Posted on 11/03/2004 9:25:29 AM PST by finnman69
Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:
“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.
“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side."
(more from Zogby coming soon…)
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Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2
Thanks for posting that citation. End result - Zogby missed - by a lot.
Sadly, most won't. Zogby pulls something like this every election (including releasing "final numbers" on the afternoon of Election Day) and yet half of Freepers consider him a reliable pollster.
Zogby...don't quit your day job.
Oops, I mean...um...sorry. Have a nice day.
Zogby this morning: "JFK actually had the 311 electoral votes before he lost them."
Actually, Gallup's FINAL poll was not that bad. It is ONLY their manual
TWEAKING that got them into trouble. They ALLOCATED 90% of the undecided
to Kerry, based on a very small history of past elections.
IF they had allocated them per Pat Caddell and others who contend that
in Presidential Elections, that Undecideds break 60/40 for the INCUMBENT
then Gallup would have been VERY VERY accurate!
Gallup's FINAL poll
Likely voters (unallocated)
49 Bush
47 Kerry
1 Nader
3 Undecided
Final Gallup estimate (with undecided vote allocated) [90% to Kerry]
49 Bush
49 Kerry
2 Nader
--
How Gallup SHOULD have allocated the undecideds - 60/40 to the INCUMBENT
51 Bush
48 Kerry
1 Nader
--
So much for his "Special Sauce."
He calls this the "Armageddon Election?"
Maybe for Zogby this is Armageddon....I hope so!
Quite a pattern of being wrong there. Overestimating Kerry's support across the board.
“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got."
Bush 51% 58,527,956
Kerry 48% 54,992,753 diff - 3,535,203
EV 286 - 252 diff - 34
and all the Senate pickups
it really was not so close, if it was reversed it would have been called at Midnight - w/ the chant of MANDATE in the air.
**(according to the latest Zogby poll)
"Hey... I'm a freaking tool, all right? What else did you really expect from me, for pete's sake...?" :)
ZOGBY BEAT DOWN BUMP!
Which begs the question: how can something so "accurate" be so completely and utterly WRONG?
Idiot.
John Zogby-I was right before I was wrong in 2004
Being within the margin of error in a few states is one thing, but being on the wrong side of the margin each time is another.
Zogby went out fo his way to spin his data but I found the final day manipulation using exit polls to be utterly unethical and unprofessional.
he's on the way to Arafats hospital bed
Your bit yesterday, with the lib reading the talking points (Ok, go ahead, you're on now), where she re-read the same stinking talking points 4 times, was CLASSIC.
Keep up the great work, we appreciate all you do...
By the way, thanks for not letting Mr. Koch get away with his filibuster argument.
You're awesome.
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