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Costly Troop Deficit in Iraq
NY Times ^ | November 22, 2004

Posted on 11/21/2004 7:22:21 PM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection

The swift and stunning American military sweep through Falluja this month recalls the equally swift and stunning sweep through Baghdad and other Iraqi cities some 20 months ago. Those triumphs quickly turned sour when looting and lawlessness took over the thinly patrolled streets, embittering residents, stalling reconstruction and giving the insurgency a jump-start on the occupation authorities. The sequel needs to be different. That will require a rapid reinforcement of American ground troops in Iraq. About 20,000 to 40,000 more soldiers are needed right away.

As Marine and Army units were completing their drive through Falluja, senior Marine intelligence officers based in the area warned that unless large American forces stayed behind to protect voter registration, reconstruction and the training of future Iraqi police officers, the insurgency could bounce back, expand in numbers and disrupt the elections now scheduled for Jan. 30. Their concerns, reported in The Times by Eric Schmitt and Robert F. Worth, were quickly played down as a "worst-case assessment'' by the Army's intelligence chief in Iraq. Still, military commanders recognize that they need to keep at a minimum several thousand American troops in and around Falluja. Unless those numbers are high enough, what happened last year in Baghdad and other cities could be repeated in Falluja, torpedoing the elections, and with them the only visible hope for Iraqi political revival and American military withdrawal. But those commanders are also under great pressure to move as many of these troops as possible to other cities where the insurgency has recently flared.

One big reason that last year's "mission accomplished'' started to look like "mission impossible'' was that Pentagon planners provided only enough troops to defeat Saddam Hussein's crumbling armies and not enough to provide security for physical and political reconstruction. Large swaths of a country used to strong governance suddenly had no effective governance and insurgent militias surged forth to fill the gap. Over time, the insurgency established bases in Sunni Arab cities like Falluja, where nostalgia for the Sunni-oriented Baathist dictatorship has been greatest and support for the Shiite-led interim government remains virtually nonexistent.

With the insurgents now driven out of Falluja, the city's nearly 's 300,000 inhabitants have begun streaming back into a smoldering ruin. Before the battle, water supplies were contaminated and electricity at best intermittent. Now, uncounted residences and public facilities have been pounded into rubble. It took only 12,000 American soldiers and marines to smash from one end of Falluja to the other. But unless 10,000 to 15,000 remain behind to protect voter registration and the promised reconstruction effort, residents are likely to become even more embittered. The chance for expanded Sunni participation in the election would be lost and the routed insurgents would be almost certain to return, as they have in several other cities after American troops moved on. The Bush administration has still not learned the lesson of Iraq - securing the peace takes more, not fewer, soldiers than winning battles.

American military commanders in Iraq should not have to choose between securing Falluja and driving the insurgents out of other strongholds. Both must be done if the elections are to have any chance of success. That will require sending those 20,000 to 40,000 additional troops right away. Because 20 months of occupation duty have left the Army so badly strained, reinforcement will require even greater reliance on reservists and divisions that have already served in Iraq. These desperate policies cannot continue much longer without a damaging toll on morale, readiness and recruitment.

What is needed is a significant permanent increase in the regular Army, through recruitment, without a draft. But shifting more of the Pentagon's well-padded budget into manpower has few supporters in a Defense Department transfixed with faddish theories of quick war-fighting, outsourced peacekeeping and minimal ground forces. Iraqi civilians without jobs and clean water and American soldiers without relief and a clear strategy for winning the peace have been paying the price for those seductive theories long enough.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: anti8war; iraq
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1 posted on 11/21/2004 7:22:21 PM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection

Nobody would know how to run a war better than the NY Times!

Yes sir-ree!


2 posted on 11/21/2004 7:24:45 PM PST by TitansAFC (Al Gonzales for SCOTUS? Let's just nominate Arlen Specter.)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection

Well, we sure haven't secured Iraq. That seems pretty obvious.


3 posted on 11/21/2004 7:25:00 PM PST by Huck (The day will come when liberals will complain that chess is too violent .)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection

fallujah is not a "smoldering ruin". this article makes it sounds like Dresden. in fact, we were too careful there in using bombing.


4 posted on 11/21/2004 7:25:04 PM PST by oceanview
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
Memo to the New York Slimes:
When George W. Bush needs your input on how to run a war, he'll ask you for it.
Now shut the hell up.
5 posted on 11/21/2004 7:25:09 PM PST by wagglebee (Memo to sKerry: the only think Bush F'ed up was your career)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection

The NYTs continues to put the worst possible face on the heroic efforts of our people to deliver liberty to the people of Iraq.


6 posted on 11/21/2004 7:26:06 PM PST by EternalVigilance (Allah's real name is Lucifer...)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection

Help me here, who was it that was in charge of downsizing our military throughout the 1990's. Oh, yes, now I remember! Why it was the liberal's favorite pervert, Bill Clintoon!


7 posted on 11/21/2004 7:26:22 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (God is not a Republican. But Satan is definitely a Democrat.)
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To: TitansAFC

Funny how McCain was using the same 20,000-40,00 figure in an interview. He's a sailor. He oughtta know.


8 posted on 11/21/2004 7:26:52 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection

Good to know that the New York Times has troop strength requirements all figured out. All they had to do was drop back to their campaign Kerry talking points and there it was: 40,000 additional troops needed right away.


9 posted on 11/21/2004 7:28:01 PM PST by Another Thought
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection

No one at the NYTimes thought enough of this one to sign it.


10 posted on 11/21/2004 7:28:11 PM PST by Anti-Bubba182
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To: Huck

Secured Iraq? What do you expect?

In a strategic sense, it is very much secured. The worst the 'insurgents' can do is murder innocent civilians and an occasional American.

But they certainly can't mount any effort that will lead them to any real power.

Don't buy the NYT's politically motivated spin.


11 posted on 11/21/2004 7:29:35 PM PST by EternalVigilance (Allah's real name is Lucifer...)
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To: dr_who_2


"I thinks we needs more troops in Iraq"
12 posted on 11/21/2004 7:29:41 PM PST by TitansAFC (Al Gonzales for SCOTUS? Let's just nominate Arlen Specter.)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection

"The Bush administration has still not learned the lesson of Iraq - securing the peace takes more, not fewer, soldiers than winning battles."

Don't you just love these liberal armchair quarterbacks?


13 posted on 11/21/2004 7:30:19 PM PST by rj45mis
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To: EternalVigilance

they don't need to achieve power through military victory - all they have to do is make the cost for the US too much to bear.


14 posted on 11/21/2004 7:31:04 PM PST by oceanview
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
You just can't please the NY times...one day they are calling for the troops to come home and the next day they are saying we don't have enough. Schizophrenia at its finest.
15 posted on 11/21/2004 7:31:26 PM PST by Ginifer
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To: Ginifer

Don't forget the blunder of all blunders:

Because of Friedman, they ENDORSED the Iraq war!!!

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL


16 posted on 11/21/2004 7:32:34 PM PST by TitansAFC (Al Gonzales for SCOTUS? Let's just nominate Arlen Specter.)
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To: oceanview

I think we've already demonstrated that we aren't running no matter what they do.


17 posted on 11/21/2004 7:34:36 PM PST by Terpfen (Gore/Sharpton '08: it's Al-right!)
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To: oceanview
they don't need to achieve power through military victory - all they have to do is make the cost for the US too much to bear.

They, the Dems, the media, and the dead-enders in Iraq, already tried that.

Didn't work. The American people saw through their cynical ploy.

18 posted on 11/21/2004 7:35:07 PM PST by EternalVigilance (Allah's real name is Lucifer...)
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To: TitansAFC

Just once I would like one of the talking heads to ask anyone who tosses out a troop increase figure just what force strength study have they seen that would support an increase.


19 posted on 11/21/2004 7:35:29 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
American military commanders in Iraq should not have to choose between securing Falluja and driving the insurgents out of other strongholds.

We didn't go into Fallujah until after the elections because Osama, al-Zarqawi and al-Jazeera were campaigning double-time for Monsieur Kerry. This is analogous to Jefferson Davis campaigning for McClellan against Lincoln during the Civil War. So sit back now and watch War Stories with Ollie North on Fox and enjoy the fireworks.

20 posted on 11/21/2004 7:35:51 PM PST by Calusa (Bush cooked Kerry's Goose!)
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