Posted on 11/03/2004 6:14:10 PM PST by boris
A vanity thread. I've been saying the Israelis have been restrained by Washington from taking out the Iranian reactors until 'after the elections.'
Now I am willing to call (two) shots:
Boris says (a) 25% probability that they will hit the Iranian sites within a week; (b) 90% chance before 2004 comes to an end.
Right now I think 50/50 that it will be a joint attack with the U.S. versus going alone.
Any other freepers with crystal balls welcome to participate.
--Boris
Don't count on it. I think people are grossly overestimating the shift in balance of power that's going to happen. Israel's leadership is in no way prepared to do something like this. I wouldn't count on seeing something like this -ever- initiated by Israel in the next 4 years.
Don't count on it. I think people are grossly overestimating the shift in balance of power that's going to happen. Israel's leadership is in no way prepared to do something like this. I wouldn't count on seeing something like this -ever- initiated by Israel in the next 4 years.
I was going to say by the end of the year, but I think sooner is more likely. Due to this whole Arafat thing. Once they hear he is about to go, they strike. It will be "lost" in all the gushing over Arafat's death.
Bush win is a green light...
On the way back from bombing Iran they can bomb Mecca for me. Hell, we Americans are paying for the Israeli Airforce's gas bill...they can do us a favor.
Israel should not do this. Let the US do it if it comes to that and let the US take the heat.
Thats a very sticky situation.
US and Israeli strikes? I don tknow...sound way to...well it wouldnt be good.
But then again, Israel going alone would suck for them..and the US going alone would suck for us.
Either way we'll (and or they'll) get an insane amount of flak for it.
Another revolt against president bush for sure.
I support it of course, but...idk if it'll happen so soon
The US will probably attempt to partner with the West Europeans and make diplomatic overtures to Iran. We will first attempt to get IAEA involvement, and find a "peaceful" way of resolving the conflict.
The US spent a year moving to go to war against Iraq, including going to the UN. Eliminating Iran as a nuclear threat won't in a "provocative" measure such as striking Iran with Israel.
I wish the US would just blow up the Iranian reactors, but I just doubt it will happen.
The Iranian sites are hardened and crawling with AA missiles. A joint strike would have a better chance of success...
--Boris
If joint, it won't be public. Israel will strike when it is time to.
alot of the facility is underground.
I think they will go with sanctions first. all of this filling of the strategic petroleum reserve even with high oil prices and supply fears - that's not for nothing. there will be an oil embargo of Iran.
Given the results of this election, the Iranians might suddenly see the light of reason for themselves. I believe they've been holding on to see just which way the wind was going to set. It's hard to bluff your enemies from a position of weakness, but once you've shown yourself to be strong and resolute, it's amazing how tractable those enemies can be.
"we'll (and or they'll) get an insane amount of flak for it."
Well, better to be on the receiving end of the flak than of nukes. And of course, it would be still better if the whole situation has not happened. But as His Excellency the Vice President was quoted saying in this context: "one has to do a cautious and prudent thing"
Strikes might not accomplish much if Iran's got everything in deep bunkers.
It's a mission for the B2. Probably the only aircraft that could survive and carry the proper ordnance to do the job. Stealth Fighter lacks the payload. Any fighter-bombers would have to come in on the deck to avoid the heavy SAMS; losses to AAA and MANPADS would be inevitable.
IMHO, we can't subcontract this to the Israelis and still expect our skirts to be clean. The IAF would have to overfly Iraq. We will be held to account for that, so we may as well do the job ourselves.
Eid-al-Fitr: The birth of moon is on November 12, 2004, at 14:28 Universal Time, i.e. 9:28am Eastern Standard Time - or 6:28am Pacific Standard Time. On November 12, the moon could not be seen anywhere on earth, with a possible exception of limited Polynesian Islands where telescope will be required to see. This moon will be 10 hours old on West coast of USA on November 12 and sets almost with sunset. On November 13, it can be seen in Australia, South Asia, Africa, and Americas. On November 13, it cannot be seen in Europe and most of Asia, and Japan. On November 14, it will be seen in England, Europe, and Japan.
A strike on Eid, a new moon for tactical considerations, and a strike on Islam's holy day for payback, and surprise.
Nov. 12th it is.
It's a new game now with the Bush re-election.
Israel has already purchased weapons specific to the task.
Arabrat's imminent death will be an excellent opportunity.
The stakes are too high for Israel to wait.
I agree it will be very, very soon.
What's less certain is the response from Iran and other local terror states, not to mention their puppetmaster China.
They may not have four years. Nor may we. Nuclear weapons in the hands of irrational fanatics is not a pretty thing to contemplate. Remember Iran supports suicide bombers, it's a very small step to committing nuclear hari-kari to eliminate the hated Jews and punish the great Satan at the same time.
Never forget: our greatest mistake on 9/11 was underestimating the other guys irrationality.
Of course that's just wild speculation based on another earlier FR thread on the subject. Pretty much, US military air traffic and Command and Control facilities in Iraq, Turkey, the UAE, and carrier fleet would have to simultaneously randomly misfunction to allow Israel a window to attack, without the US being involved. Telling the world such an event happened would take cajones of steel. Powell could make it his farewell performance.
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