Posted on 11/04/2004 12:13:38 AM PST by Remember_Salamis
Dear FReepers,
I have put together analysis of 2006 Senate Races. Bottom Line: We look STRONG! There are many more retirements on the Democratic side (Feinstein, Byrd, Kohl, Bingaman, and maybe even Ted Kennedy) versus less on the GOP side (Frist plus Lugar, Lott, and Hatch are rumored to be mulling retirement). There are also a lot of other factors:
Republicans (15)
Solid Win - George Allen of Virginia – Allen’s seat is very safe
Win - Conrad Burns of Montana – Democrat Brian Schweitzer gave him a run for his money in 2000, but Schweitzer is the only prominent democrat in MT and he had to squeak out a congressional race.
Loss - Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island – I will make a confident prediction: Chafee or Snowe will lose in 2006. The Club for Growth absolutely detests Chafee, Snowe, and Collins and hey will spend millions to defeat on of them IN THE PRIMARIES. IF Chafee makes it through the primary, I think he’ll lose. His father’s name recognition is starting to wear off, and it’s a blue state.
Solid Win - Mike DeWine of Ohio – Safe Seat
Win - John Ensign of Nevada – Swing state, but win. Ensign is a very popular tax-cutter in NV and should pull it out. Ensign’s influence is growing rapidly and with Democrat Reid being the probable Minority leader, Nevadans will be very happy with major influence on both sides of the aisle. Besides, there’s not much Democratic competition outside of Shelley Berkley.
Retirement, Loss- Bill Frist of Tennessee - Frist will retire, as he has pledged, and conservative democrat Harold Ford jr. will win the seat. I’m not saying that Republican congressman Wamp can’t win the seat, but he can’t compete with Ford’s star power.
Solid Win - Orrin Hatch of Utah – Even if Hatch retires, there’s no way that Rep. Matheson (D) will beat the very popular Rep. Chris Cannon (R).
Solid Win- Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas – Safe.
Solid Win - John Kyl of Arizona – Very safe.
Win, but poss. Retirement - Trent Lott of Mississippi – Lott wins if he stays, but State attorney General Moore could put this seat in the democrat’s camp if he retires.
Win, regardless of retirement - Richard Lugar of Indiana – Outgoing Gov. Kernan (D), who was just voted out of office, might take a shot at Lugar’s seat. Other than that’ there aren’t many prominent democrats in the state not named Bayh.
Possible Loss - Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania – The Dems hate this guy like we hate Daschle or Harkin. There’s a good chance that the Democrats run Bob Casey jr. (fmr. Gov Bob Casey Sr.’s son), who is pro-life just like his father. Casey can piggyback off the Philadelphia political machine and go toe-to-toe with Santorum in Western PA on social issues.
Possible Loss - Olympia Snowe of Maine – Either the Maine GOP will purge her and get their soul back, or the Dems will simply beat her in the open election. Win - Jim Talent of Missouri – Missouri is moving out of the swing state category and more towards the red state category. I can’t see Talent losing unless Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) (Mel and Jean’s son) runs, but he’s pretty green (elected to the House in 2000).
Win - Craig Thomas of Wyoming – Not a chance of a loss
So, I have 11 Republican retentions and Four Republican losses.
Democrats (17) Solid Win - Daniel Akaka of Hawaii – Unless Gov. Lingle decides to run for Senate instead of Governor in 2006, which is highly unlikely, this is as big a lock as any seat.
Win, unless he retires - Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico – Heather Wilson, a former US Air Force Officer and current congresswoman, is going to run regardless. She has a good shot against Bingaman, but a great shot vs. an open seat.
Loss after Retirement or Death - Robert Byrd of West Virginia – Unless the former Klansman dies, he’ll probably retire. Although I’m hoping for the former, Shelley Capito (R), a moderate republican, should win in a state trending red. She’ll have to duke it out with two young conservative democratic congressmen, but she should pull it out.
Loss - Maria Cantwell of Washington – Although liberal whackjob and fellow Washington senator Patty Murray makes Cantwell look conservative, she is completely out of touch with those outside of Seattle. Republican George Nethercutt’s campaign against Murray caught on late, but the giant killer (he beat the unbeatable Tom Foley 10 years ago) has recently stated he’s considering “pulling a Thune” and running against Cantwell. Nethercutt will win in 2006. Guaranteed.
Win - Thomas Carper of Delaware – Safe
Loss - Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York – Rudy Giuliani WILL BEAT HER! In fact, there’s even a possibility that she resigns in 2006 to run for President in 2008 if she feels Rudy has a chance of winning. If that’s the case, Rudy easily beats AG Spitzer.
Win, but I don’t under stand why - Kent Conrad of North Dakota – How many years behind South Dakota is North Dakota politically. Both are HEAVILY RED states that elect two democrats to panhandle for farm subsidies. Conrad doesn’t have Dorgan’s political clout in D.C, so if popular – and just re-elected, Governor Hoeven decides to run, he could win. But I think he likes sitting in the Governor’s chair.
Loss - John Corzine of New Jersey – Backlash Alert! The backlash against McGAYvey will break the democratic political machine in Jersey. Corzine will be the first victim.
Loss - Mark Dayton of Minnesota – The already-vulnerable Dayton is now a laughingstock after fleeing D.C. last month due to concern over terrorism. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, no bastion of conservative thought, called Dayton "Cassandra," a "flake" and a "little chicken." Up-and-coming Conservative Rep. Mark Kennedy has been foaming at the mouth to take out Dayton since his friend Norm Coleman won a senate seat two years ago.
Loss after retirement - Dianne Feinstein of California – The gun-grabbin’ grandma will probably retire in 2006, and the Republicans will have a competitive primary between Rep. Issa, grassroots superstar Tom McCLintock, and National Security Advisor Condi Rice may all throw their hats in. Tom has stated he is already preparing for a run for Lt. Governor in 2006 instead, but we shall see. If Condi Rice runs, which I expect, Condi the Moderate will ride the Governator’s moderate coattails during his Gubernatorial campaign. Another reason why I think that the GOP will pick up this seat if Feinstein retires is that the Democrats will be throwing everything they have to defeat Arnie, leaving the senate seat ripe for the picking. An Arnie-Condi-Tom ticket could sweep the GOP back into prominence in the Golden State.
Win, even if he retires - Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts – Even if Teddy retires, it won’t be much of an improvement with gay icon Rep. Barney Frank in his seat. Gov. Romney could win the open seat, but I believe he’s eying the White House (which he will not win).
Loss after Retirement - Herb Kohl of Wisconsin – Rumors are a-flyin’ that Kohl will retire and HUD Secretary and former Gov. Tommy Thompson will run for his seat and take it.
Win - Joe Lieberman of Connecticut – It may sound strange, but keeping a moderate anchor in the Democratic Party in the senate is a good thing for this country.
Loss - Bill Nelson of Florida – You heard it here first: Jeb Bush will run for the Senate in 2006 and win. His Governor's seat is up that year too, so Jeb will decide to follow in his grandpappy's footsteps and become a Senator. I've heard is a bit of a policy wonk so he sounds great for the Senate. What's more, having Jeb in the senate is like keeping a spare tire in the trunk. If the wheels fall off the GOP in the 2008 election, we have an EXCELLENT "spare candidate" waiting in the wings in the senate for 2012.
Win - Ben Nelson of Nebraska – Nebraskans love having two moderates hugging the center from both sides.
Loss, even if he retires- Paul Sarbanes of Maryland – “The Man of Steele” will win. LT. Gov. Michael Steele, the black conservative who wowed so many at the convention, will run in 2006 for the Senate AND WIN. He was going to run against Sen. Mikulski this year, but the Governor asked him to wait. Steele has strongly hinted he will run in 2006.
Win - Debbie Stabenow of Michigan – A crappy candidate, but there’s little competition right now.
Dems retain 8, lose 9.
Independent (1) Previous %
Win, but we won’t pick up the seat - Jim Jeffords of Vermont – probable democratic pick-up in a very liberal state.
So, what does this all add up to? Well, the GOP will pick up 5 Seats for the second election in a row, the democrats will lose four, and Jeffords will either (1) become a Democrat or (2) lose.
That will put the Senate at 60-40 GOP. I feel very confident in this number because the GOP seats I picked to lose aren’t extremely weak, but merely vulnerable. Many people will vehemently disagree with my pick that BOTH New England RINOs up for reelection in 2006 will lose, that the majority leader will retire and the Democrats will take the seat, and that Rick Santorum will out and out lose. I’m also assuming that Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) will win, even though he’s definitely beatable and may even retire. I’m also assuming that Mitt Romney will not run for Teddy Kennedy’s seat if he were to die or retire. So technically, the GOP could get as many as 65 seats and should pick up at least 2 or 3 seats at a minimum. It’s pretty simple: in 2006 the Democrats have far more vulnerable seats than the GOP. The Democrats also have far more potential retirements than we do.
But there could there be a downturn to such a bright future in 2006??? Yes. If the GOP expects to make massive gains in 2006, there’s a chance that they will hold off on stronger, more controversial legislation until they get above 60 votes. They can then pass many of the historic pieces of legislation that we all want: Social Security privatization, Fundamental Tax Reform, Major Tort Reform (although I expect tort reform this spring), etc. So we could see the 109th Congress as nothing more than setting the stage for the 110th. The next two years will still be critical, however, as we may see MULTIPLE Supreme Court appointments.
- Remember Salamis
As far as Tennessee goes, the Democrats may not nominate Harold Ford Jr, but what about Reps. Jim Cooper or Lincoln Davis? I imagine one of them could give us some trouble.
Ford poses as a moderate Rat but he's basically a liberal. Plus, he's from Memphis. He couldn't win statewide.
Excellent analysis - I agree largely because I believe that they won't change. To me, they're like drug addicts, hooked on the narcotics of socialism/communism, anti-Americanism and elitism. Already we're seeing the Dims thinking that once again, their problem is that they didn't get their message out. So they're still clinging to their tattered fantasy of an America consisting of a huge "silent majority" of far left radicals, cowed into not speaking out by legions of frothing Bible-bangin' ignoramuses who've been whipped into a orgy of hate by Chimpy Bushitler.
It's so much easier for them to believe they were foully done in by an evil idiot savant leading a bunch of toothless hayseeds into voting against their own best interests. This way they don't have to face the fact that their playbook is old and worn out, their message and spokespersons are repulsive to average Americans, their ideas (what they have of those) are stale and already proven to be utter failures. They can claim everyone else is an easily misled idiot, and cling to their illusion of moral and intellectual superiority.
The democrats will continue to marginalize themselves as they become increasingly shrill and paranoid and anti-American, to the point where they will openly be the party of the ultra-rich trust-funders, the trial lawyers, the jihadists, the Hollywood degenerates and the professional victim lobbies. And until a large number of the old party apparatchiks die off, they'll be consigned to significant minority status.
But they'll feel really good about themselves as they spew their bile and hatred.
The last time they nominated Cooper in '94, he went down in flames, though I'm sure he'd like to be a Senator (which his much-more Conservative daddy (Gov. Prentice Cooper) was denied by Gore, Sr. back in 1958), but I still think he's a tad too liberal. Lincoln Davis might be a good choice for them, but he may be too Conservative for the nomination. His reelection campaign made you believe he was a Conservative Republican. The question is whether or not all 3 (Ford, Cooper & Davis) decide to jump into the fray and bloody each other for the nomination. At this point, it is ours to lose.
Why wouldn't Rudy prefer running for governor? He's an aggressive executive type guy, not a passive deliberator. And the governor's chair in Albany is a better launch pad for an eventual presidential campaign than a Senate seat.
It's a sad state of affairs when simply being patriotic can move a Democrat from the "liberal" to the "moderate" column.
Perhaps, it would be best to think of Democrats like Lieberman and Bayh as "patriotic liberals" rather than "moderates".
She and her husband adopted a child and that has a big influence on her wanting to come home.
I remember you! Where you been?
No way.
I cannot stand Ford. He smiles but the eyes can't hide what's in his soul and it's not good.
Who, me ? I've been here. I know your handle, too... So are we friends or foes ? :-P
"Perhaps, it would be best to think of Democrats like Lieberman and Bayh as "patriotic liberals" rather than "moderates".
-- Classic NeoConservatives before their conversion. I'm thinking Irv Kristol, Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, and other "liberal hawks" who dies out in the 1970s.
In fact, I owuldn't be surpised if KBH is nudged out of the Senate and into the Governor's house just to make room for Bonilla. The GOP would be completely insane NOT to put a popular conservative hispanic in the Senate. Bonilla has an excellent conservative voting record too.
I like your analysis overall, but:
"Loss - John Corzine of New Jersey – Backlash Alert! The backlash against McGAYvey will break the democratic political machine in Jersey. Corzine will be the first victim."
Heh. There doesn't appear to be any such thing as "backlash" for New Jersey Democrats. These are the people who voted for Lautenberg -after- being put on the ticket illegally, remember? And they voted for Kerry -after- the debacles of both Lautenberg and McGreevey. No, I'd strike this one off your list as anything like a sure bet. Especially when you take into consideration that other than a couple of good House members (Chris Smith rocks), the Republican party in New Jersey is effectively a dummy corporation set up by the Democrats to make sure they are never seriously opposed. There is no such thing as a Republican in New Jersey who might run for that election with anything resembling name recognition, either, at least that I know of.
Qwinn
Corzine will win. JErsey is a Dem state.
If Bush pushes for amnesty for illegals and Specter is on th Judiciary comm - the Republicans will lose seats in the Senate.
It looks like Bush is already in "screw the base" mode with his plan for amnesty for illegals (criminals).
Besides Corzine, who the majority here think will retain, I would say Republicans picking up WhineSwine's seat here in "Kal-ee-for-nee-yah" is a medical-marijuana hallucination. The Republican party here in the Golden State are about as unified and organized as a room full of cats.
With GWB winning 30 states in 2000 and 31 this time, it's not surprising that the Senate will continue to trend Republican.
The rallying cry should be: "60 in '06"
The most effective launch pad for any '08 bid would be to take on Hillary and win. As of right now, Hillary is the Dims leading candidate for '08 and will most likely remain that way until the primaries. For either Pataki or Rudy to knock off their top candidate would earn them major points within the GOP rank and file. Barring a Hillary scalping, Rudy and Pataki have slim to no chance of earning the GOP '08 nomination due to their liberal stands on social issues.
A similar situation occurred here in Massachusetts back in '96 when Weld took on Kerry. It was said at the time that the winner of the race would be presidential ticket material. Kerry's win effectively finished off Weld as any kind of national contender and established Kerry as a potential VP candidate in '00 (some say he was runner up to Lieberman for the '00 VP slot) and eventual nominee in '04.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.