. In fact, several Democrats say that Codey, through intermediaries, sought this week to convince Corzine to hold off on making his exploratory announcement until the end of January, requests that were apparently accompanied by strong suggestions that Codey would back out an endorse Corzine at that time.

Corzine, though, didn’t bite, apparently regarding the entreaty as a ploy by Codey to buy time. “You’re a fool in this business if you take anything with a wink or a handshake,” noted a Democratic operative. There is considerable speculation about what Codey might seek in any deal with Corzine. The most obvious enticement Corzine could offer would be his Senate seat. But Codey’s friends say he’d be miserable in Washington and would actually prefer the state Senate to the U.S. Senate.

One possibility raised by the Acting Governor’s friends: an appointment of Codey, a sports and horse racing enthusiast, as head of the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority. “In the end, he cuts a deal,” said one legislator. “I’ve known him thirty years. I don’t think it’s in him to (run in a primary).”

But it’s likely that Corzine’s announcement will only intensify the strain between him and Corzine that has developed recently. Indeed, Codey’s camp is said to be frustrated by what they see as Corzine’s effort to rush Codey’s decision. If his poll numbers blossom, Codey would be a formidable contender in a primary. “Look at Jodi Rell (who in July replaced Gov. John Rowland) in Connecticut ,” an aide to a high-ranking Democratic elected official said. “She has an 80 percent approval rating. 80 percent! And she came in under sort of similar circumstances.”

In the Byzantine world of New Jersey politics, success in primaries is often driven by a candidate’s ability to forge alliances with key county party organizations. But such alliances are as elusive to discern as they are ever-shifting. Case in point: the current situation with Codey and Corzine. Regional and county Democratic leaders are said to be reluctant to side-up now. No matter what, Codey controls the most powerful governor’s office in the country for the next thirteen months. Go with Corzine now and Democratic chiefs risk being frozen out in Trenton . But memories are long in politics, and embracing Codey now could cost the chiefs dearly if Corzine wins a four-year term next November.

Codey certainly isn’t making it easy on his party’s big boys -- his camp put out word this week that he’s keeping score of who’s with him and who isn’t. Corzine is apparently taking a more accommodating approach, a luxury he can probably afford. Starting with his self-funded $63 million Senate bid in 2000, he’s spent four years greasing county Democratic organizations with cash.

“Money,” said one fund-raiser. “That factor is always there, because Corzine gave them all so much. That’s why he’s so hard to beat.” “I suspect,” speculated a prominent party member, “he’s lining up a lot of commitments but he’s letting a lot of people who have to survive in this state do what they have to do.”

In fact, the same Democrat added, it probably works to Corzine’s advantage if the party bosses stay in the background for now. “He doesn’t want to be seen as McGreevey with a beard and a lot of money,” the Democrat commented. Even Codey’s allies concede that organizational support would be more crucial to him in a primary than to Corzine, since Corzine’s cash looms as a mitigating factor. A quick scan of the key primary battlegrounds in the state reveals potential for both men to make inroads. It’s not hard to imagine Codey securing support in Essex and Union Counties , two heavily-populated jurisdictions. Essex is Codey’s home base, and Phiipl Thigpen, the county’s Democratic chairman, said today that he has lined up almost every Democratic leader in the county -- with the exception of Newark Mayor Sharpe James -- to support Codey is he runs.

Union is the home of State Sen. Raymond J. Lesniak (D-Elizabeth) and Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), both of whom were instrumental this summer in holding off an effort by some party bosses to force a special election for governor that would have squeezed Codey out of the picture. The presumption is that Corzine would start with Bergen , Hudson , Middlesex, Mercer and Monmouth Counties behind him, along with all of South Jersey. On paper that’s represents a significant leg-up on Codey, but much of the support is conditional.

It’s widely believed that Hudson would back Corzine on the condition that Corzine would appoint Rep. Robert Menendez (D-Hoboken), the county’s de facto Democratic boss, to the U.S. Senate. But Menendez isn’t the only congressman jockeying for that appointment. In Middlesex, there are whispers that Codey is in the process of mending fences with former state Senator John Lynch, a titanic force in county and state politics who served as one of McGreevey’s political god-fathers. Lynch took part in the push for a special election over the summer.

The biggest x-factor, though, is in South Jersey , where Rep. Rob Andrews (D-Haddon Heights) is weighing his options. If Codey and Corzine both run, Andrews may join them, hoping to win a three-way primary with his South Jersey base. In that scenario, Norcross, who is strongly opposed to Codey serving as governor for the next five years, might have a tough time selling rank-and-file Democrats in South Jersey on backing another candidate over one of their own. Andrews supporters say that the first district congressional seat could go to a Norcross protégé, Assemblyman Louis Greenwald (D-Voorhees). “It’s not so much what [Norcross] would gain from having Andrews as governor. It would be the ability he’d then have to really have control of South Jersey and not have to deal with this 800-pound gorilla,” an Andrews ally said. Of course, real people’s voices count in primaries too—sometimes as much as those of party bosses. “The average New Jerseyan is going to be paying close attention to this governor’s race,” a Democratic aide said. “And the average New Jerseyan has a lot of opinions about it…People don’t like what they’ve been reading in the papers. They’re very unhappy with the Democratic Party right now.

There is only one Republican that has won as a conservative in a very Democrat district time and time again,and raised money as a conservative, he is stong on life and has an A+ from the NRA: Paul DiGaetano.
Paul is the man who gave New Jersey its protection against gay marriage. He has been doing while the others have been talking. One other point, Paul DiGaetano is the only Republican candidate to actaully have raised over a million dollars in a cycle! Not even Bret Schundler has done that.
If New Jersey is serious about changing its image as the most corrupt state in America, DiGaetano is the answer Paul Di Gaetano is the one conservative who can actually win!

Say do any of these jokers actually expend any time or thought toward actually doing their present jobs???

or do are they just emessed in never ending head games like a bunch of early 20-some computer gamers.

Hey you voted for these guy NJ.

“He doesn’t want to be seen as McGreevey with a beard and a lot of money,” the Democrat commented."

What a curious thing to say about Corzine, especially since McGreevey's campaign was just *barely* bearded, and even more so since McGreevey won...

No matter, this is yet another state election in which at least one fatcat national Democratic Party donor will get burned; win, lose, or draw.

But there is one other advantage to ~~McGreevey~~ Corzine running: voters can ask him during his campaign if he is going to shoot, ummm, straight with them by telling them who he is going to appoint to the Senate to replace him.

...Even money says that Corzine's deal with NJ's crime bosses puts Torriceli back in Washington.

Gotta luv those Dems and their political machine in Jersey.

Nah -- The Torch is radioactive. He'll never mount a return to electoral or appointive politics. He's increasingly back in the loop lobbyist-wise, though, and under Corzine will grow to be an ever fatter cat. Just proves, The Sopranos ain't all fiction!

MMM...OK. So why did Corzine spend $60 million of his own money only to resign with 2 years left in his term (presuming he wins the Gov race)?

And don't tell me that NY Times' nonsense about it being frustrating to be in the minority Party; he could have flipped Parties and been welcomed with open arms onto various finance committees.

No, for whatever reason, he *can't* flip Parties and now he's going home.

That reeks of behind-the-scenes shenanigans.

First off, love your tagline. No one remembers the havoc wrought by Castro in Africa. Now, as for NJ, Corzine won election to the Senate well before McGreevey resigned. When JC ran for office, he had every reason to figure JM would serve one or two full terms. And he spent his $$$ because that was the surest way of winning the seat. $60M to him isn't what it is to us. He's Trump rich.

Further, he never would've flipped to the GOP because he's a bloody socialist. He's VERY far left. And, after his moribund efforts to rally support for Dem Senate candidates, he realizes that they ain't taking the Senate back anytime soon. So, he's seeking to jump. It's a powerful governorship and he's a shrewd pol.

"Further, he never would've flipped to the GOP because he's a bloody socialist."

OK, but if you'll permit me to offer a counter-example: Bloomberg.

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