Posted on 11/04/2004 12:13:38 AM PST by Remember_Salamis
Dear FReepers,
I have put together analysis of 2006 Senate Races. Bottom Line: We look STRONG! There are many more retirements on the Democratic side (Feinstein, Byrd, Kohl, Bingaman, and maybe even Ted Kennedy) versus less on the GOP side (Frist plus Lugar, Lott, and Hatch are rumored to be mulling retirement). There are also a lot of other factors:
Republicans (15)
Solid Win - George Allen of Virginia – Allen’s seat is very safe
Win - Conrad Burns of Montana – Democrat Brian Schweitzer gave him a run for his money in 2000, but Schweitzer is the only prominent democrat in MT and he had to squeak out a congressional race.
Loss - Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island – I will make a confident prediction: Chafee or Snowe will lose in 2006. The Club for Growth absolutely detests Chafee, Snowe, and Collins and hey will spend millions to defeat on of them IN THE PRIMARIES. IF Chafee makes it through the primary, I think he’ll lose. His father’s name recognition is starting to wear off, and it’s a blue state.
Solid Win - Mike DeWine of Ohio – Safe Seat
Win - John Ensign of Nevada – Swing state, but win. Ensign is a very popular tax-cutter in NV and should pull it out. Ensign’s influence is growing rapidly and with Democrat Reid being the probable Minority leader, Nevadans will be very happy with major influence on both sides of the aisle. Besides, there’s not much Democratic competition outside of Shelley Berkley.
Retirement, Loss- Bill Frist of Tennessee - Frist will retire, as he has pledged, and conservative democrat Harold Ford jr. will win the seat. I’m not saying that Republican congressman Wamp can’t win the seat, but he can’t compete with Ford’s star power.
Solid Win - Orrin Hatch of Utah – Even if Hatch retires, there’s no way that Rep. Matheson (D) will beat the very popular Rep. Chris Cannon (R).
Solid Win- Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas – Safe.
Solid Win - John Kyl of Arizona – Very safe.
Win, but poss. Retirement - Trent Lott of Mississippi – Lott wins if he stays, but State attorney General Moore could put this seat in the democrat’s camp if he retires.
Win, regardless of retirement - Richard Lugar of Indiana – Outgoing Gov. Kernan (D), who was just voted out of office, might take a shot at Lugar’s seat. Other than that’ there aren’t many prominent democrats in the state not named Bayh.
Possible Loss - Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania – The Dems hate this guy like we hate Daschle or Harkin. There’s a good chance that the Democrats run Bob Casey jr. (fmr. Gov Bob Casey Sr.’s son), who is pro-life just like his father. Casey can piggyback off the Philadelphia political machine and go toe-to-toe with Santorum in Western PA on social issues.
Possible Loss - Olympia Snowe of Maine – Either the Maine GOP will purge her and get their soul back, or the Dems will simply beat her in the open election. Win - Jim Talent of Missouri – Missouri is moving out of the swing state category and more towards the red state category. I can’t see Talent losing unless Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) (Mel and Jean’s son) runs, but he’s pretty green (elected to the House in 2000).
Win - Craig Thomas of Wyoming – Not a chance of a loss
So, I have 11 Republican retentions and Four Republican losses.
Democrats (17) Solid Win - Daniel Akaka of Hawaii – Unless Gov. Lingle decides to run for Senate instead of Governor in 2006, which is highly unlikely, this is as big a lock as any seat.
Win, unless he retires - Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico – Heather Wilson, a former US Air Force Officer and current congresswoman, is going to run regardless. She has a good shot against Bingaman, but a great shot vs. an open seat.
Loss after Retirement or Death - Robert Byrd of West Virginia – Unless the former Klansman dies, he’ll probably retire. Although I’m hoping for the former, Shelley Capito (R), a moderate republican, should win in a state trending red. She’ll have to duke it out with two young conservative democratic congressmen, but she should pull it out.
Loss - Maria Cantwell of Washington – Although liberal whackjob and fellow Washington senator Patty Murray makes Cantwell look conservative, she is completely out of touch with those outside of Seattle. Republican George Nethercutt’s campaign against Murray caught on late, but the giant killer (he beat the unbeatable Tom Foley 10 years ago) has recently stated he’s considering “pulling a Thune” and running against Cantwell. Nethercutt will win in 2006. Guaranteed.
Win - Thomas Carper of Delaware – Safe
Loss - Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York – Rudy Giuliani WILL BEAT HER! In fact, there’s even a possibility that she resigns in 2006 to run for President in 2008 if she feels Rudy has a chance of winning. If that’s the case, Rudy easily beats AG Spitzer.
Win, but I don’t under stand why - Kent Conrad of North Dakota – How many years behind South Dakota is North Dakota politically. Both are HEAVILY RED states that elect two democrats to panhandle for farm subsidies. Conrad doesn’t have Dorgan’s political clout in D.C, so if popular – and just re-elected, Governor Hoeven decides to run, he could win. But I think he likes sitting in the Governor’s chair.
Loss - John Corzine of New Jersey – Backlash Alert! The backlash against McGAYvey will break the democratic political machine in Jersey. Corzine will be the first victim.
Loss - Mark Dayton of Minnesota – The already-vulnerable Dayton is now a laughingstock after fleeing D.C. last month due to concern over terrorism. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, no bastion of conservative thought, called Dayton "Cassandra," a "flake" and a "little chicken." Up-and-coming Conservative Rep. Mark Kennedy has been foaming at the mouth to take out Dayton since his friend Norm Coleman won a senate seat two years ago.
Loss after retirement - Dianne Feinstein of California – The gun-grabbin’ grandma will probably retire in 2006, and the Republicans will have a competitive primary between Rep. Issa, grassroots superstar Tom McCLintock, and National Security Advisor Condi Rice may all throw their hats in. Tom has stated he is already preparing for a run for Lt. Governor in 2006 instead, but we shall see. If Condi Rice runs, which I expect, Condi the Moderate will ride the Governator’s moderate coattails during his Gubernatorial campaign. Another reason why I think that the GOP will pick up this seat if Feinstein retires is that the Democrats will be throwing everything they have to defeat Arnie, leaving the senate seat ripe for the picking. An Arnie-Condi-Tom ticket could sweep the GOP back into prominence in the Golden State.
Win, even if he retires - Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts – Even if Teddy retires, it won’t be much of an improvement with gay icon Rep. Barney Frank in his seat. Gov. Romney could win the open seat, but I believe he’s eying the White House (which he will not win).
Loss after Retirement - Herb Kohl of Wisconsin – Rumors are a-flyin’ that Kohl will retire and HUD Secretary and former Gov. Tommy Thompson will run for his seat and take it.
Win - Joe Lieberman of Connecticut – It may sound strange, but keeping a moderate anchor in the Democratic Party in the senate is a good thing for this country.
Loss - Bill Nelson of Florida – You heard it here first: Jeb Bush will run for the Senate in 2006 and win. His Governor's seat is up that year too, so Jeb will decide to follow in his grandpappy's footsteps and become a Senator. I've heard is a bit of a policy wonk so he sounds great for the Senate. What's more, having Jeb in the senate is like keeping a spare tire in the trunk. If the wheels fall off the GOP in the 2008 election, we have an EXCELLENT "spare candidate" waiting in the wings in the senate for 2012.
Win - Ben Nelson of Nebraska – Nebraskans love having two moderates hugging the center from both sides.
Loss, even if he retires- Paul Sarbanes of Maryland – “The Man of Steele” will win. LT. Gov. Michael Steele, the black conservative who wowed so many at the convention, will run in 2006 for the Senate AND WIN. He was going to run against Sen. Mikulski this year, but the Governor asked him to wait. Steele has strongly hinted he will run in 2006.
Win - Debbie Stabenow of Michigan – A crappy candidate, but there’s little competition right now.
Dems retain 8, lose 9.
Independent (1) Previous %
Win, but we won’t pick up the seat - Jim Jeffords of Vermont – probable democratic pick-up in a very liberal state.
So, what does this all add up to? Well, the GOP will pick up 5 Seats for the second election in a row, the democrats will lose four, and Jeffords will either (1) become a Democrat or (2) lose.
That will put the Senate at 60-40 GOP. I feel very confident in this number because the GOP seats I picked to lose aren’t extremely weak, but merely vulnerable. Many people will vehemently disagree with my pick that BOTH New England RINOs up for reelection in 2006 will lose, that the majority leader will retire and the Democrats will take the seat, and that Rick Santorum will out and out lose. I’m also assuming that Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) will win, even though he’s definitely beatable and may even retire. I’m also assuming that Mitt Romney will not run for Teddy Kennedy’s seat if he were to die or retire. So technically, the GOP could get as many as 65 seats and should pick up at least 2 or 3 seats at a minimum. It’s pretty simple: in 2006 the Democrats have far more vulnerable seats than the GOP. The Democrats also have far more potential retirements than we do.
But there could there be a downturn to such a bright future in 2006??? Yes. If the GOP expects to make massive gains in 2006, there’s a chance that they will hold off on stronger, more controversial legislation until they get above 60 votes. They can then pass many of the historic pieces of legislation that we all want: Social Security privatization, Fundamental Tax Reform, Major Tort Reform (although I expect tort reform this spring), etc. So we could see the 109th Congress as nothing more than setting the stage for the 110th. The next two years will still be critical, however, as we may see MULTIPLE Supreme Court appointments.
- Remember Salamis
How long have you been working on this?
1 Day. I'm just that good.
That's a bold statement. Yet I don't see anything wrong with your analysis.
60-40 would be awesome
I strongly disagree......Ford will not win statewide in 2006 and Santorum will win strongly....Carper can be defeated by Mike Castle.
Realignment is here!
That outlook is very conservative, and it is amazing!
So how many do you see the GOP getting in 06?
I guess the Tribune doesn't realize CASSANDRA WAS RIGHT, it's just that no one listened to her.
Why will Ford lose?
I can assure you with every fiber of my being, Junior is neither a Conservative 'Rat nor stands a chance at winning the open Senate seat. Tennessee IS a solid Republican state and only becomes more so with each successive election. Whomever the GOP nominates for the seat will win, and it will probably be Rep. Marsha Blackburn.
The talk here in Austin is that Hutchinson is eyeing the governorship here but is waiting to see what Rick Perry (current governor) and Carole Keeton Rylander McClellan Strayhorn Keeton Rylander Strayhorn (current treasurer and Perry's chief antagonist) plan to do before committing herself.
In Texas, any decent GOP Senate candidate will win however.
Because Ford's name is synonomous with sleazy Memphis politics. He may have a clean nose, but his daddy, a racist slimeball, is pulling the strings. The rest of the state would never elect him to the Senate (assuming the 'Rats would even ALLOW him to have the nomination (they told him "no" in '02) - and the nat'l 'Rats got their "token" in IL with Osama bin Barack, and the White 'Rat power establishment doesn't want any more of "those Black people" in the Senate), and let's not forget that despite his "moderate" rhetoric, he IS leftist.
Democrats built up those massive majorities in the 60s and 70s and passed truckloads of liberal legislation. We will do the same with conservative/free market legislation.
My advice: keep working at it. Start by not calling a commie-with-a-smile like Harold Ford a conservative. Continue by putting Snowe down as safe for reelection. Who's gonna beat her? Dan Gwadosky? Tom Allen? Tom Andrews??? I don't think so.
Nice job with the analysis, but I'm hoping that Governor Johanns will make a run at Ben Nelson's seat in Nebraska. Last I heard he was warming to the idea of running which would make that a very competitive race.
Would love to see either Pataki or Rudy take on Hillary. They will both have to do some soul searching because 1) there is no way either can win the '08 GOP nomination and 2) if they both decide to run, as has been speculated, they will drain each others resources. Rudy would make the better candidate though.
Well, he's not THAT left. The American Conservative Union Gives him a lifetime rating of 20, with a 40 in 2003. Compare that with ultra-lib Pelosi's 3 and moderates like Sen. Bayh with 22 and Lieberman with 19. So Ford is squarely in the "Blue Dog" camp.
The Club for Growth just may force her out in the primaries. And according to the American Conservative union ratings, Harold Ford's lifetime 20 rating puts him between Sen. Bayh's 22 and Lieberman's 19.
I don't know about California. The Republican Party out there could organize and come up with a winner. Boxer could have lost easily if they only selected a winner. Lungren as a candidate would have been a winner. Those guys from top to bottom need help.
Just a few "show" votes doesn't make him a Conservative, let alone a moderate. (And Bayh and Lieberman, despite posturing to the contrary, are STILL liberals). His entire family has their hand in Memphis politics, and they are as evil and corrupt (not to mention maniacal) as the day is long. He IS daddy's puppet, period.
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