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Terrorism Summary 12/20/04

I apologize that this summary may seem a bit fuzzy. My recovery from surgery didn’t permit me to be as detailed in following some of the items as I would normally like. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

12/20/04 Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW

1. Attack threat windows
12/20/04 Primary Window: October 29 - December 28, 2004. High concern over possible attack by al-Qaeda within 60 days of 29 Oct. OBL video. This is based upon an historical analysis of previous videos. Concern is also raised with the release of the 11/28/04 Zawahiri video tape.

Godzilla note - An interesting discussion regarding an individual identified as “German Guy” posting from the web site called “Rumormill”. Individual claims to have been a German BND intel guy. However transcripts provided by Freeper Milkncookies quickly indicated that he has a strong anti-Semitic slant to his views (believes 911 & Madrid were works of the Mossad). He has made claims that Houston as well as other cities in the US are to be hit on Dec 27th, and that it will be done by our CIA acting as AQ. Although German Guy sounds a lot like the nefarious ‘Aussie Bloke’, the date is in the current primary window and should be evaluated when the date comes and goes.

Another potential attack window is the Nov 24 - Jan 1 - Thanksgiving / Christmas Holiday season.
12/20/04 Secondary windows: No significant changes
January 20, 2005 - Presidential inauguration
Feb. 6 Super Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla.

2. Attack Indicators

11/23/04 The following post is being maintained for a historical track until Feb 23, 2005 - Godzilla
Threats of a nuclear attack continue to appear on some jihadi forums. I continue to monitor the ACSA "alert" regarding the prediction of a nuclear attack within the next 3 months. The credibility of this chatter and alerts is questionable, however, AQ has repeatedly stated it desires nuclear weapons, and there are concerns being raised again about nuclear material becoming available through either N. Korea, Iran or Pakistan.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

Iraq
12/15/04 AQ is trying once again to get a civil war started between the Sunni and the Shia (Shitte) sects – Godzilla
A bomb exploded at the gate to one of Shia Islam's holiest shrines on Wednesday, killing seven people and wounding 31 others, hospital officials said.

Iran
12/20/04 IRG forces have completed their second major exercise in 6 months in what appears to be an attempt to ward off any preemptive attacks by the US or Israel on their nuclear program.

N. Korea
12/20/04 More recycled reports about the removal of Kim’s paintings from key locations.

Israel
12/15/04 At the beginning of December, Washington warned Jerusalem and Cairo of a planned major al Qaeda attack in one of their cities - possibly even with chemical weapons. In addition, the Americans and the British warned Israel and Egypt to beware of large-scale maritime strikes in the Mediterranean, Gulf of Aqaba, the Red Sea or the Suez Canal. One possible method is the familiar one of suicides aboard speedboats crammed with explosives ramming merchant vessels and oil tankers; but another way could be to hijack vessels and scuttle them in the Suez Canal to block the international waterway.
www.debka.com

Phillipines
12/20/04 Reports that the leader of one of the major terror groups has been killed in an airstrike.

Afghanistan
Counterinsurgency operations by allied forces have netted many killed taliban and leaders. Potentially have captured some high level leaders in the taliban.

Australia / Indonesia
Indonesia has a very high potential for an attack by New Years – Godzilla
12/17/04 Indonesian police said they had found two separate collections of bombs as they imposed a major alert following foreign warnings of an impending terrorist strike.
The discovery came as police were being deployed across Indonesia in a huge security operation after Australia said terrorists may be plotting to strike in the run up to Christmas, specifically naming the Hilton hotel chain.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200412/s1268040.htm

12/15/04 The Australian government warned that it had received specific intelligence suggesting an imminent terrorist attack in Indonesia, possibly targeting a Hilton hotel.

Also at
http://www.cnn.com/aol/story/2004/12/15/cnn_asiapcf_australia.terror.html

Terrorists struck churches in Indonesia on Christmas eve 2000 killing 19, some of the threat indicators in the media suggest a similar timing – Godzilla

Saudi Arabia
12/16/04 Demonstrations were held in various locations in Saudi Arabia organized Al-Islah headed by Saad Al-Faqih. Although they were held, they were substantially smaller than anticipated and Saudi Security was very heavy, expecting significant violence. Later in the day Osama bin Laden bitterly criticized the Saudi regime in an audiotape posted on an Islamic Web site on Thursday. He called for anti monarchy protests in the kingdom.The speaker, in calm and even tones, accused Saudi rulers of "violating God's rules," a common theme of bin Laden, who accuses Saudi rulers of being insufficiently Islamic and too close to the "infidel" United States.
Among other things, the most concerning aspect of this OBL audio is the call to attack the Saudi oil infrastructure as a means to strike against both the ruling family as well as the US.

The demonstrations were largely a flop and another major embarrassment to AQ and OBL who is trying to fix his eyes on the removal of the Saud family from power. The timed audio release was suppose to encourage and inflame his followers and begin a popular uprising some have likened to the overthrow of the Shah of Iran in the 80’s. This failure suggests that OBL may not be in very good touch with the outside world – Godzilla

Kuwait
12/16/04 The U.S. Embassy on Wednesday warned Americans in Kuwait of possible terror attacks and urged them to exercise caution.
In a message e-mailed to American citizens, the embassy said "it has credible information that terrorist groups are developing near-term plans for attacks against unspecified targets in Kuwait."
http://www.wtnh.com/Global/story.asp?S=2696989

Italy
12/15/04 These are the same group that posted NUMEROUS threats last spring/summer. One concerning aspect is that there is that it appears that they are making sure Italy is warned as AQ terrorists have been looked down upon by some imans because of the failure to give proper warning – Godzilla
This is the last warning of the Italian nation (Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades)
As that you get rid of the lacking Berlusconi the efficiency or will burn actual Italian, that it a clear equalization we put it between your hands so that we leave our responsibility, and the one who warns is excused.
via an Internet site.

Netherlands The flashpoint for Euro-Islamic tensions continues to be active - Godzilla
12/15/04 Muslims have borne the brunt of politically-inspired violence as the extreme right in the Netherlands flexed its muscles in retaliation at the murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh in November.
The researchers noted a sudden rise in racist and extreme right-wing violence in the Netherlands in November, the month Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh was shot dead in Amsterdam. A Muslim man, with Dutch and Moroccan nationality, has been arrested for the murder.
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=19&story_id=15088&name=Violence+flares+as+Dutchextreme+right+strengthens

England
12/15/04 All anti-terrorist units have been put on high alert following the theft of 10 large propane gas canisters from a warehouse in Shepherd's Bush in west London. Scotland Yard's senior detectives suspect that the theft could have been masterminded by Al-Qaeda, and terrorists linked to the dreaded outfit could be planning a massive gas bomb blast in London.
A senior detective was quoted saying on Sunday night: "This is a very serious situation. It is enough explosive material to cause large devastation and loss of life." The canisters, each containing 47kg (103lb) of gas, were stolen last weekend.
The theft has the detectives recall that two years ago, Al-Qaeda terrorists had driven a truck loaded with propane gas bottles into a Tunisian synagogue, killing 14 German tourists. They have also tried to use small gas canisters as grenades hidden in children's toys."
http://www.hindustantimes.com/onlineCDA/PFVersion.jsp?article=http://10.81.141.122/news/5983_1150511,00430005.htm

Russia
12/15/04 Russian secret services have helped expose an Al Qaida network in the south of Russia, the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) Nikolai Patrushev said on Wednesday.
"There are about 10 Al Qaida members in the Russian North Caucasus. The FSB plans to neutralize their activity," ITAR-TASS news agency quoted Patrushev as saying. He named the main Al Qaida operation man in the region, Abu Hafs, who succeeded another warlord, Hattab, who was earlier killed by federal troops. He added that another Al Qaida member, Abu Muskhab, had been detained and was giving "very valuable evidence".
During the last year, the FSB has neutralized over 200 gunmen including warlords Abu Al Walid, Ruslan Gelayev and others, Patrushev said. Over 900 gunmen were arrested on suspicion of terrorist activities, and over 20 hostages were freed in Chechnya.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/12/15/russqaida.shtml

United States
12/20/04 Nothing significant to report.

4. Attack method.
12/20/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following types of vehicles:

1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply / tanker trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)

Current alerts out for two stolen fuel/tanker trucks, a stolen crop duster and about a hundred propane tanks. It is uncertain if the thefts are linked to terrorism at this time, however they could be adapted for use in a terrorist attack.

5. Personnel
12/20/04 Nothing new to report.

6. Significant meetings canceled:
12/20/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
12/20/04 NYC is at a locally declared ORANGE where it had been since. 9/11/01.

GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.

8. Military operations.
12/20/04 Carrier Battle Groups
Deployed
CVN-75 Truman 20 Nov 2004 - Relieves Kennedy
CVN-72 Lincoln 29 Nov 2004 - Pacific Ocean
CVN-73 Washington 01 Dec 2004 - Atlantic Ocean
Surge Ready
CVN-70 Vinson 02 Oct 2004 - Ends COMPTUEX
CVN-68 Nimitz 20 Nov 2004 - Completes TSTA/FEP

9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
12/17/04 Travel Warning
United States Department of State
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Washington, DC 20520
This information is current as of today, Fri Dec 17 2004 15:27:10 GMT-0800.
INDONESIA
December 17, 2004
This Travel Warning updates security threat information for Indonesia, alerts American citizens to security concerns during the December and January holiday period, and reminds travelers of the ongoing terrorist threat for Indonesia. The Department of State continues to recommend that Americans defer all non-essential travel to Indonesia. This warning supersedes the September 13, 2004, Travel Warning for Indonesia.
The Department urges Americans who choose to travel to Indonesia despite this Travel Warning to observe vigilant personal security precautions; to remain aware of the continued potential for terrorist attacks against Americans, U.S. or other Western interests in Indonesia; and to register with U.S. Embassy Jakarta, U.S. Consulate General Surabaya or the U.S. Consular Agent in Bali. Registration facilitates the U.S. Mission's contact with Americans in emergency situations. Americans in Indonesia should maintain a low profile, vary daily routines, avoid crowds and demonstrations, and keep abreast of local news and developments that may affect the security situation.
The Department reminds Americans that the terrorist threat in Indonesia continues and may increase over the December-January holiday period. Reports indicate that terrorists are planning attacks against a wide variety of targets. These attacks could occur at any time and could be directed against any location, including those frequented by foreigners and identifiably American or other western facilities or businesses in Indonesia. Bombings have occurred in the past during the Christmas/New Year's period.
....snip.....
http://travel.state.gov/travel/indonesia_warning.html

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
12/20/04 Still on the lookout for the crop duster, tanker trucks and propane reported missing earlier this fall. Reporting the theft of the items tend to generate more interest than recovery, these items may have been recovered and news reporting just hasn’t reached the radar.