Am I thinking right?
If one counts the congressional districts that each candidate wins, couldn't one count each congressman or woman according to the party he represents and add two to each state that each candidate won? In other words take the number of Republican congress persons and add two for each state the presidential candidate won.
Wouldn't that give us the number of electoral votes for each candidate?
I hope this makes sense. I can't explain very well what I'm trying to say.
Frannie
It's reasonably close. There are still plenty of Democrats representing districts that Bush won and some Republicans representing districts Kerry won, but not nearly as there would have been in 2000 before the redistricting. Districts that go strongly for one Presidential candidate or the other simply aren't going to support a Congressional candidate of the opposing party, with only a handful of exceptions, like Scott Matheson of Utah.
It makes sense to some degree, but it doesn't work out that way. To assume it would work out that way assumes completely perfect extension of presidential coattails to each congressional race. Instead, districts will often return their incumbant house representative to congress while voting for the presidential candidate of the other party. Such ballot splitting occurs at the senate level sometimes as well, but is much more common in the house.
Wouldn't that give us the number of electoral votes for each candidate?
Not necessarily. Many voters split their ticket, so they vote, say, Republican for President, but vote for a Democrat for Congress, or they vote Democrat for President then vote for a Specter-type Republican for the House. You'd have to get the breakdown of each district's Presidential vote.
Of course, it ould be intersting to show us how each CD voted for President as opposed to how it voted for Congress.