[deport]

Thanks for your analysis...... Adding to your info I have included the following breakouts which begs the question.....

Can the Boustany Campaign make enough inroads into the combined Democrat group to pull this out? I hope so and it may also be that the Cravins / Mount groups may have antagonized each other enough so that Cravins / Carriere supporters won't cross over in sufficient numbers to give the win to Mount......

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Louisiana Secretary of State
Election Results by Parish-Unofficial
Results for Election Date: 11/02/04
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District

11/03/2004 21.18.17

Parish	Charles Boustany, Jr.	Malcolm R. Carriere	"Don" Cravins	Willie Landry Mount	David Thibodaux
Acadia, 63 of 63 Click here for Results by Precinct	10,900	447	6,336	4,470	2,666
Calcasieu, 118 of 118 Click here for Results by Precinct	23,972	1,116	9,224	39,250	4,507
Cameron, 13 of 13 Click here for Results by Precinct	1,281	139	363	2,130	466
Evangeline, 41 of 41 Click here for Results by Precinct	2,306	282	3,239	1,208	851
Jefferson Davis, 45 of 45 Click here for Results by Precinct	4,220	353	1,918	4,398	1,213
Lafayette, 121 of 121 Click here for Results by Precinct	42,336	1,652	23,207	8,729	11,302
St. Landry, 95 of 95 Click here for Results by Precinct	11,320	488	17,864	3,807	2,525
Vermilion, 62 of 62 Click here for Results by Precinct	9,291	703	5,056	5,048	2,967

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U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District 558 of 558 precincts reporting Click here for Results by Parish
105,626	39%	Charles Boustany, Jr., R	-
5,180	2%	Malcolm R. Carriere, D	-
67,207	25%	"Don" Cravins, D	-
69,040	25%	Willie Landry Mount, D	-
26,497	10%	David Thibodaux, R	-

Louisiana did well this time with the election of Vitter / Jindal and the others.

[StJacques]

". . . Can the Boustany Campaign make enough inroads into the combined Democrat group to pull this out? I hope so and it may also be that the Cravins / Mount groups may have antagonized each other enough so that Cravins / Carriere supporters won't cross over in sufficient numbers to give the win to Mount. . . ."

Yes; I am convinced Boustany can win this race. Cravins was the African-American candidate and probably had little chance to win the seat in a runoff, so the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee intervened with LOTS of ads to help Mount make the cut. But if you look at the vote totals you posted you will see that, even with all of the help Mount received, she made the runoff with less than a 1% margin of victory over Cravins. Many of Cravins' supporters are not happy about this and I believe Mount will have trouble energizing the African-American vote on her behalf. She can't "play the race card" because it won't fly with the African-American voters in southwest Louisiana to begin with - though St. Landry Parish may be an exception - and it would only antagonize the white voters she needs to win anyway. I also do not expect the Democratic base to become enthused either. I rate Boustany's chances as very good for these reasons, to which I may add that he should be able to run a better-financed campaign.