One should look to the future: base support could and should be mobilized and increased. But as the base turnout increases, there will be diminishing returns (unless one resorts to multiple and dead voters).
It has been reported that Karl Rove spoke of 4 million Christian voters sitting out 2000 election. Say, 250000 of them died between 2000 and 2004. Say, that this time out of remaining 3.75 million it was possible to get 2.5-3 million voting. OK. But it would leave this particular new voter reservoir almost empty.
Assuming that these voters are kept mobilized (and one has to keep working on it) the question becomes where and how to find next 3-5 million voters, and maybe more, for 2006-2008 and beyond.
"Say, 250000 of them died between 2000 and 2004."
You are not accounting for others who would have grown up to take their place.
The dems in their current manifestation seem to have maxed. Kerry got 10% more than Gore, but that is right in line with the increased per centage of turnout, using this article's numbers, 11%. Bush got 18% more votes, certainly a 7% increase, allowing for increased turnout.
The only way to get new voters is to govern well.
We've still got SO MUCH work to do, a dem may work from sun to sun, but pubbies work is never done.
False premise. Christians are not "born" they are "born again".