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Posted on 11/06/2004 6:39:33 PM PST by conservativecorner
Love is stronger than hate. That is the lesson of the 2004 election results. Millions of Democrats and leftists have been seething with hatred for George W. Bush for years, and many of them lined up before the polls opened to cast their votes against him--one reason, apparently, that the exit poll results turned out to favor Democrats more than did the actual results. But Republicans full of love, or at least affection, for George W. Bush turned out steadily later in the day or sent in their ballots days before. They have watched the "old media" --the New York Times, the broadcast networks CBS, ABC, and NBC--beat up on Bush for the past year, and they have listened to the sneers and slurs directed at him by coastal elites for a long time. Now they had their chance to speak. They did so loudly and clearly, giving Bush the first popular-vote majority for president in 16 years.
Browse through an archive of columns by Michael Barone.
The line among political insiders was that turnout would increase from 2000 and that higher turnout would favor John Kerry. Right and wrong. Turnout was up 11 percent, but Bush's total votes were up 18 percent from 2000, while Kerry's were up just 10 percent from Al Gore's. The Democrats relied on labor unions and billionaire-financed 527 organizations for their turnout drives. They depended primarily on paid workers, some of whom were very good and some very poor; one in Ohio signed up Mary Poppins to vote and was paid with crack cocaine. The Bush campaign built its own organization and relied primarily on volunteers, some 1.2 million of them. Volunteers were given varied tasks and numeric goals and were repeatedly tested. They delivered on Election Day.
On election night, most observers were focusing on central cities to see how many votes the Democrats would roll up. Working for Fox News, I concentrated on smaller counties in Florida, Ohio, and other target states in which all or nearly all the precincts had reported results. I found a clear pattern in state after state. In small and medium-sized counties, turnout was up, by 10 percent, 20 percent, even 40 percent in fast-growing areas, and the Bush percentage was up as well, by 2, 4, or even 8 percentage points. Aggregate those increases, and you have more new Republican votes than new Democratic votes in Cuyahoga or Broward counties. That, repeated over and over again, is the story of this election. Karl Rove's strategy of concentrating on increasing Republican turnout worked.
Media bias. Four years ago, I wrote that this was a 49 percent nation. In the 1996, 1998, and 2000 House elections, Republicans led in the popular vote by 49 to 48 or 48.5 percent; the 2000 presidential election was a 48-to-48 percent tie. Americans seemed evenly divided, mainly on cultural and religious lines. In 2002 that changed a bit: Republicans won the House vote 51 to 46 percent while Bush's job approval hovered around 65 percent.
This year his job rating has hovered around 50 percent or below. He has been the target all year of vicious and biased coverage from old media, many if not most of whose personnel saw their job as removing this scourge from the presidency. The 60 Minutes story about Bush's Air National Guard service, which was based on obviously forged documents, is only the most egregious example. Old media have headlined violence in Iraq and reported almost nothing about positive developments there; they highlighted the charges of self-promoter Joseph Wilson and spoke nary a word when they were proved bogus; they have given good economic news far less positive coverage, studies show, than they did when Bill Clinton was in office.
Yet the results of this election closely resemble the 2002 House results. Bush beat Kerry 51 to 48 percent; the popular vote for the House appears to be about 51 to 47 percent Republican. Voters knew the stakes--polls showed majorities thought this was an important and consequential election--and both candidates had plenty of opportunity to make their cases. Thanks to the 527s, more money was apparently spent against Bush than for him. So the results cannot be dismissed as an accident. We are now a 51 percent nation, a Republican majority, as, once again in America, love has proved stronger than hate.
False premise. Christians are not "born" they are "born again".
yeah, but they are now saying "fear will always beat hope in America"
they are so incredibly self-obsessed.
they're the ones whop are afraid - we the ones who are hopeful.
who won?
You can't legislate good taste. I do think the 527s allow for foreign money to flow into our system and I do think that is bad.
Great post, and great analysis by Michael.
Translation: Bush and the Republicans have a mandate.
It must have killed Barone, along with Brit and the others, that Fox apparently made a conscious decision not to be the first to call the election for Bush. I suspect that that decision (to freeze up the map) came from Roger. Meanwhile, the other networks apparently decided to play a game of chicken with Fox (and each other) on calling the election. Weird night.
The funny thing is, Fox (and I believe NBC) froze up at 269 electoral votes but they should have called the election for Bush anyway, since at that point the best Kerry could do if he won out was tie at 269. Election over - - the House of Representatives, clearly and firmly in GOP hands, would then have re-elected Bush.
In other words, Bush was the winner at 269 but Fox (and everybody else) still failed to call the election for Bush even though the race was over. Curiouser still was the fact that this (obvious) situation was never addressed by Fox (unless I missed it somehow).
This one's a keeper.
Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my FoxFan list. *Warning: This can be a high-volume ping list at times.
Thanks for the ping!
Good read. Marking for the Fox news hound at this house...
Great site fuzzy!
I think the practice of paying workers who register voters by the voter should be outlawed. It only encourages fake registrations to pad the paycheck.
Barone BUMP!
The CONSERVATIVE NATION. Let that drive the libs bonkers! hehehehe
They did talk about it on Fox, late in the evening. I think it was Fred Barnes who brought it up.
-PJ
Loved that site.
Hilarious. :-)
Thank you. Believe me, it was my pleasure!
Stay Strong,
Fuzzy122
Make that 52%
Thank you. Share it with your friends - especially democrats!
Stay Strong,
Fuzzy122
They did address the tie situation, but I guess decided not to call it until Bush topped 270 free and clear.
Even so, their election coverage was superb, because they reported and I decided.
"Just as hate knows love's the cure...."
-Stevie Wonder
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