Here is the skyline:
ping
Got a great book for you, Willie: "The Coming War with Japan," which had all sorts of harum-scarum about how the Japanese economic "miracle" was "overtaking" us and how we were losing all our industry to Japan. Know when it was written? Early 1990s. Know how stupid that book looks now?
China, Russia, and the US will be in a war in this half of the century. The only question is who squares off angainst who.
bttt
Good post.
No matter what you think or believe about China, their
increasing energy needs alone are skyrocketing and you
have to wonder what they are going to do about it.
This was another good article to read. Especially from
someone who was there to see it with his own eyes.
What do we have to fear from a capitalist inspired economy? Capitalism promotes democracy, and China will become more demecratic. Their economy is growing, that is a good thing, not a bad thing. Is China going to invade the US? If China has land ambitions it is probably towards Russia or Japan or Taiwan. And they have co-existed with both Japan and Russia peacefully for the past 50 years. As China becomes more prosperous its citizenry have more money, allowing US companies to sell to them.
What the article said is irrefutable but it doesn't tell everything. Millions upon millions of Chinese are unable to sustain themselves in their villages if they stay there.
The migration to the cities is not only choking the cities but those millions upon millions of peasants will be unemployed.
You will see Russia - where you have billionaire oligarchs side by side with extreme poverty - amplified 100 times. The political reality for China is chaos within ten years.
Ohhh no does this mean that Americans will have to work as hard as there fore fathers did in order to stay competative. . . *gasp*
I'm not quite sure what's scary about competition, free trade, and this article? Although from the long list of companies setting up shop there I see that I not only have to avoid shopping at Wal-mart but I need to stop buying stuff from, Kmart, Sears, Target, GE, Krupps, etc, etc.
Yep had we let Patton take out Russia and McArthur China we would not be in such dire straits
On the other hand...there were those in America that would not stand for such assaults on their commie brothers...
That is why they had to take out Senator Joe...
And why the MSM was able to defeat us in Vietnam as they are trying so hard to do in Iraq
Yet meanwhile...we gave them the Panama Canal build by us for us...and now they have the worlds largest container port and cargo airport in the world just off our coast...
They are making deals with their commie allies Cuba and Venezuela and emerging socialist Brazil
Admiral Thomas Moorer,USN (Ret.) For whom the F-14 'Tom Cat' was named has warned us of China' intentions...in Panama
We did not listen then... we are not listening now
imo
I think this was one of the best points in the article. Islamic terrorism seeks to pull the US economy and civilization down - not so that the mullahs can build a shining city on a hill, but so that they can rule over an impoverished Islamic populace. Screw 'em.
A_R
> what is driving China is the impassioned
> spirit of nationalism and the limitless
> energy of capitalism
It is only apparent capitalism. It is "capitalism" under the central control of a socialist totalitarian state.
Nationalism + Totalitarianism + Centrally controlled "capitalism" =
FASCISM.
But,...........what did I just say???????communism and capitalism together????
That can't work for long! I won't work for long!
It is not working.
Watch this picture and see how it evolves.
Actually, this is exactly what we wanted to happen.
During my 25 years in the Navy, Red China was always our 2nd biggest threat. The red army is very big, but there is no way to get it from china to the U.S., in one piece. After the USSR collapsed, everyone except the military, forgot about China. Bad move. They can still take south Korea, Taiwan and Japan for starters.
RE: These firms are only supposed to be engaged on the civilian side of Chinese development. But that line cannot be drawn, and it is doubtful those marketing their wares in this booming market care.
There are export control laws. Actually enforcing them in full might be sort of interesting (but not for the faint of heart).
An overall comment. The first couple of times I went to the PRC I thought it was really neato and stuff. All the new construction, etc. That was back in the first half of the 1990s, back when I was still (I sheepishly admit) a Transnational Progressive of the GOP-lite stripe. Back then I had, like most of my peers still do, a geopolitical IQ of about 40. Thank GOD for the subsequent miracle, by which I started to learn things they don't teach at Wharton or Columbia - things that are probably considered "bad for market morale." Yes, we are selling Communist Red China the rope which they will use, in concert with their Axis partners, to hang the West.
================================
(from January, 2004)
THE world's business leaders now assembling in Davos for the annual World Economic Forum have currency fluctuations at, or close to the top of, the list of what they are worrying about.
They see the collapse in the dollar's value as having the potential to spread economic pain throughout the world - something President Bush failed to mention in his State of the Union Address on Tuesday.
One aspect of dollar weakness largely overlooked, even in Davos, is how it heightens the risk of an economic crisis in China. Because that country is fixing its exchange rate to slide down with the dollar, it has experienced an effective 40% devaluation against the euro and only a little less against sterling in the past 18 months.
But because the Chinese economy was already running flat out, the stimulus from devaluation could cause it to blow in a way that would be eerily reminiscent of the 1997-98 Asian economic meltdown.
All the economic warning signs are there. According to a December paper from Lombard Street Research, industrial growth was then running at more than 17%, exports were growing at an annual rate of 36%, imports at 30% and broad money in excess of 20% - all this in an economy with a sustainable potential growth rate of 8% a year.
Such indicators show that the economy is running at collision speed, but there is no sign of understanding from anyone in the leadership that the brakes need to be applied.
There are other reasons to think the Chinese boom cannot go on much longer without an enforced pause for breath. The nation is undoubtedly home to most of the worst banks in the world, organisations so riddled with corruption, nepotism and bad debts that they make the Japanese banks look like pillars of economic probity and virtue.
Their dominant purpose is to prop up the legions of businesses that are chronically loss-making, and to protect the interests of the local party politicians and businessmen who dominate them.
This desperate weakness of the banking system is also the main reason the Chinese have become so open to foreign investment.
Chinese banks on their own could never supply the capital needed. The Chinese boom is massively dependent on ever-expanding inflows of foreign money.
At some time in the next few months - or, if we are very lucky, years - most of the foreign investors' money will be lost, just as it was in Asia, and the dollar collapse brings that day nearer.
In the words of those estimable fund managers* Bedlam Asset Management, ‘China is a fundamentally bad equity investment.’
Profits, dividends* and return on capital are not the priorities. The businesses are run for market share, family wealth and political influence.
A major factor behind the Asian collapse was the belated realisation by the investment banking and fund management hot shots that so many of the region's businesses were making a nil return, and had been for years. It is the same in China.
Corporation tax, a proxy for profits, is rising at less than a third the rate of sales. Even allowing for flaky government statistics, this indicates that most Chinese businesses are operating at a loss - and relying on banks to continue to prop them up.
When this is realised, or when investors notice that they are not getting any dividends, the inflow of money will slow and the local banks will have to take the strain. That could be the breaking point.
To give the last word to Bedlam, it is all terribly reminiscent of 19th century America, where there was stunning growth, an immature legal system, poor shareholder protection, overcapacity and weak banks.
(Source: http://www.thisismoney.com/20040122/nm73290.html)
========================
So, what will be the effect of China's economic collapse... besides an international economic collapse when the world's manufacturing market basket implodes?
It is at such times that a country's leadership attempts to distract the populous by engaging in military ventures. Not only do the Chinese Communist Party leaders survive retaliation from the masses, but resources critical to economic health are acquired.
Good post Willie.
A deadly combination if you are a bully. That is what makes China worrisome.
I have recently been to Shanghai and Beijing - I can say that both cities have very bad polution problems. The residents walk around wearing white masks to guard against black lung disease. China does have a booming economy at the price of destroying their environment. QED
---> Chuck
Here is the skyline:
First of all, I don't like William R. Hawkins' writings. I've read his writings before and I find him contemptable. He talks about changes in China that should be seen as positive and phrase them in such a way as being a threat.
The perfect example is what he already stated; the skylines of Shanghai. So what!! Shouldn't a major city in a major country have skylines? Or should China be relegated to being an agricultural nation forever?!
China should be allowed to build their skyscapers, fancy hotels, and factories without it always being seen as a threat.
Also, as far as China's influence surpassing Britain or nullifying Britain's presence in China, once again; so what?! Shouldn't a country of 1.3 billion people that head down the road of economic reform eventually surpass a country (Britain) of only 55 million people in influence, especially in their own country or neighboring countries.
Britain still retains greater influence than most of the 200 or so countries in the world. The average person in Switzerland and Findland have a higher standard of living than Britain, but Britain retains greater influence in the world. That's because Britain is a larger country in terms of population. And many larger countries such as Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, etc., Britain continues to weild tremendously more influence in the world than these countries.
I wish people who are anti-China would quit taking every day improvements that are happening over there as a threat.
I believe I've even seen a thread on this message board about toilets. People posting comments were mocking China's attempt at trying to impove their sanitation conditions. Now there's a real threat to talk about; toilets.