Coldheartedtruth.com gets 50 of 51 correct

Coldheartedtruth.com ^ | 11/5 | C.H. Truth

[C.H. Truth]

In the end... Coldheartedtruth.com projected 14 battleground states using a somewhat lengthy spreadsheet to calculate who would win and by how much. The top line is that this spreadsheet calculated 13 of those 14 states correctly... missing only Wisconsin.

But more impressively the spreadsheet called 6 of the 15 races within 1 point of the final actual result. One state was 1.01 point off the final result and another was at 1.07 point off. Right there we have 57% of the calculated states within 1.07 points of the final result.

4 of the remaining 6 states were under 2.77 points off the final actual results. Only Colorado (3.56) and Nevada (6.53) were off by any large margin.

About 50% of the time... the spreadsheet factors made the results closer to the actual number... while the other 50%, I would have been better off just using the CCPA of the state polling. So I will have to take a look at what worked, and what didn't work... and tweak the spreadsheet to help garner better results in 2008 when Rudy faces Hillary.

Check the Results

[Blood of Tyrants]

Conservatives should be winnin much more than they do. The population in red counties is 151 million vs. the 101 million in blue counties.

[stylin19a]

where'd the other 30 million go ?

[StJacques]

On Monday night in an e-mail I sent to my relatives and friends, I predicted 296 votes for Bush too, missing only on Wisconsin. And that error is very close. Kerry beat Bush in Wisconsin by 11,813 votes out of 2,892,381 total votes cast or a margin of .4 of 1% or to put it in decimal form by .004084.

I still wonder if there wasn't something fishy about the vote in Wisconsin.

[garbanzo]

I still wonder if there wasn't something fishy about the vote in Wisconsin.

Interesting that virtually all of the predictive/projection mechanisms missed a single state - Wisconsin. I think only tradesports called WI correctly.

[ApesForEvolution]

Ah, but remember...the Red counties have children, while the Blue counties have abortions...

[txkev]

With the amount of voter fraud and voter intimidation in Wisconsin this year, they were probably 14 of 14!

[Blood of Tyrants]

The heck if I know. Maybe they are heading for Canada.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Absolutely. Over 1/3 of all pregnancies among black women end in abortion vs 1/6 among white women. The libs have aborted probably 15 million people who would be old enough to be voters today.

[capitan_refugio]

I don't think they missed Wisconsin. I understand there were several tens of thousands of "over votes" in the Milwaukee area.

[T'wit]

Not surprising to miss Wisconsin. It's very hard to calculate vote fraud. I suppose we could add an appropriate question to future polls: "How many times do you plan to vote Democratic?" Of course there would still be technical difficulties in surveying dead Democrats who planned to vote.

[ApesForEvolution]

Sad...