Gallup: Bush Gets Post-Election Bounce (53% Approval Rating)

Gallup News Service ^ | November 12, 2004

[RWR8189]

Job approval up five points, now at 53%

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval is now at 53%, up from 48% measured just before the election. A post-election bounce is typical for presidents, whether re-elected or not. Perhaps the cessation of hostilities between the two major candidates at the end of the campaign season influences people to be more positive, seeing their candidate as either graciously accepting defeat or basking in victory.

This week, before Gallup had the new Bush approval numbers available, Assistant Gallup Poll Editor Joseph Carroll reported on the history of post-election bounces (see "Will Bush Get a Post-Election Bounce?" in Related Items), showing that the average post-election bounce for all presidents since 1940 is +6 points. The average for re-elected presidents is higher (+7 points) than for defeated incumbents (+4 points). The high average for re-elected presidents is influenced by the 30-point bounce that President Harry S. Truman received, by far the largest post-election bounce ever measured. However, the last pre-election measure for Truman was taken in June 1948 and the post-election measure not taken until the following January. It is possible that Truman's approval rating just prior to the election was higher than the June reading, and if so, would reduce the size of the post-election bounce.

If only the presidents since Dwight Eisenhower are included, when the post-election polls were taken shortly after the election, the results show four incumbent presidents getting a positive bounce (Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, and Eisenhower), while one, Lyndon Johnson, got a negative bounce. Clinton's post-election bounce was +4 points, from 54% to 58%; Reagan's was +3 points, from 58% to 61%; Nixon's was +6 points, from 56% to 62%; and Eisenhower's was +7 points, from 68% to 75%. 

[RWR8189]

Re-Elected President	Post-Election Bounce in Job Approval
Bush, 2004	+5
Clinton, 1996	+4
Reagan, 1984	+3
Nixon, 1972	+6
Johnson, 1964	-4
Eisenhower, 1956	+7
*Truman, 1948	+30
*Roosevelt, 1940	+4
*Pre- and post-election polls not close to actual election

[RWR8189]

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[RWR8189]

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[Paleo Conservative]

Interesting how W's numbers went up after the 527 organizations stopped spending money to promote their anti-Bush propaganda.

[frog_jerk_2004]

I just love how W just seems to kick Klinton's butt everytime in every situation. He is so much more a better man than Klinton. This just infuriates the left. I'm happy with that thought.

[najida]

I hear glass breaking as someone prepares to slit their wrists.

[Smedley]

Without $150,000,000/month negative advertising against Bush, his approval will rise and stick to the 60% range

[dead]

Recount! Recount!

What's Lil' Tommy Daschle's approval at these days!!

(I am nowhere near done gloating.)

[Anti-MSM]

Nice to see the numbers in the 50's, but I never believed it was 48 at election time (oversampling the Dem's perhaps?). The turnout we had for President Bush is sure not indicative of a sub-50 approval.

[PISANO]

Please enough with POLLS already. It makes no sense that GW is MORE/LESS popular the day after the election as he was the day before. Polls CREATE NEWS where NO NEWS exits!!!

[Soul Seeker]

I'm sick of polls, but have to disagree when you say it makes no sense his popularity rating increased.

It makes perfect sense. The majority like Bush, I would wager the majority even agree more with him than they disagree. The election would seem to prove this point.

Now that Hollywood/MSM/World/Dems have retruned to their natural level of defiance against Bush his ratings will return to their natural levels. The opposition to Bush has always been inflated by those organizations.

[Tensgrrl]

Oh, thanks alot! I thought I had kicked the monkey off my back, but now you give me another poll, and that monkey is back!!!

[Cableguy]

Bush's JA should go up even more now that the media has to show "fair and balanced" coverage, especially if they want any favors from the Bushies for the next 4 years.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

President George W. Bush's job approval is now at 53%, up from 48% measured just before the election.

"Rove, Cheney, Israel Blamed." :)

[utahagen]

I give it a month before some pollster asserts, "50% of the people who voted for Bush regret doing so."

[soccer_linux_mozilla]

I lost my condifence in polls.

There will 19 others tomorrow shoing approval rating from 47-57%

:(

[DM1]

"He is so much more a better man than Klinton"
brother - you said it :)

[Dilbert56]

450,000+ jobs added, stock market back over 10K, and we're on the offense in Fallujah.

[embedded_rebel]

Spend that capital Mr.President