Millions pay for Clinton's vulgar error (So it's Bubba's fault Osama's still alive?)

Atlanta Journal-Constitution ^ | 11.22.04 | Jay Bookman

[mhking]

Watching coverage of last week's dedication of the Clinton presidential library in Little Rock, Ark., I was reminded once again that the Republicans are right.

It really is all Bill Clinton's fault.

And no, I'm not kidding.

One of the favorite debating topics among historians is whether great people change the course of world events, or whether world events create great people. For example, did the civil rights movement create Martin Luther King Jr., or did King's leadership create the civil rights movement?

There is also, however, a little-known third category, in which the course of world history is altered by what amounts to little more than an accident. The best example I can imagine occurred the night of Nov. 15, 1995, when Clinton was confronted in the Oval Office by a young woman bearing pizza, neither of which Clinton could resist. At that moment, I would argue, the course of world events was altered in ways we have only begun to realize.

For example, without that tawdry act of presidential self-indulgence nine years ago, we would not have 140,000 troops in Iraq today, struggling to pacify that brutal country. The more than 1,000 U.S. troops who have died in that fight so far would probably still be alive, many of them still in their civilian lives. The tragic events of Sept. 11 would still have taken place, but the international alliances that we need to combat and defeat international terrorism would today be in much better shape if Monica Lewinsky never had delivered that pizza. We would also have a military option in dealing with challenges in Iran and North Korea that is not available to us today, not with every available soldier already committed to Iraq.

All of that, just because Clinton did too have sex with that woman?

Yes. And the explanation is pretty straightforward.

First, the Monica scandal and subsequent perjury and impeachment tarnished not just Clinton, but everybody else in his administration as well. That included his vice president, Al Gore. Without that scandal, there is no question that Gore would have been elected the 43rd president of the United States. Even with that heavy baggage, he managed to win the popular vote.

Second, while a President Gore would certainly have gone after Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in the wake of Sept. 11, there's no reason to believe that Gore would have used 9/11 as an excuse to launch an unrelated invasion of Iraq. There's not much room for doubt about that either. After all, Gore has been highly critical of the decision to invade Iraq, as have most members of what would have been his foreign policy staff.

All of that, I think, is absolutely certain. From there, if you choose, you can venture still further into probables and further still into possibilities. For example, if Gore had been president, he might have launched a full-scale invasion of Afghanistan instead of holding back manpower and other resources for later use in Iraq, as President Bush did. And if he did that, we might have succeeded in capturing or killing bin Laden.

Of course, none of this what-if history matters anymore. What's done is done. Nor am I trying to add to Clinton's already considerable burden by dumping this mess all on his shoulders. He had no way to foresee the serious consequences of his mistake that night, a mistake that had been made by countless people before him and countless people since. (Clinton did, however, know that he was president, and that he was risking much more than anyone else for his few minutes' gratification.)

It is also true that to get us into Iraq, a lot of other decisions had to be made by a lot of other people since November 1995. While Clinton has made this state of affairs possible; he did not by any means make it inevitable.

Still, it's remarkable to me how so much can be changed so quickly, how a relatively tiny little event can become an unexpected pivot point of world history, permanently altering millions of lives.

That weird thought crosses my mind every time I see Clinton, and I shake my head in wonder.

• Jay Bookman is the deputy editorial page editor. His column appears Mondays and Thursdays.

[loveliberty2]

"That weird thought crosses my mind...."


Memo To: Jay Bookman

When another "weird thought" occurs to you, just keep it to yourself. By so doing, you may avoid letting the rest of the world know how truly ignorant and illogical you are!

[eakole]

At the risk of becoming another target of ridicule, I see much to gain, and nothing to lose, in considering Mr. Jay Bookman's analysis of President Clinton's sexual adventures in the Oval Office. I believe the personal character traits of a President of the United States will have historic consequences in both related and seemingly unrelated areas. President Clinton's selfish sexual indulgences have had, and will continue to have extensive and incalculable aftereffects on the lives of millions of people. It is therefore essential we must always consider the character of the person we choose to lead.

To understand why insignificant and seemingly unrelated events may rise to historic and cataclysmic proportions, we should look, among other things, into the theory of "Chaos."

http://www.pithemovie.com/chaos.html

“Chaos Theory can be generally defined as the study of forever-changing complex systems. Discovered by a meteorologist in 1960, chaos theory contends that complex and unpredictable results will occur in systems that are sensitive to small changes in their initial conditions. The most common example of this, known as the "Butterfly Effect," states that the flapping of a butterfly's wings in China could cause tiny atmospheric changes which over a period of time could effect weather patterns in New York.

“Although chaotic systems appear to be random, they are not. Beneath the random behavior patterns emerge, suggesting, if not always revealing, order. Recognizing that the stock market is a non-linear, dynamic, chaotic system 's Max Cohen (Sean Gullette) applies the principles of Chaos Theory in order to determine the pattern behind apparent random nature of market prices.

“Apart from the stock market, Chaos Theory can be used to model other highly complex systems, including everything from population growth to epidemics to arrhythmic heart palpitations. When applying chaos theory, it is revealed that even something as seemingly random as a dripping faucet has an order behind it.”

[wouldntbprudent]

But I thought a President's private pecadillos didn't matter?

That his personal life was irrelevant to the execution of his duties?

That his character as a man did not influence his ability to lead?

That "just sex" could not possibly be the public's business because the interests of the U.S. and Americans could never be impeded by "just sex"?

So did Klintoon's conduct matter or not? Hmmmm? The author is claiming Bubba's little o'le slipup changed the course of history for the worse. Isn't that what right=thinking Americans feared all along?

[mhking]

Just damn.

If you want on the list, FReepmail me. This IS a high-volume PING list...

[Navy Patriot]

This idiot accidentaly got the right answer.

[Sofa King]

"Second, while a President Gore would certainly have gone after Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in the wake of Sept. 11,"

Kind of like Clinton did after how many embassy bombings?

"For example, if Gore had been president, he might have launched a full-scale invasion of Afghanistan instead of holding back manpower and other resources for later use in Iraq, as President Bush did."

...and pigs might have sprouted wings and flew. There is nothing in Gore's resume that would suggest this course of action. And, if GWB had done this, you would be saying right now that he should have gotten more local support rather than unilaterally invading Afghanistan.

[Sofa King]

Actually, Gore did not win the popular vote: both he and Bush got under 50%. "winning the popular vote" doesn't make much sense unless you have a majority.

[Sofa King]

You didn't miss much.

[lainde]

bttt

[JLO]

"Dude, it's like, if a butterfly had spread its wings in China in 1952, then, like, maybe Ralph Nader would be president right now.

Yeahhh...deep."

===

LOL - that was a GOOD one!