Posted on 11/04/2004 8:43:23 AM PST by jperspective
RJC Analysis of 2004 Jewish Vote Shows Unmistakable Shift Toward Republicans
Washington, DC... Based on several exit polls recently released, it is clear that President Bush did substantially better among Jewish voters this year than he did in 2000. From 1992 to today we've seen more than a 100% increase in the Jewish Republican vote. The trend is unmistakable: · In 1992, President Bush (41) won 11% of the Jewish vote · In 1996, Senator Dole won 16% of the Jewish vote · In 2000, President Bush (43) won 19% of the Jewish vote · In 2004, preliminary results indicate George W. Bush received likely support of 25% (a 32% increase over 2000).This is a clear and irrefutable trend demonstrating continued increasing support for Republican candidates in the Jewish community.
To further highlight this point, here are some undisputed facts. It is clear that President Bush increased his share of the Jewish vote from 2000 by 32%, a substantial increase. According to available data, no other ethnic, religious, or racial group increased its support for the President by this large a percentage. Despite an unprecedented, massive effort on the part of the Democratic Party, the Kerry-Edwards campaign, and related support groups, Kerry did worse among Jewish voters than any Democratic presidential candidate in the last 12 years.
Looking to the future, we are optimistic that this trend will continue, for three reasons:
· The Republican Party has demonstrated that it not only has become the "pro-Israel party," but it is committed to building and expanding its support in the Jewish community.
· Demographic trends are favorable to the Republicans - younger Jewish voters are more inclined to vote Republican. In fact, preliminary results indicate that 32% of Jews ages 18-49 supported Bush. In addition, the foundation of the traditional Democratic Jewish base, senior citizens, is shrinking in numbers.
· The Jewish community, according to several analyses, is becoming more religious. The Orthodox community, which represents a solid base of support for Republicans among Jews, is becoming larger within the Jewish community.
Taken together, these factors equal a positive outlook for Republicans and a troubling outlook for Democrats.
Obviously the statistics are encouraging. One of the problems with attempting to poll Jewish voters is that it does not adjust for the many JINO's(Jews in Name Only)included in the statistics. There are a very large number of unafiliated Jews showing up in these figures. Some interesting trends I've noticed which won't show up in the polls is that Orthodox Jews overwhelmingly supported Bush. Also, Russian Jews supported Bush by a 3 to 1 margin. They understand leftism better then anyone. It's also important to note that younger Jews are much more likely to vote Republican then their aging parents and grandparents. I guess sometimes you can't teach an old dog new tricks.
--anyone who wants to know the real story should fundrace.org and newsmeat.com up all the zipcodes surrounding prominent synagogues. The money went to Kerry and other Dems.
Usually the next line to claims like this is, "Well, now all you Baptists had better go home and shut up."
CNN reports that in Florida, Jews voted for Kerry by an 80-20 margin; in New York, the margin was 80-18; and in California, the margin was 79-19."
Considering CNN's coverage of the 2004 campaign, you still take CNN at its word? I would wait until all the precinct-by-precinct data comes in.
Give me a break. A few people make a dumb petetion and you use that as your example. Even the Israelis are planing on pulling out of Gaza. The Pali's can keep it.
FYI..ping the list..
My 89-year-old grandfather - Jewish, in Florida to boot - voted GOP for President for the first time in his life.
If ALL Jewish voters had voted for Pres. Bush, no state except MAYBE Wisconsin would have flipped from Kerry to Bush. Evangelical Christians provided the Bush margin this time (four million who didn't vote in 2000 by some reports), and I've seen one claim of up to 25 million unregistered evangelicals! Energy should be put where the votes are.
New Jersey has a pretty large population of Jews as well. Florida by far was the one that I thought the Jews could make a difference in.
Yes. If 100% (80% would NOT be enough) of Jewish voters went for Pres. Bush, then FL, NJ, PA & WI might have - but not certainly - flipped blue to red.
Agreed. For me it was mor about principal. I campaigned hard amongst the Jews to get them out to vote. I think it's important that the jews throw their support behind a president who was such a good friend to Israel.
The principle is very important!
The point is that people who have no clue about Jewish voting dynamics should use their energy convincing fellow Christians, not insulting Jews.
Did you even bother to read the article before posting???
And we all know how accurate that was.
In the three states with the largest Jewish populations -- New York, California, and Florida -- American Jews supported Democrats by even wider margins. CNN reports that in Florida, Jews voted for Kerry by an 80-20 margin; in New York, the margin was 80-18; and in California, the margin was 79-19.
The margins could have been reversed in all three of those states, and it wouldn't have changed the outcome. Kerry carried New York and California on the strength of the Christian vote.
but surely.
I believe those Jews supporting the President are younger Jews. The older Jews are very fearful of conservatives, which is so sad. We're their best friends, if only they could see it.
True, if that were the issue.
But the issue was the Jewish vote for Bush in 2004 vs. 2000. Some threads on FR predicted that Bush would get 40% of the Jewish vote.
I honestly thought Bush would get between 30-40% of the Jewish vote. I'm disapointed. At the same time the internals show that trend shifting. The key for me is the arge numbers of joung jews as well as observant jews that voted Republican.
It's like the recent Rassmussen (I think) poll about women's voting trends said. Gen-X/Gen-Reagan are trending Republican. It's becoming more and more true across the board.
However, you wouldn't know that in the synogogue I attend Hebrew classes in. When my husband arrived Wed. night (I couldn't be there due to attending a business meeting out of town), he found written in Hebrew on the chalkboard, "The elections results are evil," and the Rabbi and the students were lamenting sKerry's loss. My hubby walked in on the tail end of the conversation. Right after he got there, class started so he didn't get to submit his conservative 2 cents worth to that discussion.
Yep, I'll take the Jewish vote.
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