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THREE GENERAL TRENDS (Generic Vote, Right/Wrong Track, Bush Job Approval)
RealClearPolitics ^ | 11/1/04 | Tom Bevan

Posted on 11/01/2004 9:52:00 AM PST by Cableguy

Where do things stand one day before the election? Very, very close. The national horse race numbers have gotten extremely tight, including a couple of polls in particular that don't bode well for President Bush. Gallup and Fox News (as of this morning) have shown movement toward John Kerry in the final days and now have the race dead even.

But as we've been loading all the various internal numbers from these polls into our averages I've gotten the sense there is another story, one which would seem on the surface to be much more in President Bush's favor.

Start with the generic Congressional vote. Right now the RCP Average has Republicans with a 0.5% advantage. If you track the change in each poll individually, with the exception of Gallup the movement seems to be favoring the GOP:

Generic Vote
Latest
Last
Net Chg
CNN/USAT/Gallup
Dem +1
(10/31)
GOP +3
(10/24)
Dem +4
NBC/WSJ
Dem +1
(10/31)
Dem +4
(9/19)
GOP +3
Battleground
GOP +2
(10/31)
Dem +1
( 10/28)
GOP +3
Newsweek
GOP +5
(10/29)
GOP+1
(10/22)
GOP +4
Democracy Corps (D)
Dem +2
(10/31)
Dem +9
(10/25)
GOP+7

In 2002, there was a dramatic move toward the GOP in the final days before the midterm election which was a harbinger of a big night for Republicans. This year the move is much smaller, and it isn't clear at all whether any favorable momentum in the generic congressional vote will benefit President Bush. It could very well be that Republicans have a good night on Tuesday in a lot of places - except at the top of the ticket. Nevertheless, movement toward the GOP is obviously more beneficial for President Bush than seeing the polls move against his party in the final days.

Now look at the latest right track/wrong track numbers:

Right Track/Wrong Track
Latest
Last
Net Chg
Marist
-8
(10/31)
-10
(10/19)
+2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (RV)
-9
(10/31)
-14
(10/14)
+5
NBC/WSJ
-6
(10/31)
-9
(10/18)
+3
CBS/NYT
-4
(10/30)
-18
( 10/17)
+14
Battleground
-11
(10/31)
-12
( 10/28)
+1
Newsweek
-17
(10/29)
-16
(10/22)
-1
Democracy Corps (D)
-6
(10/31)
-11
(10/25)
+5

With only one exception (Newsweek), the polls show people are generally feeling better about the direction of the country. The current RCP Right Track/Wrong Track spread stands at -8.0%, which is the first time it's been under negative double digits in quite some time.

I think it's widely accepted that the RT/WT number this year isn't as tightly correlated to the national popular vote as we've seen in the past. Because of the war in Iraq, terrorism and cultural issues like gay marriage, there is a certain level of anxiety in the country and even supporters of President Bush may respond that they feel like we're headed in the wrong direction.

Still, this question is usually asked among respondents using the loosest possible screen (either all adults or registered voters) so it does gauge the general mood of the country and it's certainly better for President Bush that the RT/WT number is improving heading into tomorrow as opposed to going in the other direction.

Lastly, look at Bush's job approval. Fifty percent is generally recognized as the "magic number" on job approval for incumbents to win reelection. As most of you know, this is because the job approval number traditionally correlates most closely with the candidate's final popular vote total. It also just makes common sense: a majority of the country is probably not going to vote a person out of office if they think that person is doing a decent job as President.

Right now the RCP Average of the 8 most recent polls taken over the last 5 days shows President Bush right on the cusp: 49.8%.

Among all job approval numbers, Gallup is generally seen as the "gold standard." In their final poll they have Bush at 51% job approval among likely voters but only 48% among registered voters.

But again, it's important to look at the change in these polls relative to each other to get a feel for which direction Bush's job approval number is heading:

Bush Job Approval
Latest
Last
Net Chg
Marist
50
(10/31)
49
(10/19)
+1
CNN/USAT/Gallup (LV)
51
(10/31)
54
(10/24)
-3
NBC/WSJ
49
(10/31)
49
(10/18)
nc
Battleground
53
(10/31)
53
( 10/28)
nc
CBS/NYT
49
(10/30)
44
( 10/17)
+5
Newsweek
46
(10/29)
46
(10/22)
nc
FOX News
49
(10/28)
49
(10/18)
nc
Democracy Corps (D)
49
(10/31)
48
(10/25)
+1

With the exception of Gallup (which as previously mentioned is a pretty big exception), Bush's job approval has held steady or increased across the other seven polls taken recently. Again, this may or may not be indicative of tomorrow's outcome, but as a general trend the President's job approval numbers seem to be working slightly in his favor.

I'll finish with the traditional caveats about these being national numbers (as opposed to key battleground state numbers) with small sample sizes, blah, blah, blah. Certainly this race will be won or lost in the trenches of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the rest. But the to the extent we can use national polls as pieces of the overall picture and tools to find threads of commonality in the dynamics of this race, these three trends look favorable for President Bush despite the tightening in some of the horse race numbers.



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bushjobapproval; polls; rightwrongtrack; vote

1 posted on 11/01/2004 9:52:03 AM PST by Cableguy
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To: dvwjr; Dales; RWR8189; ambrose; LS; counterpunch; skaterboy; Iowa Granny; Illinois Rep; kesg; ...

ping


2 posted on 11/01/2004 9:53:16 AM PST by Cableguy (Bush wins 53/47)
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To: Cableguy

I'll take it.


3 posted on 11/01/2004 9:55:56 AM PST by rushmom
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To: Cableguy

Nice analysis from the RCP guys.


4 posted on 11/01/2004 9:55:56 AM PST by plushaye (President Bush - Four more years! Thanks Swifties and POWs for Truth.)
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To: Cableguy

But as we've been loading all the various internal numbers from these polls into our averages I've gotten the sense there is another story, one which would seem on the surface to be much more in President Bush's favor.

Thanks for posting...music to my ears!!!


5 posted on 11/01/2004 9:57:31 AM PST by IndianPrincessOK (Native American pleading for Truth!)
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To: Cableguy

BTTT


6 posted on 11/01/2004 9:57:35 AM PST by mondonico (Peace through Superior Firepower)
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To: Cableguy

BTTT


7 posted on 11/01/2004 9:59:20 AM PST by mondonico (Peace through Superior Firepower)
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To: Cableguy

The pollsters should just stop now with the "right track wrong track" stuff. I'd bet that 90% of all of us Bush voters here would answer "wrong track" (i.e "the U.S. going to hell in a handbasket!").

Doesn't mean we blame Bush for it, or that we'll vote for Kerry.


8 posted on 11/01/2004 9:59:35 AM PST by olivia3boys
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To: Cableguy

Everyone needs to keep an eye on the GOP/DEM generic vote, not as an indicator of who will win House seats, but as an indicator of likely turnout by party on election day. This obscure number may be the best sign yet that things will actually work out fine. Ditto for the Senate races. It just doesn't make sense that the Republicans stand to gain as many as five Senate seats, including especially one in Florida, yet be losing at the top of the ticket.


9 posted on 11/01/2004 10:02:41 AM PST by kesg
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To: Cableguy
There is no reason for the RCP guys to be paying attention or even factoring in the 49/49 Gallup poll, or the daily Fox poll, they have problems in their poll that have been explained at the Kerry Spot at NRO and the Horserace blog. Kerry is not leading in any national poll, period.
10 posted on 11/01/2004 10:13:57 AM PST by IrishGOP (John sKerry believes in the UN, I believe in the 101st Airborne Screaming Eagles!)
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To: Cableguy

What I have found interesting in many polls is that while the "head to head" question seems to vascillate, the internals tend to mostly favor Bush. Let's face it, many people are sick of polls.

We may well find that the "internals" are giving a much better picture of where the vote will fall, than with the head to head question.


11 posted on 11/01/2004 10:23:10 AM PST by Paraclete
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

Comment #13 Removed by Moderator

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