Posted on 11/11/2004 10:41:01 PM PST by ambrose
Shrinking Lead May Spell Doom For Frye Narrow Race May Require Recount
POSTED: 5:17 pm PST November 11, 2004 UPDATED: 6:11 pm PST November 11, 2004
SAN DIEGO -- Although it's unknown if the San Diego mayor's race outcome may be decided in court next week, one thing is certain -- the race is getting tighter every day.
The latest count from the registrar's office shows that write-in votes -- most of which have been cast for City Councilwoman Donna Frye, are 34.8 percent of the total cast. Meanwhile, incumbent Mayor Dick Murphy has moved up to 34.2 percent, and County Supervisor Ron Roberts is just shy of 31 percent.
A week ago, write-in votes -- which have apparently been cast for Frye -- led Murphy by 4,203 votes. By Thursday, that gap had shrunk to 2,471.
"If we look at the numbers that we have [Thursday], we project that if 1 percent of those write-in votes are not for her, she can still win," said John Nienstedt of Competitive Edge Research & Communication. "But again, it's so close that we're going to have to have a recount. I think that's almost mandatory in a situation like this."
With a 99 percent validity rate, Nienstedt projects that Frye wins the election by 361 votes. At 98.7 percent, Murphy takes the race by 112 votes.
Workers continued to count ballots on Veterans Day, despite the holiday. About 65,000 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be examined -- nearly 24,000 were reviewed Wednesday. If votes continue to be tallied at the current pace, the totals could be complete on Saturday.
If not, the count will be suspended on Sunday and continue Monday, when a lawsuit challenging Frye's write-in candidacy is scheduled for a hearing.
County Registrar Sally McPherson has added staff to handle the workload, with processing under way from 7:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Eleven two-member teams were on duty Thursday when NBC 7/39 looked in on the counting.
Although the vast majority of write-ins were for Frye, NBC 7/39 did note the occasional vote for Ralph Nader and, at one point, a ballot for SpongeBob SquarePants. Although observers for Frye and Murphy are watching the workers tabulate the votes and lawyers are mobilizing for a Monday court hearing on a challenge to the write-in votes, McPherson says none of it is affecting the work being done in her office
"You know, I want to do it right, not fast," said McPherson. "I want our people to be correct as we count these ballots. I think they're doing a fantastic job in getting through the work that we've got."
Once all the ballots are counted, it will still take some time to verify all the write-in votes.
There's a lawsuit in San Diego Superior Court to throw the election out on the grounds a write-in candidate on the ballot is illegal.
There's a lawsuit going to federal court tomorrow as well asking for a new runoff.
I suspect that is why Murphy was unhappy about the lawsuit being filed. He figured he'd win by the time the votes were counted.
The whole point of a primary and runoff election is so some crackpot doesn't end up winning with a third of the vote.
Why the write in?
I believe the mayor is (allegedly) a crook, his main challenger is a boob, and the write-in candidate is some left-wing surfer.
What a mess.
Why would it be voided by a court, is a write-in candidate illegal? If a write-in candidate can get this many votes, it says a lot about the who is running. Is there any case where a write-in actually came close to winning such a big race?
I'm not sure about San Diego law, but most local elections in CA have a primary, and then a runoff with the top two candidates if no one got 50% in the primary.
The idea is to ensure that the winner receives an absolute majority of the votes.
In this case, the top two contenders were in a runoff when the write-in candidate registered. The two men in the runoff are Republicans, and the write-in is a Democrat. All the Democrats voted for her, the Republicans split their vote between the two men.
It is hard to say what is "fair" in this situation.
I thought the runoff was only for special elections. Wasn't the point of Prop. 62 about that?
A clever ploy by the liberals, to put in a write-in liberal in a run-off between two Republicans. If this strategy holds up, there could be all sorts of possibilities in future Lousiana Senate races.
No, Prop 62 pertained to state and federal races... the runoff laws I am referring to pertain to local municipal elections.
She was a write in because her saltwater soaked supporters talked her into running at virtually the last minute. This, despite the fact that the city charter prohibits it.
The San Diego City Charter prohibits write-ins.
I doubt that they'll even be able to reelect Mary Landrieu, the next time around.
{{{ ping }}}
Check down the thread, there is a link to another lawsuit. That makes 2 so far.
The city charter says explicitly that, for certain offices, only candidates who have stood in a primary can run in the general. Which isn't to say that some court won't just make up new law on the spot. If this goes through, we'll be treated to future spectacles where someone who loses in the primary runs as a write-in anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if people just start bypassing the primary altogether to save money and avoid scrutiny.
My understanding is that the city charter prohibits write-ins, but that was invalidated 20 years ago by a state Supreme Court decision. Therefore the city municipal code was rewritten to allow write-ins, but no one ever got around to fixing the charter. Then a recent state Supreme Court decision in a similar (but not identical) case involving San Francisco appeared to overturn at least part of the old ruling, so the city charter may again be valid and supercede the municipal code. But it's all rather murky, especially since the candidate was given guidance by election officials ahead of time that her write-in candidacy was legal, and that has been the precedent in other elections for 20 years.
The courts will have to sort it out.
San Diego is a very corrupt and poorly managed city, which has incurred stupendous pension debts and squandered vast sums on sweetheart stadium deals. In any rational world the city would be officially declared bankrupt and it's politicians would be on their way to jail. Even in our irrational world the situation is so bad that both events are likely to happen.
That's why a write-in candidate was able to garner a third of the vote. I hope she wins.
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