Posted on 11/06/2004 2:27:18 PM PST by dufekin
Vanity post; no thread.
NOTE: We also need to look at governor's races.
I don't understand several of these picks. My thoughts:
Byrd: Very vulnerable. This guy seems increasingly out-of-touch with the value of his state, and a smart opponent would build upon this by going after his age (he will be 89.) When you have an older Senator prone to making unusual observations, it raises a lot of questions, as Senator Bunning of KY found out.
Clinton: Not vulnerable. New York is very liberal, as Tuesday's results demonstrated. Guiliani hurt himself in New York state by campaigning so hard for GWB. He needs a lot of Kerry voters to win in 2006.
Conrad: Vulnerable. North Dakota is as conservative as South Dakota. If South Dakota will throw out the minority leader, North Dakota will throw out Conrad. All the GOP needs is a good candidate.
Lieberman: Vulnerable. Liberal Democrats are furious at Lieberman for his neo-conservative foreign policy leanings. Go over to DUmmyland. They are ready to burn him at the stake. He could face a nasty primary fight, or a third party candidate running to his left.
Good point.
Montana has a Dem gov?
I'm hearing that there's a very good chance that Lieberman will not run for re-election. He's NOT a happy camper...the Dems treated him like crap in the primaries. And if you saw his comments in Florida the week before the election..though supposedly campaigning for Kerry, IMHO he just about endorsed Bush..Now here's where it gets interesting. If Bush offers Lieberman the post of ambassador to Israel..he'd jump at it.. Hadassah would be a goddess over there. Lieberman resigns, allowing GOP Go Jodie Rendell to appoint a senator..I think Shays is a possibility..and he could hold the seat. There's also a strong rumor that Dodd will resign..and run for governor. If successful ,a nd thta's likely, then he could appoint his successor..Most likely crazy leftie Rosa de Lauro..but she might have a hard time holding the seat in 2008..
Looks like the Dems have many more safe seats then the GOP this time around.
Guiliani has already said he does not want Ashcroft's job. I think he has eyes on 08 and doesn't want to do anything that might cause some voters not to like him and in the AG job you can make enemies.
I don't think Kennedy is vulnerable. Mitt Romney is not that popular in Massachusetts (approval rating was around 40 percent early this year by my recollection), and there was a rumor in today's Boston Herald that Bush is considering him for a cabinet position (maybe Dept of Homeland Security.) But, with his vigorous backing of the president, I think Romney realizes he may have written himself a ticket out of Massachusetts, and onto bigger and better things.
2 things:
FL: Katherine Harris is almost certainly running in 2006, not Jeb. No idea if she'd win, but I'm guessing yes.
WA: No-one has mentioned Cant-vote-well. She didn't even win the first time, some might argue, and she's only a first-termer, and is completely blah. She's radically anti-business and anti-life. She's already filibuster queen and if she carries on the way she has, and tries to filibuster more judicial noms and tort reform, the only reason she'd stay is if we can't find a decent candidate to go up against her here. Reichert has been mentioned as a possbility, as has John Carlson. If the GOP made it a priority, it might be winnable.
How come MA keeps electing Pubbie governors, yet they keep exporting liberal crap like sKerry and the Swimmers. Can't they keep their sewage at home and send us the good Pubbies?
If Patty Bin Laden Murray can win handily in WA, Cantdowell is a lock...
Do we really want a Senator Shays?
His opponent should also remind the WV voters of his Klan past and remind them that this does not reflect their values.
Good point.
That's a pattern across the northeast, in MA, NY, CT.
Having lived in several northeast states, the Dems take control of the legislature, and push a radical left agenda, and the voters pick a moderate Republican governor to counterbalance it.
The moderate Republican governor (e.g. Weld in MA) tries to run for Senate, and the Dems start running tv commercials with photos of Newt Gingrich, Trent Lott, and Tom DeLay, and tie the agenda of Southern Republicans to the candidate (especially taking away a woman's "right to choose.") And then the Republican loses.
The truth is that most of the Republican governors in the northeast are liberal on social issues, and conservative on fiscal issues. So, if you want another Arlen Spector or Olympia Snowe in the Senate, maybe there is hope. But, a conservative Republican? I wouldn't hold my breath.
I never said he was vulnerable. I said he needs to be targeted. I understand that every road, building, park, etc. in WV has his name on it so it would be difficult to take him out but WV is purple. The money Byrd has spent in WV is having the effect of bringing it out of the backwoods.
No one thought Daschle would ever be defeated.
This chart agrees with you. If you read the note after the asterisks, it's saying Talent will only lose if his opponent is deceased.
Besides being fat, stupid, and socialist, Teddy Kennedy is getting old.
He will turn 75 at the start of his next term in 2007 if elected. He is out of power now, and the thought of never getting power back has got to be a strong consideration for him. The only thing on him that gets any exercise is his mouth, which is operating 24 hours a day with vicious socialist rhetoric coming out or massive quantities of gin and food going in.
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