Posted on 11/06/2004 6:39:33 PM PST by conservativecorner
Love is stronger than hate. That is the lesson of the 2004 election results. Millions of Democrats and leftists have been seething with hatred for George W. Bush for years, and many of them lined up before the polls opened to cast their votes against him--one reason, apparently, that the exit poll results turned out to favor Democrats more than did the actual results. But Republicans full of love, or at least affection, for George W. Bush turned out steadily later in the day or sent in their ballots days before. They have watched the "old media" --the New York Times, the broadcast networks CBS, ABC, and NBC--beat up on Bush for the past year, and they have listened to the sneers and slurs directed at him by coastal elites for a long time. Now they had their chance to speak. They did so loudly and clearly, giving Bush the first popular-vote majority for president in 16 years.
Browse through an archive of columns by Michael Barone.
The line among political insiders was that turnout would increase from 2000 and that higher turnout would favor John Kerry. Right and wrong. Turnout was up 11 percent, but Bush's total votes were up 18 percent from 2000, while Kerry's were up just 10 percent from Al Gore's. The Democrats relied on labor unions and billionaire-financed 527 organizations for their turnout drives. They depended primarily on paid workers, some of whom were very good and some very poor; one in Ohio signed up Mary Poppins to vote and was paid with crack cocaine. The Bush campaign built its own organization and relied primarily on volunteers, some 1.2 million of them. Volunteers were given varied tasks and numeric goals and were repeatedly tested. They delivered on Election Day.
On election night, most observers were focusing on central cities to see how many votes the Democrats would roll up. Working for Fox News, I concentrated on smaller counties in Florida, Ohio, and other target states in which all or nearly all the precincts had reported results. I found a clear pattern in state after state. In small and medium-sized counties, turnout was up, by 10 percent, 20 percent, even 40 percent in fast-growing areas, and the Bush percentage was up as well, by 2, 4, or even 8 percentage points. Aggregate those increases, and you have more new Republican votes than new Democratic votes in Cuyahoga or Broward counties. That, repeated over and over again, is the story of this election. Karl Rove's strategy of concentrating on increasing Republican turnout worked.
Media bias. Four years ago, I wrote that this was a 49 percent nation. In the 1996, 1998, and 2000 House elections, Republicans led in the popular vote by 49 to 48 or 48.5 percent; the 2000 presidential election was a 48-to-48 percent tie. Americans seemed evenly divided, mainly on cultural and religious lines. In 2002 that changed a bit: Republicans won the House vote 51 to 46 percent while Bush's job approval hovered around 65 percent.
This year his job rating has hovered around 50 percent or below. He has been the target all year of vicious and biased coverage from old media, many if not most of whose personnel saw their job as removing this scourge from the presidency. The 60 Minutes story about Bush's Air National Guard service, which was based on obviously forged documents, is only the most egregious example. Old media have headlined violence in Iraq and reported almost nothing about positive developments there; they highlighted the charges of self-promoter Joseph Wilson and spoke nary a word when they were proved bogus; they have given good economic news far less positive coverage, studies show, than they did when Bill Clinton was in office.
Yet the results of this election closely resemble the 2002 House results. Bush beat Kerry 51 to 48 percent; the popular vote for the House appears to be about 51 to 47 percent Republican. Voters knew the stakes--polls showed majorities thought this was an important and consequential election--and both candidates had plenty of opportunity to make their cases. Thanks to the 527s, more money was apparently spent against Bush than for him. So the results cannot be dismissed as an accident. We are now a 51 percent nation, a Republican majority, as, once again in America, love has proved stronger than hate.
That is why the President was speaking before large enthusiastic crowds every day for the past month, while Kerry was speaking to half full houses that had to be filled with paid audiences, and you couldn't pay them enough to pretend to be enthusiastic.
You can't beat something with nothing. You can't beat love with hate. And in 2008, the Donks won't even have the object of their hate to run against.
That is great, fuzzy. Everyone needs to watch it.
Barone got me through the night. I couldn't wait for his updates.
He was nailing Estrich to the wall with cold facts.
Thanks for posting this. I was watching him closely on election night and he looked puzzled as he tried to figure out those stupid polls. I could see something wasn't meshing with him.
One should look to the future: base support could and should be mobilized and increased. But as the base turnout increases, there will be diminishing returns (unless one resorts to multiple and dead voters).
It has been reported that Karl Rove spoke of 4 million Christian voters sitting out 2000 election. Say, 250000 of them died between 2000 and 2004. Say, that this time out of remaining 3.75 million it was possible to get 2.5-3 million voting. OK. But it would leave this particular new voter reservoir almost empty.
Assuming that these voters are kept mobilized (and one has to keep working on it) the question becomes where and how to find next 3-5 million voters, and maybe more, for 2006-2008 and beyond.
Barone did stellar work for Fox and brought sanity back into the election. When I got home from poll watching all day and heard little whiny Susan whatserface repeat the exit polls I thought I was going to die...then Barone kicked in with his brilliant analysis...life was good...oh so good!
Yes, you could tell on Fox when Brit was conversing with him on election night when the first exit polls were hitting. Barone was speaking in breaking monotone, his hands were fidgety. His body language had me WAY nervous.
I think that the community people tend to just look after their families and local community, which can include their churches, and often eschew politics. Often the Gemeinschaft will let the Gesellchaft, those interested in politics and government, mostly run things. I think, though, that with the threat of terrorism, threat to marriage, and talk of extending government out into a global test that the community people decided it was time to get out and look after things.
I also think that it was the Gemeinschaft who supported the American revolution. The Gesellschaft are only able to exist at the whim of the communities, and they can only push us so far. They are unaware of this fact, however, and refer to the community people as "rubes" and "religious fanatics."
I don't really remember hearing much about a divided nation when Klinton was in office. Wonder why?
Wouldn't we all like to know how many bottles Whoopi Goldberg has been through, since the election?
I think Jack Daniels nailed Susan election night. She was positively looped!
B-U-M-P
Are you going to change your name to "happy" now? Just curious!
As George Lucas might say it; They turned to the Dark Side because they allowed themselves to be consumed by Hate...
Are you in favor of some sort of campaign reform?
I've read articles in conservative magazines written by barone. I want to say it was The American Spectator, back when it was a tab size monthly. I also recall reading an article or two in TAS by brit hume.
Barone Bump!!
I skimmed through this thread, so if this is already pointed out, then please forgive my oversight. While Barone did do stellar work, the Beltway Boys nailed the 51% and the EV count in their pre-election prediction.
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