THIS TIME, POLLS SHOWING CLOSE RACE A MYTH...

[Greek]

One thing we all have to realize is that there is a conspiracy of sorts between the media, poolsters, and both candidates to report close races. Everyone wins.

1. The media wins because ratings are much higher in a close race than a boring blowout. Ever been to a 40-10 football game? Yawn.

2. Pollsters win with close polls because people on both sides frequently check when a race is "close." Been to RCP lately? Only about every 5 minutes.

3. Bush wins because complacency is a winner's biggest enemy. Ever see a loser in a football game come back from behind because the better team let their guard down? Turnout is hurt when the base perceives a big lead. They reason, "They don't need my vote?" and stay home. Notice that Bush has been saying this was going to be a close race for a year now?

4. Kerry wins for the same reason Bush does. A loser's base is equally turned off from voting when their candidate is likely to get blown away. Have you seen the attendence numbers at an Arizona Wildcat game lately?

The bad news is, I have my suspicions, but I cannot say which one will blow the other out. I guess you will all just have to vote and see.

[Enchante]

This sounds good to me (below) but I don't claim to know which polls or sources are reliable, ever. The only poll that really counts is the one in the voting booths on Tuesday. Hoping for a Bush landslide, but will settle for Bush 52, Kerry 47, Nader 1 as long as the Electoral College numbers add up right for Bush!

From a post on Hannity.com:

From a reliable source on the President's head campaign staff:

Republicans - do not become overconfident. The campaign is not taking anything for granted. Make sure you vote and help elect the President to another four years any way that you can. Call the local party headquarters to volunteer.

Bush polls from inside the campaign:

Florida - Bush +9
Ohio - Bush +7
NH - Bush + 5
NM - Bush +10
Colorado - Bush +12
Wisconsin - Bush +7
Michigan - Bush +3
Iowa - Bush +5
NJ - Even
PA - Bush +1
Maine - Even
MN - Bush +2
WV - Bush +7
Hawaii - Bush +2
NV - Bush +11

[counterpunch]

The bad news is, I have my suspicions, but I cannot say which one will blow the other out. I guess you will all just have to vote and see.

You are part of the mythological "close race" conspiracy too!

[RockinRight]

Where did you get those numbers?

If true, then we're looking at one hell of a butt-whipping by W.

[SquirrelKing]

While it's true that the cell-phone user only crowd tends to be young, they also tend to be people that have jobs, so I think it's a wash.

Hey, that's me! Except for the "wash" part. I don't bathe.

[nelibeli]

Where did you get these numbers? Don't play with my emotions now:)

[cookcounty]

Good analysis. I've thought a lot about this, too. It's in almos teveryone's short-term interest to hype the closeness of a race.

Pollsters HATE lopsided races, they literally take food off the table, while close races can buy you a new Jag.

[counterpunch]

While I don't doubt it, publicly, this is what the Bush campaign is saying:

Matthew Dowd, the president's chief pollster, in an e-mail response to CBSNews.com, says the Bush-Cheney campaign's internal polls also indicate the president is up by three points, "and that is what we think it will end up on Election Day."

Of course this is probably not true in the least. The campaign wants Republicans nervous and motivated to come out to vote, while also keeping them optimistic that we have the slightest upperhand.

[FreeAtlanta]

What the heck is this? John Edward's grooming table?

[cookcounty]

When you look at the internals, Bush is blowing Kerry out of the water in one category after another. Then suddenly it's 2% overall.

Of course the 2% is partly due to the fact this morning's polling took place while evangelicals and conservative catholics were packing out their churches praying for Bush victory.

[Reagan Man]

>>>>And it will be a Bush landslide on Tuesday.

Let's see now. What makes you think Bush is gonna win by 10% or more in the popular vote, and get over 425-450 EV`s?

[Richard Kimball]

It's a vanity. Get it?

[Vapor3]

Where did you get those #'s?

[streetpreacher]

I know this is a flakey source but Dick Morris just presented some information that, at least to me, makes a Bush Win inevitable. The Gender Gap. Gore carried 14 percent more women than he did men and still lost. Kerry is only polling at 7 percent more women than men. Bush is doing better among women because the soccer moms have become the security moms (my words, not Dick's). We're going to win this thing and we're going to do it "Big Time."

[Enchante]

Poster on lucianne.com who referenced a poster on hannity.com

As I said in my first sentence, I make no claims to know which polls or sources are reliable, ever, but this sounded like a nice bit of good cheer that I'd like to believe in until we get the real results. I just can't believe this election is even close - how can anyone outside the committed, demented Democratic base (i.e., 30% of electorate) even THINK of voting for Kerry??? That will bewilder me to my grave, but I'm hoping/expecting that Bush will pull out a thumping victory of at least a few points - landslide would be much better, of course, but at this point I'd settle for a 5-6 point edge.

[streetpreacher]

Did someone say Landslide?

BUSH LANDSLIDE BUMP! SHADES OF 84 AND 88! DEVELOPING...

[streetpreacher]

Did someone say Landslide?

BUSH LANDSLIDE BUMP! SHADES OF 84 AND 88! DEVELOPING...

[streetpreacher]

Did someone say Landslide?

BUSH LANDSLIDE BUMP! SHADES OF 84 AND 88! DEVELOPING...

[streetpreacher]

Did someone say Landslide?

BUSH LANDSLIDE BUMP! SHADES OF 84 AND 88! DEVELOPING...

[Joe_October]

I hope you are right. It would give me a little faith in this country of ours. Why would NY ask for another attack?

[streetpreacher]

Did someone say Landslide?

Oh, okay, I'll stop it already!