Dick Morris: Those Faulty Exit Polls Were Sabotage

The Hill ^ | November 3, 2004 | Dick Morris

[quidnunc]

By now it is well-known and a part of the 2004 election lore how the exit polls by the major television networks were wrong.

Likely this faux pas will assume its place among wartime stories alongside the mistaken calls on Florida’s vote for one side and then for the other in the 2000 election. But the inaccuracies of the media’s polling deserve more scrutiny and investigation.

Exit polls are almost never wrong. They eliminate the two major potential fallacies in survey research by correctly separating actual voters from those who pretend they will cast ballots but never do and by substituting actual observation for guesswork in judging the relative turnout of different parts of the state.

So reliable are the surveys that actually tap voters as they leave the polling places that they are used as guides to the relative honesty of elections in Third World countries. When I worked on Vicente Fox’s campaign in Mexico, for example, I was so fearful that the governing PRI would steal the election that I had the campaign commission two U.S. firms to conduct exit polls to be released immediately after the polls closed to foreclose the possibility of finagling with the returns. When the polls announced a seven-point Fox victory, mobs thronged the streets in a joyous celebration within minutes that made fraud in the actual counting impossible.

But this Tuesday, the networks did get the exit polls wrong. Not just some of them. They got all of the Bush states wrong. So, according to ABC-TV’s exit polls, for example, Kerry was slated to carry Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa, all of which Bush carried. The only swing state the network had going to Bush was West Virginia, which the president won by 10 points.

-snip-

[knews_hound]

"This is how "exit polling" is being used -- to influence the vote. No other reason."

I could not agree more.

Furthermore, I have to ask a fundamental question.

Why do these type of polls exists period?

It is because the News Media, in its never ending quest to have something to say, anything to say, have created this "need" to have exit polls.

It is a classic case of fulfilling a need that is generated not by the desires of a demanding public, but rather it is an Industry driven need that is not in the public interest.

It is long past time to eliminate this toxic and subversive practice once and for all.

Cheers,

knews hound

[Tall_Texan]

You'd think those media idiots would have got a clue when MISSISSIPPI wasn't polled as going for Bush.

Mississippi.

Any way in hell the good folks in Mississippi would elect a Massachusetts liberal?

The only way it could have been more of a red flag indicator that something was wrong would be if the exit polls in Mississippi endorsed gay marriage.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

I wonder if the FCC/FEC shouldn't have a say in this.

[TigersEye]

I suspect the MSM was in cahoots with the Demonrats on this.

It sure looks like it.

[Resolute]

Last week Morris admitted on the Neal Boortz program that as a political advisor to Dems, he met weekly with editorial boards of main stream news to shape editorial policy.

[vrwc1]

I don't buy the argument that the polls were tilted Democrate intentionally for the purpose of supressing Republican turnout in the later time zones. If that were the case, why didn't the MSM finish the job and call FL, VA, and the Carolinas for Kerry right away after closing as the exit polls indicated?

Because they got burned so bad last election by calling Florida early that there was no way in hell they would call any state before getting some "real" numbers to validate the exit poll numbers.

[nonliberal]

I have worked on several campaigns and those who have been in the "blood and guts" of a campaign know how exit polls can be manipulated and are essentially worthless.

There is a reason that the MSM was doing them but the candidates weren't. Those things are unreliable.

The only time pollsters make news is if the polls change, or in the case of this election, stay the same, so they cook them.

[TigersEye]

The only way it could have been more of a red flag indicator that something was wrong would be if the exit polls in Mississippi endorsed gay marriage.

That's one way these exit polls can be further checked for evidence of fraud and collusion. Examine them to see how accurate they were on other races and ballot issues. If they more accurately reflect the final results of those then something really stinks.

[Doctor Stochastic]

Exit polls are almost never wrong.

That would be true were the poll conducted over a whole day. When exit polls are used to monitor accuracy, they are sampled all day. This poll was time-stratified and thus not a representative sample. The polling corporation should have known that. (So should the press, but the press isn't that smart.)

[TigersEye]

To screw up one exit poll is unheard of. To miss six of them is incredible.

Apparently you completely disagree with Dick Morris.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Military discharge papers. The number of the form is DD214. It tells you the circumstances of separation from the service. Anything other than "honorable" is not good.

Thanks.

[bobsunshine]

Well here is my take on the story;

I believe what Dick Morris said is true. Someone (MSM?) wanted to sway us to think that it was all over and Kerry would win.

But, I figured the exit polls were wrong because every time I saw President Bush at a rally, there were 1000's of people. When I saw Kerry, there wasn't that many. Even when C-Span would show some of the rallies, Bush was mostly shown with the huge crowd. Kerry was shown closeup, so you didn't see the small crowds.

And with Hannity on the road, I figured it was wrong. So, who benefited from this skew? The Market Traders and betters? On Tradesports, Bush numbers fell from 54 to 28 by 7pm (EST). By the end of the night, Bush was up to 91. So if you "placed your bet" for Bush around 7pm and figured the exit polls were wrong, well the rest is history.

But all in all, they should outlaw exit polls at least until the polls close. I think the MSM "trick" blew up just like the NYSlimes story on the missing explosives.

God Bless America and George W. Bush !!!

[Nick Danger]

irect me to the photo gallery please?

http://www.freeper.org/album.

[konaice]

Quote:
"The dummies are claiming that the exit polls were the true result and that the vote count was a fraud. Rove had the vote machines rigged for Bush. (Please don't shoot, I'm only posting what the DUers are saying)"

No shots from me....
I have no doubt they are saying this, and some of them actually believe it. But deep in thier heart they know they were behind going into Tuesday by every measure there was.

The ONLY indication they were ahead were these lame exit polls that Morris thinks were rigged. Personally I don't trust Morris enough to believe him, he was hopelessly wrong on the 2002 midterms.

[Yaelle]

And the Prez is such a mensch that he actually thanked the media for their coverage of the campaign. Now, after what they kept trying to do to him, that is CLASS.

[WoofDog123]

Obviusly I don't agree with everything drudge carries as headlines, or hurricane news (even if I am only 45 miles from him sometimes), etc, but to his credit, he CARRIES STORIES others will not touch, usually for apparently political reasons relating to their own networks political agendas. In fact, he seems pretty equal-opportunity about the stories he carries.

He carried swift boat vet stories. It is hard to estimate how much his coverage of them augmented their eventual impact.

[MistrX]

"The game's a foot!" said Dickie Morris.

"The foot's a game!"

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

Big Ol' Bump.

[Tunehead54]

reminder bump for the am. ;-)