Kerry Spot: MORE COMING, BUT HERE'S SOME ANALYSIS

Kerry Spot NRO ^ | 11/01 04:58 PM | jim geraghty

[LS]

OH: 47.12% Kerry: 47.79%

This isn't right. I saw this the first time he did it. I think he means Bush 48.12%

[CyberCowboy777]

Little more from the same post...

Current best probability of a minimal Bush win in the Electoral College (FL, WI, NM): 94.57%
Current best probability of a minimal Kerry win in the Electoral College (OH, PA, FL): 0.69%

Bottom Line: Kerry's best shot a winning is to sweep the "Big 3:" PA, FL, OH. Currently, the chances of that happening — assuming that the poll averages are accurate — is less than 1%.

[CyberCowboy777]

I am assuming that is because he is using the Fox poll from this weekend?

[Bahbah]

Little bottle of champagne, you are not long for this world.

[SoCal Pubbie]

How can we be 64.43% sure Bush takes Ohio when the polls quoted show he's behind?

[Coop]

Lord help us.

CBS just called Florida for Kerry.

[Mike Fieschko]

I'm working on an hour-by-hour "what to expect on Election Night" feature for tomorrow, listing each state by the closing times.

Frequently Asked Questions About Voter Registration and Voting Q. When can I vote?

Your Election Night Viewer Guide [races to watch, by the Rothenburg Report, with poll closing times].

[Dog Gone]

Wow, that's even earlier than in 2000. The polls had nearly closed before they did that.

[LS]

Yeah, but then how could Bush possibly have a 64% probability of winning if he is BEHIND?

[StJacques]

". . . Lord help us. CBS just called Florida for Kerry."

I'll bet Dan Rather has his electoral map and call times already scripted.

[patton]

LOLOL

[CyberCowboy777]

Not sure... I am assuming that is because the Fox poll is heavy Democrat and they are adjusting it?

[TheExploited]

He has a typo in the 47.12. It is 48.12 or higher because Bush is narrowly ahead in most of the polls.

[cccellar]

Lord help us.
CBS just called Florida for Kerry.

You know this has me c0ncerned too....and on Chris Matthews Show, I tuned in late, but pretty sure that even Buchanan has said that Kerry will win. Anybody else see this?

[Coop]

I should be in bed. I have to get up at 0400. Gag!

Anybody got any chloroform for a rambunctious 3-year old?

Kidding! Just kidding...

[conservativepoet]

About as credible as those silly fake documents!

[StJacques]

"Yeah, but then how could Bush possibly have a 64% probability of winning if he is BEHIND?"

The figures listed are obviously in error LS. RealClearPolitics.com has the "averages" from their polls at Bush 48.1%, Kerry 47.3% in Ohio right now.

[SugarLandTexas]

You just have to wonder if Fox News ever buckles just a bit to show just how FAIR AND BALANCED it is. I mean, even Fred Barnes on with Brit Hume this evening said that the most current Fox poll was ridiculous and should have been thrown out. They polled 1) on the weekend; and 2) on Halloween. CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, CBS, PBS... none of those DNC tools feel the need to balance their takes on things. Fox is the one beacon we have... and I think they feel the need to overdo the "balance" stuff every now and then.

And for the love of God, would someone please break that stupid "electoral dry erase board" over Russert's head?

[hoosiermama]

Come on over, I've got a couple of big bottles of wine! I'll share!