We're Still Campaigning in Louisiana: Show Us Some Love!

[StJacques]

Naturally we are all pumped after the President's BIG WIN yesterday, but I wanted to drop a note to let you all know that the 2004 campaign has not ended in Louisiana. We are on a roll here however; Bush outpolled Kerry 57% - 42%, we elected our first Republican Senator since the Reconstruction Era in David Vitter, and we have secured four of five congressional seats that have been decided across the state for the Republican Party, including our newly-elected star Bobby Jindal. But there are still two congressional races that remain to be settled and the leading vote-getters in each of the first round "primaries" - which was yesterday's General Election for the rest of you - were Republicans. In Louisiana's Third Congressional District, where Billy Tauzin, Jr. is retiring, his son Billy Tauzin, III led a field of six candiates with 32% of the total vote and will face Democrat Charlie Melancon of Napoleonville, who finished second with 24%. In our Seventh Congressional District - where I live - Republican Charles Boustany, Jr. finished ahead of four other opponents, to place first with 36% of the total vote and will face Democrat Willie Landry Mount (female) who trailed at 25%. I think the outlook is very good for Tauzin to hold on to his father's seat and keep it for the GOP, since the three Republicans running in that race compiled a total of 59% of the vote between them, while Boustany will be locked in a duel to take away the seat Democrat Chris John left to make his unsuccessful run for the Senate against Vitter. We could use some help.

As I stated earlier I rate Billy Tauzin III's chances of winning his father's seat to be pretty good. But I suppose nothing is ever certain in Louisiana politics and I expect his opponent's campaign to come down to two words -- sugar cane. Charlie Melancon will follow the well-established formula of scaring the sugar cane farmers in the third congressional district, something that worked well for Senator Mary Landrieu in 2002 and Kathleen Blanco last year when she beat out Bobby Jindal to win the Governor's job. But I don't think it will fly this time around since Tauzin will benefit from his father's long-standing partnership with the sugar industry. So if you are interested in helping him you can go here:

Help Billy Tauzin

Of greater interest in my opinion is Charles Boustany's attempt to take the seventh congressional district seat away from the Democrats. I believe Boustany should be considered the favorite, but the logic may not jump out at anyone who views the results from yesterday's voting. Boustany and David Thibodaux, the two Republicans running for the seat, collectively garnered 46% of the total vote in the district, while Willie Landry Mount and the two other Democrats combined for 54%. The mathematics would therefore seem to favor Mount, if you overlook the fact that she trailed Boustany by 11% of all votes cast. But there are two other factors that I believe will work against Mount. The first is that she took a lot of help from the Democratic House Campaign Committee during the earlier part of the campaign and, as a result, has cast herself in the mold of a Democrat running on the typical national agenda. She has accused Boustany of wanting to tax the middle class to help the rich, seeking to privatize Social Security, failing to understand the problems of working families, and so on and so on. I think you get the picture. Those ads may have helped her make the runoff, but the views expressed within them do not fly here in southwest, which is very strong Bush country. Mount is going to have to run away from the very ideas she put forth to make this runoff if she is going to have any chance to win. The second factor that weighs in against Mount is George Bush's popularity in the seventh congressional district. Let me put up a table for you to examine to get a look at just how strong Bush was in yesterday's vote in the eight parishes - we have no counties in Louisiana - comprising the district:

Presidential Vote in Louisiana's Seventh Congressional District*

Parish	Vote for Bush	% for Bush	Vote for Kerry	% for Kerry
Acadia	16,083	64%	8,937	35%
Calcasieu	46,058	58%	32,844	41%
Cameron	3,190	69%	1,367	29%
Evangeline	8,361	58%	5,756	40%
Jefferson Davis	8,064	61%	4,845	37%
Lafayette	57,730	64%	31,205	35%
St. Landry	18,314	50%	18,162	49%
Vermillion	15,069	61%	9083	37%
Totals	172,869	60%	112,189	39%

* There were seven other minor candidates on the Louisiana presidential ballot whose results were negligible in the district, but whose total vote may account for some parish percentages adding up to less than 100%

As you should be able to see from the above table, the seat for which Charles Boustany is currently running lies within an area where Republican support is strong. The district went 60% - 39% for Bush while the state as a whole went 57% - 42%, which makes it a strong Republican area. So Boustany's chances should look pretty good, especially when you consider that a very popular President Bush is expected to come down to campaign for Boustany, along with Dick Cheney, who we anticipate to make a couple of trips. Boustany's chances of taking this seat away from the Dems are very good. Boustany is pro-life, which is a popular position here in Catholic southwest Louisiana, he is an accomplished heart surgeon, and comes from a distinguished family of long standing in Lafayette, Louisiana. If you can help Charles Boustany, it may make a difference:

Help Charles Boustany

Guys, if you can help out, it will be wonderful. If you can't, then keep your fingers crossed for us. Come December 4, which is the runoff election day, we intend to add two more Republican seats to make what is currently a +2 win for us in the House into a +4 and to secure six of the seven congressional seats in Louisiana for the good guys. It will be a wonderful cap to a very successful election campaign.

[shiva]

Stay with it!! We L-O-V-E You !!!*Smooch*

[Toespi]

Air Kiss!!!

[rineaux]

Not sure where you are, but my sister called me from NO and told me they had, as she put it, woodstock type hippies at Lee Circle protesting the election and holding up signs saying Bush is not my president.

She and a friend kept circling around yelling 4 more years and Bush wins. Said they were &%#*# off.

[deport]

Thanks for your analysis...... Adding to your info I have included the following breakouts which begs the question.....

Can the Boustany Campaign make enough inroads into the combined Democrat group to pull this out? I hope so and it may also be that the Cravins / Mount groups may have antagonized each other enough so that Cravins / Carriere supporters won't cross over in sufficient numbers to give the win to Mount......

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Louisiana Secretary of State
Election Results by Parish-Unofficial
Results for Election Date: 11/02/04
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District

11/03/2004 21.18.17

Parish	Charles Boustany, Jr.	Malcolm R. Carriere	"Don" Cravins	Willie Landry Mount	David Thibodaux
Acadia, 63 of 63 Click here for Results by Precinct	10,900	447	6,336	4,470	2,666
Calcasieu, 118 of 118 Click here for Results by Precinct	23,972	1,116	9,224	39,250	4,507
Cameron, 13 of 13 Click here for Results by Precinct	1,281	139	363	2,130	466
Evangeline, 41 of 41 Click here for Results by Precinct	2,306	282	3,239	1,208	851
Jefferson Davis, 45 of 45 Click here for Results by Precinct	4,220	353	1,918	4,398	1,213
Lafayette, 121 of 121 Click here for Results by Precinct	42,336	1,652	23,207	8,729	11,302
St. Landry, 95 of 95 Click here for Results by Precinct	11,320	488	17,864	3,807	2,525
Vermilion, 62 of 62 Click here for Results by Precinct	9,291	703	5,056	5,048	2,967

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U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District 558 of 558 precincts reporting Click here for Results by Parish
105,626	39%	Charles Boustany, Jr., R	-
5,180	2%	Malcolm R. Carriere, D	-
67,207	25%	"Don" Cravins, D	-
69,040	25%	Willie Landry Mount, D	-
26,497	10%	David Thibodaux, R	-

Louisiana did well this time with the election of Vitter / Jindal and the others.

[Clintonfatigued]

District 3

84,661 32% W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R
63,190 24% "Charlie" Melancon, D
61,119 23% Craig Romero, R
25,782 10% Damon J. Baldone, D
19,327 7% Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi, D
10,325 4% Kevin D. Chiasson, R

[StJacques]

". . . Can the Boustany Campaign make enough inroads into the combined Democrat group to pull this out? I hope so and it may also be that the Cravins / Mount groups may have antagonized each other enough so that Cravins / Carriere supporters won't cross over in sufficient numbers to give the win to Mount. . . ."

Yes; I am convinced Boustany can win this race. Cravins was the African-American candidate and probably had little chance to win the seat in a runoff, so the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee intervened with LOTS of ads to help Mount make the cut. But if you look at the vote totals you posted you will see that, even with all of the help Mount received, she made the runoff with less than a 1% margin of victory over Cravins. Many of Cravins' supporters are not happy about this and I believe Mount will have trouble energizing the African-American vote on her behalf. She can't "play the race card" because it won't fly with the African-American voters in southwest Louisiana to begin with - though St. Landry Parish may be an exception - and it would only antagonize the white voters she needs to win anyway. I also do not expect the Democratic base to become enthused either. I rate Boustany's chances as very good for these reasons, to which I may add that he should be able to run a better-financed campaign.

[Clintonfatigued]

District 7

105,626 39% Charles Boustany, Jr., R
69,040 25% Willie Landry Mount, D
67,207 25% "Don" Cravins, D
26,497 10% David Thibodaux, R
5,180 2% Malcolm R. Carriere, D

[StJacques]

Yeah, I've got my percentage addition for the Republicans a little off. It's not really 49% as the figures you posted suggest, it's more like 48%, check the addition of the totals listed and you come to 101%, but the Dems did reach 52%.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Boustany, the Catholic from Acadiana, will beat Mount, the Protestant from Lake Charles. That's the way it has always been in the 7th CD. But I certainly encourage FReepers to help Boustany out to make sure he gets his message out.

In the 3rd CD, I have to assume that Tauzin's son will be endorsed by Romero and that would be that. It's a shame that Romero barely missed out on making the run-off; a run-off between two Republicans in what used to be a Democrat stronghold would have been great.

[deport]

Thanks for your insight..... I certainly hope you are correct.

[Clemenza]

Bad news: Washington voters decided yesterday to adopt the Cajun primary system. :-(

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Bad news: Washington voters decided yesterday to adopt the Cajun primary system. :-("

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I hate that Louisiana "jungle primary" format, and believe it to be an infringement upon the freedom of speech and association of members of political parties. I think that just as the "blanket primary" formerly used in Washington was declared unconstitutional last year (or maybe earlier this year), the jungle primary could be struck down by the Ninth Circuit, which would be following its blanket primary precedent, and since the case would surely get appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, it could eventually result in the Louisiana primary being declared unconstitutional as well.

BTW, didn't Governor Locke veto a bill earlier this year that would have established a jungle primary because he was afraid that it would get struck down by the courts? So they adopted it by referendum instead, huh? I hope Locke's instincts were correct and the jungle primary does get overturned.